Mathematical modelling in animal nutrition: a centenary review

A centenary review presents an opportunity to ponder over the processes of concept development and give thought to future directions. The current review aims to ascertain the ontogeny of current concepts, underline the connection between ideas and people and pay tribute to those pioneers who have contributed significantly to modelling in animal nutrition. Firstly, the paper draws a brief portrait of the use of mathematics in agriculture and animal nutrition prior to 1925. Thereafter, attention turns towards the historical development of growth modelling, feed evaluation systems and animal response models. Introduction of the factorial and compartmental approaches into animal nutrition is noted along with the particular branches of mathematics encountered in various models. Furthermore, certain concepts, especially bioenergetics or the heat doctrine, are challenged and alternatives are reviewed. The current state of knowledge of animal nutrition modelling results mostly from the discernment and unceasing efforts of our predecessors rather than serendipitous discoveries. The current review may stimulate those who wish for greater understanding and appreciation

Variations of the Milankovitch frequencies in time

The sensitivity of the amplitudes and frequencies in the development of the Earth's orbital and rotational elements involved in the astronomical theory of paleoclimates (eccentricity, obliquity, and climate precession), to the Earth-Moon distance and consequently to the length of the day and to the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth has been discussed for the last billions of years. The shortening of the Earth-Moon distance and of the length of the day, as well as the lengthening of the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth back in time induce a shortening of the fundamental astronomical periods for precession and obliquity. At the same time, the amplitudes of the different terms in the development of the obliquity are undergoing a relative enlargement of about 50 percent at 2 x 10(exp 9) yr BP but the independent term is increasing very weakly (less than 0.1 percent). In other words, the value of the obliquity, which lies within a range of 21.7 to 24.9 deg over the Quarternary was restricted to a range of 22.5 to 24.1 deg at 2 x 10(exp 9) yr BP. On the other hand, the amplitudes in the development of the climatic precession do not change. Moreover, these changes in the frequencies and amplitudes for both obliquity and climatic precession are larger for longer period terms. Finally, the periods in the eccentricity development are not influenced by the variation of the lunar distance. But the motion of the solar system, especially of the inner planets, was shown to be chaotic. It means that it is impossible to compute the exact motion of the planets over more than about 100 Myr, and the fundamental frequencies of the systems are not fixed quantities, but are slowly varying with time. As long as we consider the most important terms, the maximum deviation from the present-day value of the 19-kyr precessional period due to the chaotic motion of the solar system only does not reach more than a few tens of years around 80 Myr BP. Therefore the shortening of the obliquity and climatic precession periods is mostly driven by the change in the lunar distance and the consequent variations in the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth's angular speed. At first sight, the deviation in the period for the eccentricity can be neglected, as the chaotic behavior of the solar system implies a relative change of the main periods by less than 0.2 percent, 1.4 percent, and 1.9 percent respectively, this maximum change being achieved around 80 Myr BP. This implies, in particular, that the eccentricity periods for Quarternary climate studies may be considered more or less constant for pre-Quaternay times and equal to their Quaternary values

Evaluation of models to predict the stoichiometry of volatile fatty acid profiles in rumen fluid of lactating Holstein cows

Volatile fatty acids (VFA), produced in the rumen by microbial fermentation, are the main energy source for ruminants. The VFA profile, particularly the nonglucogenic (acetate, Ac; butyrate, Bu) to glucogenic (propionate, Pr) VFA ratio (NGR), is associated with effects on methane production, milk composition, and energy balance. The aim of this study was to evaluate extant rumen VFA stoichiometry models for their ability to predict in vivo VFA molar proportions. The models were evaluated using an independent data set consisting of 101 treatments from 24 peer-reviewed publications with lactating Holstein cows. All publications contained a full diet description, rumen pH, and rumen VFA molar proportions. Stoichiometric models were evaluated based on root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) analysis. Of all models evaluated, the 1998 Friggens model had the lowest RMSPE for Ac and Bu (7.2 and 20.2% of observed mean, respectively). The 2006 Bannink model had the lowest RMSPE and highest CCC for Pr (14.4% and 0.70, respectively). The 2008 Bannink model had comparable predictive performance for Pr to that of the 2006 Bannink model but a larger error due to overall bias (26.2% of MSPE). The 1982 Murphy model provided the poorest prediction of Bu, with the highest RMSPE and lowest CCC (24.6% and 0.15, respectively). The 1988 Argyle and Baldwin model had the highest CCC for Ac with an intermediate RMSPE (0.47 and 8.0%, respectively). The 2006 Sveinbjörnsson model had the highest RMSPE (13.9 and 34.0%, respectively) and lowest CCC (0.31 and 0.40, respectively) for Ac and Pr. The NGR predictions had the lowest RMSPE and highest CCC in the 2 models of Bannink, whereas the lowest predictive performance was in the 2006 Sveinbjörnsson model. It appears that the type of VFA produced is not a simple linear relationship between substrate inputs and pH as currently represented. The analysis demonstrates that most rumen VFA stoichiometric approaches explain a large part of the variation in VFA molar proportions among diets, in particular for Ac, whereas predictive power for Pr and Bu differ largely among approaches. The move toward feed evaluation systems based on animal response might necessitate an improved representation of rumen fermentation, focused on improving our understanding of VFA proportions in diets that vary from the mean

Deep redshift topological lensing: strategies for the T^3 candidate

The 3-torus (T^3) FLRW model better fits the nearly zero large-scale auto-correlation of the WMAP CMB sky maps than the infinite flat model. The T^3 model's WMAP parameters imply approximately equal-redshift topological lensing at z \sim 6. We investigate observational strategies for rejecting the T^3 solution or providing candidate topologically lensed galaxy pairs. T^3 holonomies are applied to (i) existing z \sim 6 observations and (ii) simulated observations, creating multiply connected catalogues. Corresponding simply connected catalogues are generated. Each catalogue is analysed using a successive filter method and collecting matched quadruples. Quadruple statistics between the multiply and simply connected catalogues are compared. The expected rejection of the hypothesis, or detection of candidate topologically lensed galaxies, is possible at a significance of 5% for a pair of T^3 axis-centred northern and southern surveys if photometric redshift accuracy is \sigma(\zphot) < 0.01 for a pair of nearly complete 100 deg^2 surveys with a total of > 500 galaxies over 4.3 < z < 6.6, or for a pair of 196 deg^2 surveys with > 400 galaxies and \sigma(\zphot) < 0.02 over 4<z<7. Dropping the maximum time interval in a pair from \Delta t =1 Gyr/h to \Delta t =0.1 Gyr/h yields a requirement of \sigma(\zphot) < 0.005 or \sigma(\zphot) < 0.01, respectively. Millions of z \sim 6 galaxies will be observed over fields of these sizes during the coming decades, implying much stronger constraints. The question is not if the hypothesis will be rejected or confirmed, it is when.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables, MNRAS, accepte

Modelling the lactation curve of dairy cows using the differentials of growth functions

Descriptions of entire lactations were investigated using six mathematical equations. comprising the differentials of four growth functions (logistic. Gompertz, Schumacher and Morgan) and two other equations (Wood and Dijkstra). The data contained monthly milk yield records from 70 first, 70 second and 75 third parity Iranian Holstein cows. Indicators of fit were model behavior, statistical evaluation and biologically meaningful parameter estimates and lactation features. Analysis of variance with equation, parity and their interaction as factors and with cows as replicates was performed to compare goodness of fit of the equations. The interaction of equation and parity was not significant for any statistics, which showed that there vas no tendency For one equation to fit a given parity better than other equations. Although model behaviour analysis showed better performance of growth functions than the Wood and Dijkstra equations in filling the individual lactation curves, statistical evaluation revealed that there was no significant difference between file goodness of fit of the different equations. Evaluation of lactation features showed that the Dijkstra equation was able to estimate the initial milk yield and peak yield more accurately than the other equations. Overall evaluation of the different equations demonstrated the potential of the differentials of simple empirical growth functions used in file Current study as equations for fitting monthly milk records of Holstein dairy cattle

Far-Ultraviolet Dust Albedo Measurements in the Upper Scorpius Cloud Using the SPINR Sounding Rocket Experiment

The Spectrograph for Photometric Imaging with Numeric Reconstruction (SPINR) sounding rocket experiment was launched on 2000 August 4 to record far-ultraviolet (912-1450 A) spectral and spatial information for the giant reflection nebula in the Upper Scorpius region. The data were divided into three arbitrary bandpasses (912-1029 A, 1030-1200 A, and 1235-1450 A) for which stellar and nebular flux levels were derived. These flux measurements were used to constrain a radiative transfer model and to determine the dust albedo for the Upper Scorpius region. The resulting albedos were 0.28+/-0.07 for the 912-1029 A bandpass, 0.33+/-0.07 for the 1030-1200 A bandpass, and 0.77+/-0.13 for the 1235-1450 A bandpass

GEN MS 25 T.A. Huston & Co. Salesman\u27s Catalog Finding Aid

Description: In the early 1920s, T. A. Huston & Co. of Auburn built a 7-story bakery building in Portland, which became the Glickman Library of USM in the early 1990s. This is a 3-ring binder containing a color facsimile of a salesman\u27s catalog, ca. 1912, of T. A. Huston & Co. Date Range: ca. 1912 Size of Collection: 0.25 ft