Kalite Artislari ve Enflasyon : Turkiye Ornegi

In this study, average quality growth and upward inflation bias are estimated for a set of 51 goods by using six waves of TURKSTAT Household Budget Surveys from 2003 to 2008 and consumer prices in Turkey. Using instrumental variables approach suggested by Bils and Klenow (2001), the annual average quality growth for these items over this period is estimated to be 3.88 percent, of which 2.03 percentage points have shown up as in consumer price inflation.Inflation rates, Quality bias

The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design

Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups -- i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers|have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes

The Impact of Labour Income Risk on Household Saving Decisions in Turkey (Turkiye'de Isgucu Geliri Riskinin Hanehalki Tasarruf Kararlari Uzerindeki Etkisi)

I analyse the Household Budget Surveys prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) to reveal the empirical importance of precautionary saving in Turkey. The most difficult aspect of the empirical analysis is the approximation of labour income risk as a proxy variable for future labour income uncertainty. Individual disposable income is interacted with the probability of being unemployed and with the probability of job-loss in the next period to generate the labour income risk variables. The econometric results support the precautionary saving hypothesis and labour income risk emerges as one of the main determinants of household saving decisions. Moreover, households implement alternative strategies to smooth their income streams such as holding a second job and increasing the number of income earners in the family. However, it is observed that they are still vulnerable against labour income risk, which underlines the need for a satisfactory social security system.Precautionary Saving, Labour Income Risk, Unemployment Insurance

Quality Growth versus Inflation in Turkey

We estimate average quality growth and upward inflation bias for a set of 51 goods in Turkey by using 7 waves of Household Budget Survey from 2003 to 2009 and TURKSTAT prices. We employ instrumental variables approach introduced by Bils and Klenow (2001). We find that average quality growth in Turkey is 3.93 percent. Of this 3.93 percent, 2.28 percent is not netted out by TURKSTAT. Consequently, for the set of goods that we study, the estimated inflation bias is 2.28 percentage points.Quality bias, Inflation rates

Kalite Artislari ve Enflasyon : Turkiye Ornegi

Bu calismada, 2003 ile 2008 yillari arasindaki TUIK Hanehalki Butce Anketleri ve tuketici fiyatlari kullanilarak Turkiye’de 51 urun icin ortalama kalite artislari ve enflasyon yanliligi tahmin edilmektedir. Bils ve Klenow (2001) tarafindan onerilen arac degiskenler yontemi kullanilarak elde edilen sonuclara gore, secilen donem ve urunler icin Turkiye’de yillik ortalama kalite artisi yuzde 4 civarindadir. Soz konusu urunlerdeki kalite artisindan kaynaklanan ek fiyat artisi ise yaklasik yuzde 2 puan olarak hesaplanmaktadir.

The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design

Abstract Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups, i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers, have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited