Secondary Fault Activity of the North Anatolian Fault near Avcilar, Southwest of Istanbul: Evidence from SAR Interferometry Observations

Strike-slip faults may be traced along thousands of kilometers, e.g., the San Andreas Fault (USA) or the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey). A closer look at such continental-scale strike faults reveals localized complexities in fault geometry, associated with fault segmentation, secondary faults and a change of related hazards. The North Anatolian Fault displays such complexities nearby the mega city Istanbul, which is a place where earthquake risks are high, but secondary processes are not well understood. In this paper, long-term persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data time series was used to precisely identify the surface deformation pattern associated with the faulting complexity at the prominent bend of the North Anatolian Fault near Istanbul city. We elaborate the relevance of local faulting activity and estimate the fault status (slip rate and locking depth) for the first time using satellite SAR interferometry (InSAR) technology. The studied NW-SE-oriented fault on land is subject to strike-slip movement at a mean slip rate of ~5.0 mm/year and a shallow locking depth of <1.0 km and thought to be directly interacting with the main fault branch, with important implications for tectonic coupling. Our results provide the first geodetic evidence on the segmentation of a major crustal fault with a structural complexity and associated multi-hazards near the inhabited regions of Istanbul, with similarities also to other major strike-slip faults that display changes in fault traces and mechanisms

Secondary Fault Activity of the North Anatolian Fault near Avcilar, Southwest of Istanbul: Evidence from SAR Interferometry Observations

Strike-slip faults may be traced along thousands of kilometers, e.g., the San Andreas Fault (USA) or the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey). A closer look at such continental-scale strike faults reveals localized complexities in fault geometry, associated with fault segmentation, secondary faults and a change of related hazards. The North Anatolian Fault displays such complexities nearby the mega city Istanbul, which is a place where earthquake risks are high, but secondary processes are not well understood. In this paper, long-term persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) analysis of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data time series was used to precisely identify the surface deformation pattern associated with the faulting complexity at the prominent bend of the North Anatolian Fault near Istanbul city. We elaborate the relevance of local faulting activity and estimate the fault status (slip rate and locking depth) for the first time using satellite SAR interferometry (InSAR) technology. The studied NW-SE-oriented fault on land is subject to strike-slip movement at a mean slip rate of ~5.0 mm/year and a shallow locking depth of &lt;1.0 km and thought to be directly interacting with the main fault branch, with important implications for tectonic coupling. Our results provide the first geodetic evidence on the segmentation of a major crustal fault with a structural complexity and associated multi-hazards near the inhabited regions of Istanbul, with similarities also to other major strike-slip faults that display changes in fault traces and mechanisms

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake