A simulation study of Texas hold 'em poker: what Taylor Swift understands and James Bond doesn't

Recent years have seen a large increase in the popularity of Texas hold ’em poker. It is now the most commonly played variant of the game, both in casinos and through online platforms. In this paper, we present a simulation study for games of Texas hold ’em with between two and 23 players. From these simulations, we estimate the probabilities of each player having been dealt the winning hand. These probabilities are calculated conditional on both partial information (that is, the player only having knowledge of his/her cards) and also on fuller information (that is, the true probabilities of each player winning given knowledge of the cards dealt to each player). Where possible, our estimates are compared to exact analytic results and are shown to have converged to three significant figures. With these results, we assess the poker strategies described in two recent pieces of popular culture. In comparing the ideas expressed in Taylor Swift’s song, New Romantics, and the betting patterns employed by James Bond in the 2006 film, Casino Royale, we conclude that Ms Swift demonstrates a greater understanding of the true probabilities of winning a game of Texas hold ’em poker. doi:10.1017/S144618111800015

Next generation water efficiency: looking over the horizon

After major investment during the Millennium drought, many Australian cities have become more resilient by diversifying their water supplies with desalination, water recycling, rain tanks, and importantly, increased water efficiency through both programs and regulations. The achievements in efficiency such as reduced per capita demand and success of large-scale demand management programs, are internationally recognised. However, with both Sydney and Melbourne heading towards mega-city status by mid-century, further increases in efficiency must be considered. This paper explores the technologies, behavioural interfaces and programs that could aid Australia’s next generation of water efficiency

The bathroom of the future - prospects for information and control

Across sectors, innovative data collection at a device level and command and control appliances, are providing an opportunity for improved resource efficiencies, facilities management and user experiences. The applications of intelligent technologies and localised networks are growing rapidly. This discussion paper demonstrates the value and potential applications of smart water management technologies specifically focused on commercial bathroom products. The work was commissioned by the GWA Bathrooms and Kitchens Group. The paper has been developed using available knowledge, with a literature scan of fixture driven innovations, innovations in collecting and using data from fixtures and other monitoring devices

Strategies for Imputation of High-Resolution Environmental Data in Clinical Randomized Controlled Trials.

Time series data collected in clinical trials can have varying degrees of missingness, adding challenges during statistical analyses. An additional layer of complexity is introduced for missing data in randomized controlled trials (RCT), where researchers must remain blinded between intervention and control groups. Such restriction severely limits the applicability of conventional imputation methods that would utilize other participants' data for improved performance. This paper explores and compares various methods to impute high-resolution temperature logger data in RCT settings. In addition to the conventional non-parametric approaches, we propose a spline regression (SR) approach that captures the dynamics of indoor temperature by time of day that is unique to each participant. We investigate how the inclusion of external temperature and energy use can improve the model performance. Results show that SR imputation results in 16% smaller root mean squared error (RMSE) compared to conventional imputation methods, with the gap widening to 22% when more than half of data is missing. The SR method is particularly useful in cases where missingness occurs simultaneously for multiple participants, such as concurrent battery failures. We demonstrate how proper modelling of periodic dynamics can lead to significantly improved imputation performance, even with limited data

Usefulness of regional right ventricular and right atrial strain for prediction of early and late right ventricular failure following a left ventricular assist device implant: A machine learning approach

Background: Identifying candidates for left ventricular assist device surgery at risk of right ventricular failure remains difficult. The aim was to identify the most accurate predictors of right ventricular failure among clinical, biological, and imaging markers, assessed by agreement of different supervised machine learning algorithms. Methods: Seventy-four patients, referred to HeartWare left ventricular assist device since 2010 in two Italian centers, were recruited. Biomarkers, right ventricular standard, and strain echocardiography, as well as cath-lab measures, were compared among patients who did not develop right ventricular failure (N = 56), those with acute–right ventricular failure (N = 8, 11%) or chronic–right ventricular failure (N = 10, 14%). Logistic regression, penalized logistic regression, linear support vector machines, and naïve Bayes algorithms with leave-one-out validation were used to evaluate the efficiency of any combination of three collected variables in an “all-subsets” approach. Results: Michigan risk score combined with central venous pressure assessed invasively and apical longitudinal systolic strain of the right ventricular–free wall were the most significant predictors of acute–right ventricular failure (maximum receiver operating characteristic–area under the curve = 0.95, 95% confidence interval = 0.91–1.00, by the naïve Bayes), while the right ventricular–free wall systolic strain of the middle segment, right atrial strain (QRS-synced), and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion were the most significant predictors of Chronic-RVF (receiver operating characteristic–area under the curve = 0.97, 95% confidence interval = 0.91–1.00, according to naïve Bayes). Conclusion: Apical right ventricular strain as well as right atrial strain provides complementary information, both critical to predict acute–right ventricular failure and chronic–right ventricular failure, respectively

Language-Related Brain Potentials in Patients With Disorders of Consciousness: A Follow-up Study to Detect “Covert” Language Disorders

Background. Language disorders may occur in patients with disorders of consciousness (DoCs), and they could interfere with the behavioral assessment of consciousness and responsiveness. Objective. In this study, we retrospectively explored whether ERP N400 was eventually associated with the presence of aphasia diagnosed in those patients who had evolved into Exit-Minimally Conscious State (E-MCS) at the clinical follow-up. Methods. In this retrospective cohort study, the ERPs elicited by an auditory sentences task were retrospectively examined in a sample of 15 DoC patients diagnosed according to the Coma Recovery Scale–Revised (CRS-R). All these 15 DoC patients underwent a (at least) 1-year clinical follow-up, which included a neuropsychological evaluation to assess language function among other cognitive functions. Ten healthy individuals also underwent the same paradigm to investigate the variability of ERPs characteristics. Results. The N400 ERP component with centroparietal topography was found in 9 of 10 healthy controls in response to the ill-formed sentences. Analysis of patients’ data revealed that (1) a significant N400 component could be detected in 64% (9 of 14 patients) of the DoC patients regardless of the type of DoC; (2) no significant N400 ERP component was retrospectively detected in those E-MCS patients who showed aphasia at the follow-up; and (3) the presence/absence of the N400-ERP component was consistent with the brain lesion side and significantly predict the recovery. Conclusion. These preliminary findings indicate that the absence of N400 was significantly associated with the presence of aphasia diagnosed at the clinical follow-up in E-MCS patients

Parental attachment and depressive symptoms in pregnancies complicated by twin-twin transfusion syndrome: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is a highly morbid condition in which treatment exists, but the pregnancy remains high-risk until delivery. It may have serious sequelae, including fetal death, and in the longer term, neurodevelopmental problems. The aim of this study is to assess antenatal and postnatal parental attachment and depressive symptoms in those with pregnancies affected by TTTS. METHODS: Couples attending for fetoscopic laser ablation treatment of TTTS were asked to complete Condon's Maternal/Paternal Antenatal/Postnatal Attachment Scale as appropriate, and the Edinburgh Depression Scale the day before ablation, 4 weeks post-ablation, and 6-10 weeks postnatally. RESULTS: 25/27 couples completed the pre-ablation questionnaire (median gestational age 19 + 3 weeks [interquartile range 18 + 2-20 + 6]). 8/18 eligible couples returned the post-ablation questionnaire. 5/17 eligible couples returned the postnatal questionnaire. There was no significant difference in parento-fetal attachment when mothers were compared to fathers at each time point, however parento-fetal attachment did increase over time in mothers (p = 0.004), but not fathers. Mothers reported more depressive symptoms antenatally compared to fathers (p < 0.02), but there was no difference postnatally. 50% women reported Edinburgh Depression Scale scores above the cut-off (≥15) 4 weeks post-ablation. Over time maternal depressive symptoms decreased (p = 0.006), however paternal depressive symptoms remained the same. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first attachment and depression study in a UK cohort of parents with pregnancies affected by TTTS. Although this was a small cohort and the questionnaires used had not been validated in these circumstances, the results suggest that centres caring for these couples should be aware of the risk of maternal and paternal antenatal depression, and screen and refer for additional psychological support. Further work is needed in larger cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 13114861 (retrospectively registered)