Financial Sector Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

This paper analyzes the effects of financial sector deepening on economic growth using a province-level data set for 1996-2001 on Turkey. This period is associated with a weakly regulated and relatively unsupervised expansion of the banking sector which led to the 2001 financial crisis. Contrary to findings in the previous literature, our results indicate a strong negative relationship between financial deepening-both public and private-and economic growth. In light of the developments in the period of analysis, this result is not surprising, as the main function of the banking sector at that time was to provide financing for the Turkish Treasury, which channeled these funds to the government-albeit mainly for rent distribution purposes. However, it is important to note that the growth of private banking sector needs yet to be examined separately, as government ownership of banks may distort the development of the banking sector as a whole. Yet, it is possible to conclude that financial development may not always contribute to economic growth, and the conditions under which such a contribution takes place should be investigated further.Financial sector; Economic growth; Panel data; GMM; Turkey

International banking and cross-border effects of regulation: Lessons from Canada

We study how changes in prudential requirements affect cross-border lending of Canadian banks by utilizing an index that aggregates adjustments in key regulatory instruments across jurisdictions. We show that when a destination country tightens local prudential measures, Canadian banks lend more to that jurisdiction, and the effect is particularly significant when capital requirements are tightened and weaker if banks lend mainly via affiliates. Our evidence also suggests that Canadian banks adjust foreign lending in response to domestic regulatory changes. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneous spillover effects of foreign prudential requirements

Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding

Some evidence points to the procyclicality of leverage among financial institutions leading to aggregate volatility. This procyclicality occurs when financial institutions finance their assets with non-equity funding (i.e., debt financed asset expansions). Wholesale funding is an important source of market-based funding that allows some institutions to quickly adjust their leverage. As such, financial institutions that rely on wholesale funding are expected to have higher degrees of leverage procyclicality. Using high frequency balance sheet data for the universe of banks, this study tries to identify (i) if such a positive link exists between the assets and leverage in Canada, (ii) how wholesale funding plays a role for this link, and (iii) market and macroeconomic factors associated with this link. The findings of the empirical analysis suggest that a strong positive link exists between asset growth and leverage growth, and the use to wholesale funding is an important determinant of this relationship. Furthermore, liquidity of several short-term funding markets matters for procyclicality of leverage.Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies; Recent economic and financial developments

Household Insolvency in Canada

With increasing levels of household debt in recent years, the number of households that may be vulnerable to a negative economic shock is rising as well. Decisions made by both the debtor and the creditor can contribute to insolvency. This article presents some stylized facts about insolvency in Canada’s household sector and analyzes the role of creditors in insolvencies. The average debt of an individual filing for bankruptcy is more than 1.5 times that of an average Canadian household; bankruptcy filers tend to be unemployed or in low-wage jobs, and are typically renters. The article reports that banks that approve more loans per branch, which is interpreted as less-intensive use of soft information (such as the loan officer’s assessment of the applicant’s character), experience more client bankruptcies. This finding has important policy implications, because financial institutions that do not use soft information risk further deterioration in their lending portfolios.

Effects of Funding Portfolios on the Credit Supply of Canadian Banks

This paper studies how banks simultaneously manage the two sides of their balance sheet and its implications for bank risk taking and real economic activity. First, we analyze how changes in funding affect the supply of bank loans. We then examine how the supply of credit by banks that rely more on wholesale funding changed during periods of lowfor- long interest rates and during the recent financial crisis. The findings suggest that contemporaneous changes in wholesale funding are positively associated with large business loans. In addition, we find that banks that rely on wholesale funding tend to increase mortgage loans in a prolonged low rate environment. This is suggestive evidence that these banks may be taking on more liquidity risk by supplying long-term loans with short-term funding. We also find that mortgage lending by banks relying more on wholesale funding increased, a likely result of government policies to increase liquidity in the market during the crisis

Consumer Bankruptcy, Bank Mergers, and Information

This article analyzes the relationship between consumer bankruptcy patterns and the destruction of soft information caused by mergers. Using a major Canadian bank merger as a source of exogenous variation in local banking conditions, we show that local markets affected by the merger exhibit an increase in consumer bankruptcy rates post-merger. The evidence is consistent with the most plausible mechanism being the disruption of consumer–bank relationships. Markets affected by the merger show a decrease in the merging institutions’ branch presence and market share, including those stemming from higher switching rates. We rule out alternative mechanisms such as changes in quantity of credit, loan rates, or observable borrower characteristics.David Martinez-Miera acknowledges Financial support from Banco de España "II Programa de Excelencia en Educación e Investigación", Fundación Ramon Areces and Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación "ECO2013-42849-P" and "JCI-2011-08963