The Carbon-Deficient Evolution of TRAPPIST-1c

Transiting planets orbiting M dwarfs provide the best opportunity to study the atmospheres of rocky planets with current facilities. As JWST enters its second year of science operations, an important initial endeavor is to determine whether these rocky planets have atmospheres at all. M dwarf host stars are thought to pose a major threat to planetary atmospheres due to their high magnetic activity over several billion-year timescales, and might completely strip atmospheres. Several Cycle 1 and 2 GO and GTO programs are testing this hypothesis, observing a series of rocky planets to determine whether they retained their atmospheres. A key case-study is TRAPPIST-1c, which receives almost the same bolometric flux as Venus. We might, therefore, expect TRAPPIST-1c to possess a thick, $\mathrm{CO}_2$-dominated atmosphere. Instead, Zieba et al. (2023) show that TRAPPIST-1c has little to no CO$_2$ in its atmosphere. To interpret these results, we run coupled time-dependent simulations of planetary outgassing and atmospheric escape to model the evolution of TRAPPIST-1c's atmosphere. We find that the stellar wind stripping that is expected to occur on TRAPPIST-1c over its lifetime can only remove up to $\sim 16$ bar of $\mathrm{CO}_2$, less than the modern $\mathrm{CO}_2$ inventory of either Earth or Venus. Therefore, we infer that TRAPPIST-1c either formed volatile-poor, as compared to Earth and Venus, or lost a substantial amount of $\mathrm{CO}_2$ during an early phase of hydrodynamic hydrogen escape. Finally, we scale our results for the other TRAPPIST-1 planets, finding that the more distant TRAPPIST-1 planets may readily retain atmospheres.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, 1 table, accepted to Ap

Report on the State of Available Data for the Study of International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

This report, prepared for the Committee on Economic Statistics of the American Economic Association, examines the state of available data for the study of international trade and foreign direct investment. Data on values of imports and exports of goods are of high quality and coverage, but price data suffer from insufficient detail. It would be desirable to have more data measuring value-added in trade as well as prices of comparable domestic and imported inputs. Value data for imports and exports of services are too aggregated and valuations are questionable, while price data for service exports and imports are almost non-existent. Foreign direct investment data are of high quality but quality has suffered from budget cuts. Data on trade in intellectual property are fragmentary. The intangibility of the trade makes measurement difficult, but budget cuts have added to the difficulties. Modest funding increases would result in data more useful for research and policy analysis.

Mantle Degassing Lifetimes through Galactic Time and the Maximum Age Stagnant-lid Rocky Exoplanets can Support Temperate Climates

The ideal exoplanets to search for life are those within a star's habitable zone. However, even within the habitable zone planets can still develop uninhabitable climate states. Sustaining a temperate climate over geologic ($\sim$Gyr) timescales requires a planet contain sufficient internal energy to power a planetary-scale carbon cycle. A major component of a rocky planet's energy budget is the heat produced by the decay of radioactive elements, especially $^{40}$K, $^{232}$Th, $^{235}$U and $^{238}$U. As the planet ages and these elements decay, this radiogenic energy source dwindles. Here we estimate the probability distribution of the amount of these heat producing elements (HPEs) that enter into rocky exoplanets through Galactic history, by combining the system-to-system variation seen in stellar abundance data with the results from Galactic chemical evolution models. Using these distributions, we perform Monte-Carlo thermal evolution models that maximize the mantle cooling rate. This allows us to create a pessimistic estimate of lifetime a rocky, stagnant-lid exoplanet can support a global carbon cycle and temperate climate as a function of its mass and when it in Galactic history. We apply this framework to a sample of 17 likely rocky exoplanets with measured ages, 7 of which we predict are likely to be actively degassing today despite our pessimistic assumptions. For the remaining planets, including those orbiting TRAPPIST-1, we cannot confidently assume they currently contain sufficient internal heat to support mantle degassing at a rate sufficient to sustain a global carbon cycle or temperate climate without additional tidal heating or undergoing plate tectonics.Comment: Accepted to ApJ Letter