Business Cycle Models and Stylized Facts in Germany

The aim of this paper is to test to what extent a benchmark real and monetary business cycle model can account for some basic stylized facts with a particular emphasis on monetary variables. We calibrate the model on German data using the method proposed by Cooley and Prescott (1995). First we will analyze the dynamic properties of the models, the Impulse Response Functions and propose a variance decomposition (for the monetary BC Models). We find that even though money is not neutral in the short run, the effect of a monetary shock is only marginal compared to the productivity shock, i.e. the share of the variance of the monetary shock in the total variance of the forecast error is small and decreases rapidly. We simulate the models and compare the properties of the model economies with those of the observed data. The evidence suggests that the benchmark RBC model can account for some stylized facts in Germany. The general pattern of the relative volatilities of investment, output and consumption is replicated by the model. Nevertheless, the overall volatility is too high and the level of the relative volatilities is not well reproduced. The introduction of exogenous monetary shocks and a cash-in-advance constraint increases the relative volatilities and the cross correlation of consumption. In general the second order moments of money (M1) and inflation are not well reproduced.business cycles; money; variance decomposition

Stochastic Nominal Wage Contacts in a Cash-in-Advance Model

We build a simple cash-in-advance model for the German economy, in which we introduce stochastic nominal wage contracts. This allows to weaken the negative effect of the inflation tax such that monetary shocks exert a positive effect on output dynamics. The nominal wage contract model is able to mimic the correlation of inflation and real balances with output. It also lowers the standard deviation of inflation relative to that of output. Further, the variance decomposition analysis indicates that in this setting, monetary shocks explain between 30% and 45% of output volatility in the first quarter. Moreover, it indicates that this model generates a long lasting effect of monetary shocks on output dynamics.Business Cycle; Money; Persistence; Nominal Wage Contracts

Poole Revisited

We study the properties of alternative central bank targeting procedures in a general equilibrium, monetary model with labor contracts, endogenous velocity and three shocks: money demand, supply and fiscal. Money demand -velocity- shocks emerge as the main source of macroeconomic volatility. Consequently, nominal interest rate targeting results in greater stability than money targeting. Interestingly this holds independent of the type of the shock (unlike Poole). Interest rate targeting also generates a substantially higher level of welfare.Central Bank; Targeting Procedures; Velocity Shocks; Business Cycles

Money injections and business cycles

Doctorat - UCL

Vulnérabilité extérieure et régime de change: le cas des pays de l'Est candidats à l'Union européenne

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe