Discussing Concepts of Terrorist Rationality: Implications for Counter-Terrorism Policy

Scholars of terrorism studies have long struggled to agree on a common understanding of what terrorism is. To date, they have agreed on little more than the fact that terrorism is difficult to define. As a consequence, more than 100, if not more than 200 modern definitions of terrorism have been formulated. Within those definitions, different aspects of terrorism are stressed including the underlying motivations, applied tactics and chosen targets. While no consensus has been found on how to define terrorism or terrorists, a meta-study by Schmid and Jongman (1988) provides fruitful insight into the most relevant aspects of definitions of terrorism which have proven valid to the present day. The two researchers analyzed various academic and official definitions of terrorism and identified three main elements as being vital to define terrorism; (1) the use (or threat) of violence1, (2) political objectives and (3) the intention of sowing fear in a target population as a means of achieving these political objectives.

Effective Counterterrorism: What Have We Learned so Far?

The fight against terrorism, in particular of Islamist nature, has become a focus area of foreign and security policies in Western countries and around the world. This substantial effort is however only to a limited extent matched by adequate evaluations as to its actual success. This paper offers an overview of the counterterrorism effectiveness literature in terms of main areas of interest, conceptualisation and operationalisation difficulties as well as methodological considerations regarding the types of methods used, validity and reliability evaluations. It discusses the different understandings of causality and proposes a working definition of counterterrorism effectiveness. We find that a main focus of the literature lies on the impact component of effectiveness, often in the sense of a reduction of terrorist attacks in general or a reduction of certain methods of terrorism such as suicide attacks. Our model article "What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model" by Kaplan et al. (2005) illustrates the above-mentioned issues and reflects the mainstream approach in this field. The article uses econometric methods to determine the impact-effectiveness of counter-terrorism and reflects the problematique associated with attempts to infer a causal relationship between counterterrorism policies and the occurrence of terrorism.Counterterrorism, effectiveness, causality, quantitative and qualitative research methods

Counterterrorism - Does It Work?

The terrorist threat has increased in importance over the last decade and Western governments have implemented a multitude of measures to address it. Their numbers and the significant financial cost they involve have, however, not been matched with an adequate evaluation of effectiveness. We can therefore only make limited statements on whether or not counterterrorism policy has been effective. Three conclusions with policy implications can nevertheless be drawn from our analysis: the dependency on the local context; the ineffectiveness of measures entailing the use of force; and the need for more evaluation research on protective measures.

Why Militant Groups Fight Each Other: The Role of Support, Political Objectives and Revenge

Most of the research on terrorism studies the relationship between militant groups and targeted states. This means that we actually know little about the role of violence in intergroup relationships. Previous research has claimed that such forms of violence occur regularly but underlying patterns and motives remain under-researched. This paper seeks to advance understanding of inter-terrorist group violence both among groups with shared and competing objectives. It particularly aims to analyze the characteristics of inter-group violence and also tries to determine if such violence reflects strategic decision-making or if it rather stems from expressive motives. The paper uses a mixed method approach which combines quantitative and qualitative analyses for a sample of countries. Data is primarily obtained from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and complemented with further datasets, reports and other qualitative sources. Results indicate that inter-group violence has taken place both among terrorist groups with competing and shared objectives but remained limited in absolute numbers. The low levels of incidents do not mean that disputes have not arisen but competition has rather unfolded on a verbal level or as low-level violence including intimidation and exiling. A case study on Northern Ireland is then used to elaborate on the particular drivers and dynamics of such violence. Results further show that violence among militants has mostly been driven by strategic considerations of the actors involved. When groups clashed it was usually for a purpose beyond emotional satisfaction and regularly related to a fight for support and influence

Discussing Concepts of Terrorist Rationality: Implications for Counter-Terrorism Policy

Scholars of terrorism studies have long struggled to agree on a common understanding of what terrorism is. To date, they have agreed on little more than the fact that terrorism is difficult to define. As a consequence, more than 100, if not more than 200 modern definitions of terrorism have been formulated. Within those definitions, different aspects of terrorism are stressed including the underlying motivations, applied tactics and chosen targets. While no consensus has been found on how to define terrorism or terrorists, a meta-study by Schmid and Jongman (1988) provides fruitful insight into the most relevant aspects of definitions of terrorism which have proven valid to the present day. The two researchers analyzed various academic and official definitions of terrorism and identified three main elements as being vital to define terrorism; (1) the use (or threat) of violence1, (2) political objectives and (3) the intention of sowing fear in a target population as a means of achieving these political objectives

Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part focuses on the direct and indirect costs of both terrorism and organised crime. EUSECON provided new data about the scope of related illegal economic activities and explored the sensitivity of markets, societies and polities in the aftermath of terrorist attacks. It emerges that political actors are at greatest risk of over-responding, whereas mature economies display a high degree of resilience. Finally, the third part discusses economic approaches to policy evaluation. EUSECON clarified the benefits of transnational security cooperation, but also highlights the difficulties of rigorous costeffectiveness and cost-benefit calculations. Therefore, a more evidence-based approach to security policymaking, which is increasingly touted by EU decision-makers, remains elusive. In conclusion, European security policy needs further scrutiny from an economic perspective, in order to answer the increasing complexity of security challenges under the increasing financial or political constraints.

Herausforderungen bei der Messung von Kriminalitätsfurcht

Furcht vor Kriminalität ist ein entscheidender gesellschaftlicher Faktor, der sowohl die individuelle Selbstentfaltung als auch das gesamtgesellschaftliche Klima stark beeinflusst. Kriminalitätsfurcht ist zudem wirtschaftlich relevant: Einerseits kann Kriminalitätsfurcht einen negativen Einfluss auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung ausüben. Sie kann andererseits – über eine veränderte Ausgabenstruktur von Firmen und Privatpersonen – auch zu überdurchschnittlichem Wachstum in einzelnen Wirtschaftsbereichen, etwa der Sicherheitsindustrie, führen. Die Messung der Furcht vor Kriminalität an sich und ihre Erklärung sind seit den 1970er Jahren ein zentrales Forschungsthema.Dabei reichen die Ansätze in der Furchtmessung von unidimensionalen, auf Kriminalität im Allgemeinen bezogenen Einschätzungen, hin zu mehrdimensionalen Erklärungsansätzen

Counterterrorism - Does It Work?

The terrorist threat has increased in importance over the last decade and Western governments have implemented a multitude of measures to address it. Their numbers and the significant financial cost they involve have, however, not been matched with an adequate evaluation of effectiveness. We can therefore only make limited statements on whether or not counterterrorism policy has been effective. Three conclusions with policy implications can nevertheless be drawn from our analysis: the dependency on the local context; the ineffectiveness of measures entailing the use of force; and the need for more evaluation research on protective measures

Effective Counterterrorism: What Have We Learned so Far?

The fight against terrorism, in particular of Islamist nature, has become a focus area of foreign and security policies in Western countries and around the world. This substantial effort is however only to a limited extent matched by adequate evaluations as to its actual success. This paper offers an overview of the counterterrorism effectiveness literature in terms of main areas of interest, conceptualisation and operationalisation difficulties as well as methodological considerations regarding the types of methods used, validity and reliability evaluations. It discusses the different understandings of causality and proposes a working definition of counterterrorism effectiveness. We find that a main focus of the literature lies on the impact component of effectiveness, often in the sense of a reduction of terrorist attacks in general or a reduction of certain methods of terrorism such as suicide attacks. Our model article "What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model" by Kaplan et al. (2005) illustrates the above-mentioned issues and reflects the mainstream approach in this field. The article uses econometric methods to determine the impact-effectiveness of counter-terrorism and reflects the problematique associated with attempts to infer a causal relationship between counterterrorism policies and the occurrence of terrorism

Security Economics in the European Context: Implications of the EUSECON Project

This paper presents key aspects and policy implications of a multi-annual research project on economic analyses of European security issues (EUSECON), with an emphasis on intentional threats of organised crime, piracy and terrorism. The first part argues that rational models can provide significant insights on the emergence and current patterns of terrorism and piracy. These findings could lead to new priorities or to more nuanced interventions in response to these threats. The second part focuses on the direct and indirect costs of both terrorism and organised crime. EUSECON provided new data about the scope of related illegal economic activities and explored the sensitivity of markets, societies and polities in the aftermath of terrorist attacks. It emerges that political actors are at greatest risk of over-responding, whereas mature economies display a high degree of resilience. Finally, the third part discusses economic approaches to policy evaluation. EUSECON clarified the benefits of transnational security cooperation, but also highlights the difficulties of rigorous costeffectiveness and cost-benefit calculations. Therefore, a more evidence-based approach to security policymaking, which is increasingly touted by EU decision-makers, remains elusive. In conclusion, European security policy needs further scrutiny from an economic perspective, in order to answer the increasing complexity of security challenges under the increasing financial or political constraints