7 research outputs found

    The sources of comparative advantage in tourism

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    Tourism flows are usually explained through demand-side factors such as income growth in developed economies and changes in the preferences of visitors. While these models are adequate for short-term forecasts, little theoretical justification is provided to explain why certain countries perform better than others. This paper identifies which countries have a comparative advantage in the export of travel services (tourism). Consequently, the paper seeks to identify the sources of this comparative advantage. We include the standard explanatory variables (factors of production, including natural environment) for Ricardian comparative advantage, plus measures of infrastructure, health, safety and security, tourism prioritization, and various dummy variables. We also develop and test new variables, including a neighbourhood variable, which measures the benefits obtained from regional tourism clusters. Our results have important policy implications; it is clear that the natural environment has a large positive and significant impact on a country’s revealed comparative advantage, as do transport endowments (a measure of relative accessibility) and the neighbourhood variable. These findings correspond to the predictions of the neoclassical trade theories (namely Heckscher-Ohlin) and to some extent the new trade theories (Krugman).tourism, comparative advantage, trade in services

    The population dynamics of the rock hyrax procavia capensis (Pallas, 1766) in the Mountain Zebra National Park

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    The chief objective of the study was to investigate the population dynamics of the hyrax in the Mountain Zebra National Park (MZNP). To realise this objective information on growth, age determination, reproduction, habitat utilization, behaviour, parasites and mortality had to be gathered. The growth of hyrax in relation to age is described by means of Stevens asymptotic regression equations. Near asymptotic measurements are attained first in hind foot length (at 30-33 months of age), head/body length (at 37-39 months of age), girth (at 41-48 months of age) and body mass (at 68-70 months of age). Allometric growth of the various body measurements was investigated and useful predictive relationships for mass are presented. Age determination of hyrax was studied in detail. Cementum annuli counts provided reliable estimates of age. One primary cementum line is formed annually. The dried eye lens mass was an accurate means of age determination up to c. 72 months of age. A summary of findings which will facilitate age determination of dead animals or skulls, and live animals, is provided. Reproduction in the hyrax was studied with emphasis on breeding season, age-specific litter sizes, prenatal mortality and lactation. Male hyrax attained puberty at 15-17 months of age or one year later. Females generally attained puberty at 15-17 months of age. One female (1,4% of total shot sample for the specific age group) attained puberty at 4-5 months of age. Middle-aged hyrax had significantly larger litter sizes than younger animals. Hyrax in the MZNP feed on at least 80 different plant species belonging to 33 plant families. Crude protein of stomach contents and faecal samples showed little seasonal fluctuation implying that hyrax in the MZNP were on a stable quality diet. Female hyrax enjoyed a significantly better quality diet than males for the four month period prior to parturition and during the first two months of lactation. The crude protein values of faecal and stomach samples had a significant correlation. Body fat of male and female hyrax showed seasonal variation related to physiologically stressful periods. Seasonal differences in activity patterns were demonstrated. The basic structure of hyrax social organization is the multi-female kinship group that is matrilocal. Territorial dominant males maintain harems and exclude all other adult males. Peripheral males occupy areas on the periphery of the activity areas of other members of the hyrax colony. Peripheral males do not form bachelor groups and are normally younger than territorial males. It is suggested that territorial males are able to monopolize between 3-17 females in a successful and energetic manner. Both natal and breeding dispersal occurred, the former being considerably more extensive than the latter. The ecto- and endoparasites of hyrax were identified and their burdens quantified over a 13 month period. Juveniles had significantly larger burdens of ectoparasites than did adults. Information on age-specific mortality was obtained from skulls collected in the field and at black eagles' nests. Losses that occurred in the study population due to caracal and black eagle predation were quantified. Evidence is supplied which indicates that juvenile mortality may fluctuate markedly. The population dynamics of the hyrax population in the MZNP was studied by the use of time specific life-tables, models on population growth rates, population simulation models and sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity coefficients were used as a predictor of population regulation. Female juvenile mortality was considered to be the main regulating factor. Changes in fecundity schedule are important compensatory mechanisms and also play an important role in the regulation of a hyrax population. Predation, particularly by caracal, is thought to dampen population fluctuations

    Laparoscopic sterilization of the African lioness (Panthera leo)

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    OBJECTIVE : To describe laparoscopic ovariectomy and salpingectomy in the African lioness (Panthera leo). STUDY DESIGN : Descriptive clinical study. ANIMALS : Female lions (n = 16). METHODS : Lionesses were randomly divided into 2 groups: O = ovariectomy (n = 8) and S = salpingectomy (n = 8) for laparoscopic surgery. Two Veress needle placement techniques were used. RESULTS : Laparoscopic ovariectomy and salpingectomy were performed without complications. The poorly developed mesosalpinx and ovarian bursa rendered the uterine tube more accessible for salpingectomy compared to the dog making the procedure easier in the lioness. Similarly, salpingectomy is a relatively easier procedure compared with ovariectomy especially when the modified Hasson technique for Veress needle placement is used. CONCLUSIONS : Laparoscopic ovariectomy and salpingectomy can be safely performed in the African lioness.University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa and the Arabella Dean fund of the South African Veterinary Foundation. This study was partly funded by the NRF grant of Prof. Schoeman.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1532-950Xhb2013mn201

    Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

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    Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

    South Africa

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    Cardiac myosin activation with omecamtiv mecarbil in systolic heart failure

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    BACKGROUND The selective cardiac myosin activator omecamtiv mecarbil has been shown to improve cardiac function in patients with heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction. Its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. METHODS We randomly assigned 8256 patients (inpatients and outpatients) with symptomatic chronic heart failure and an ejection fraction of 35% or less to receive omecamtiv mecarbil (using pharmacokinetic-guided doses of 25 mg, 37.5 mg, or 50 mg twice daily) or placebo, in addition to standard heart-failure therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of a first heart-failure event (hospitalization or urgent visit for heart failure) or death from cardiovascular causes. RESULTS During a median of 21.8 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 1523 of 4120 patients (37.0%) in the omecamtiv mecarbil group and in 1607 of 4112 patients (39.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 0.99; P = 0.03). A total of 808 patients (19.6%) and 798 patients (19.4%), respectively, died from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.11). There was no significant difference between groups in the change from baseline on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score. At week 24, the change from baseline for the median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level was 10% lower in the omecamtiv mecarbil group than in the placebo group; the median cardiac troponin I level was 4 ng per liter higher. The frequency of cardiac ischemic and ventricular arrhythmia events was similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection, those who received omecamtiv mecarbil had a lower incidence of a composite of a heart-failure event or death from cardiovascular causes than those who received placebo. (Funded by Amgen and others; GALACTIC-HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02929329; EudraCT number, 2016 -002299-28.)

    Ticagrelor in patients with diabetes and stable coronary artery disease with a history of previous percutaneous coronary intervention (THEMIS-PCI) : a phase 3, placebo-controlled, randomised trial

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    Background: Patients with stable coronary artery disease and diabetes with previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), particularly those with previous stenting, are at high risk of ischaemic events. These patients are generally treated with aspirin. In this trial, we aimed to investigate if these patients would benefit from treatment with aspirin plus ticagrelor. Methods: The Effect of Ticagrelor on Health Outcomes in diabEtes Mellitus patients Intervention Study (THEMIS) was a phase 3 randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, done in 1315 sites in 42 countries. Patients were eligible if 50 years or older, with type 2 diabetes, receiving anti-hyperglycaemic drugs for at least 6 months, with stable coronary artery disease, and one of three other mutually non-exclusive criteria: a history of previous PCI or of coronary artery bypass grafting, or documentation of angiographic stenosis of 50% or more in at least one coronary artery. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either ticagrelor or placebo, by use of an interactive voice-response or web-response system. The THEMIS-PCI trial comprised a prespecified subgroup of patients with previous PCI. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (measured in the intention-to-treat population). Findings: Between Feb 17, 2014, and May 24, 2016, 11 154 patients (58% of the overall THEMIS trial) with a history of previous PCI were enrolled in the THEMIS-PCI trial. Median follow-up was 3·3 years (IQR 2·8–3·8). In the previous PCI group, fewer patients receiving ticagrelor had a primary efficacy outcome event than in the placebo group (404 [7·3%] of 5558 vs 480 [8·6%] of 5596; HR 0·85 [95% CI 0·74–0·97], p=0·013). The same effect was not observed in patients without PCI (p=0·76, p interaction=0·16). The proportion of patients with cardiovascular death was similar in both treatment groups (174 [3·1%] with ticagrelor vs 183 (3·3%) with placebo; HR 0·96 [95% CI 0·78–1·18], p=0·68), as well as all-cause death (282 [5·1%] vs 323 [5·8%]; 0·88 [0·75–1·03], p=0·11). TIMI major bleeding occurred in 111 (2·0%) of 5536 patients receiving ticagrelor and 62 (1·1%) of 5564 patients receiving placebo (HR 2·03 [95% CI 1·48–2·76], p<0·0001), and fatal bleeding in 6 (0·1%) of 5536 patients with ticagrelor and 6 (0·1%) of 5564 with placebo (1·13 [0·36–3·50], p=0·83). Intracranial haemorrhage occurred in 33 (0·6%) and 31 (0·6%) patients (1·21 [0·74–1·97], p=0·45). Ticagrelor improved net clinical benefit: 519/5558 (9·3%) versus 617/5596 (11·0%), HR=0·85, 95% CI 0·75–0·95, p=0·005, in contrast to patients without PCI where it did not, p interaction=0·012. Benefit was present irrespective of time from most recent PCI. Interpretation: In patients with diabetes, stable coronary artery disease, and previous PCI, ticagrelor added to aspirin reduced cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke, although with increased major bleeding. In that large, easily identified population, ticagrelor provided a favourable net clinical benefit (more than in patients without history of PCI). This effect shows that long-term therapy with ticagrelor in addition to aspirin should be considered in patients with diabetes and a history of PCI who have tolerated antiplatelet therapy, have high ischaemic risk, and low bleeding risk
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