Short-run dynamics of income disparities and regional cycle synchronization

Since the 1990s, the issue of regional income convergence and its long term tendencies has been thoroughly and heatedly discussed. Far less attention, however, has been devoted to the short-run dynamics of regional convergence. In particular, three important aspects have not yet been adequately addressed. Firstly, it is indeed essential to understand whether regional disparities manifest a tendency to move systematically along the national cycle. Then, if this happens to be the case, it becomes crucial to know whether: i. these movements are pro- or counter-cyclical, ii. the cyclical evolution of the disparities is a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt across regions or it is motivated by the amplitude differences across local cyclical swings. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data on personal income for the 48 coterminous US states between 1969 and 2008.cyclical income disparities, regional business cycles, synchronization

An integrated model for cash transfer system design problem

This paper presents an integrated model that incorporates strategic, tactical, and operational decisions for a cash transfer management system of a bank. The aim of the model is to decide on the location of cash management centers, number and routes of vehicles, and the cash inventory management policies to minimize the cost of owning and operating a cash transfer system while maintaining a pre-defined service level. Owing to the difficulty of finding optimal decisions in such integrated models, an iterative solution approach is proposed in which strategic, tactical, and operational problems are solved separately via a feedback mechanism. Numerical results show that such an approach is quite effective in reaching greatly improved solutions with just a few iterations, making it a promising approach for similar integrated models

Regional inflation convergence in Turkey

The aim of the present article is to analyze the convergence of regional inflation rates in Turkey from 2004 to 2015 by adopting a distribution dynamics approach, namely discrete time Markovian chains. Convergence across regional inflation rates is politically a crucial matter for two reasons. First, if inflation rates differ largely between regions, monetary policy can hardly satisfy the needs of all regions equally. Such that, places which experience high inflation rates naturally require a contractionary monetary policy while the ones which experience low inflation need rather an expansionary monetary stance. Second, inflation differentials are likely to create a regional dispersion in real interest rates which induce differential effects on local economic growth. The outcomes of our research can be summarized in two groups. First, inflation disparities have declined over time, especially during the post-crisis period; after 2010. Hence, aggregate price stabilization and disinflation process in Turkey is coupled with convergence in inflation rates across regions. These results are confirmed using several methodologies (panel unit root tests and Kernel Density Estimates). Second, in addition to the findings in the literature, we found that regions change their relative inflation rate positions quite often. This indicates that regional inflation behaivor is random and non-structural as the relatively high and low inflationary places tend to change their quintiles frequently in time. Similarly, a geographical randomness of inflation is also verified using Moran I's test

Regional employment volatility in Turkey: Causes and consequences

Regional employment volatility is an undesirable phenomenon which describes a strongly fluctuating pattern of employment, thus, "instability" of a local economy. In the literature on this field, much of the attention has been paid to two main issues. First, a group studies has investigated the evolution of national economic volatility and searched for a tendency towards the moderation or amplification of economic cycles. Second, strand of scholars has analyzed the socio-economic and geographical determinants behind the cross-regional variation of volatility. However, far little attention has been devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of this phenomenon in developing countries So, aim of the present study is actually two fold. First, we analyze the cross-regional determinants of employment volatility in Turkey and decompose relative importance of the sources of employment growth shocks. Second, we examine the relationship between regional instability and economic convergence. In terms of methodology, we use a range of panel data, time series models and nonparametric tools such Random Effects Model; PANEL VAR model and Conditional Kernel Density Estimations. We adopt employment data and many other explanatory variables for NUTS-II level regions and over a period 2004-2013. Our analyses indicate three main results: First, there are huge differences across regions in employment volatility. Second, volatility of regions is mostly related to demographic and market size characteristics of the regions. So, regions which have high rate of labor market participation (with active labor force) and moderated growth rates; the ones which constitute greater market area tend to experience relatively more smoothed employment pattern and, thus, enjoy a stable economy. Moreover, we have shown that regional economic shocks are mostly driven by region specific disturbances rather than purely nationwide or sectoral shocks. Third, regional instability is found as an important barrier against the fulfillment of economic convergence

REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES AND INCOME CONVERGENCE IN US

Since early 90s, the issue of income convergence across regions has been widely discussed in a number of papers, both looking at long-term tendencies and trying to establish the role played by several socio-economic determinants. Much less attention has instead been devoted to the analysis of short-run convergence dynamics and the relationship with national business cycle. In the few papers that tackle this issue it is generally found that income disparities follow a pro-cyclical pattern, increasing during times of national expansions and decreasing in recessions. However, two important aspects have not yet been adequately studied in this specific area of research. First, is the relationship between national business cycle and regional income disparities linear or, rather, nonlinear. Second, what are the mechanisms and economic reasons behind the cyclical evolution of regional income disparities? And, more specifically, is the cyclical evolution a consequence of difference in the timing with which the business cycle is felt in regional economies or, alternatively, is it mainly motivated by the presence of size differences across local cyclical swings. In the present paper, we investigate the above issues using a combination of established and newly developed nonparametric tools applied to data on the states of US between 1969 and 2008

Dynamics of business cycle synchronization within Turkey

The aim of the present article is to investigate the economic determinants of the synchronization across regional business cycles in Turkey between 1975-2010. The vast majority of studies in this field have concentrated on well known determinants, such as interregional trade, financial integration and industrial specialization, while largely ignoring spatial and geographical factors including differences across regions in agglomeration, localization economies, market size and urbanization In this article, we incorporate these variables into our analysis and evaluate their roles in the comovement of regional business cycles. Our findings indicate two major results: First, low degree of synchronization during 1975-2000 has switched to relatively more correlated and synchronously moving regional cycles during 2004-2010. Second, having tested the variety of determinants, we find that the pairs of regions that have more similar industrial structure and market size, and arbitrary degree of agglomeration and urbanization tend to synchronize more. Significance of these variables is robustly evident regardless of the time period analyzed and of the type of methodology employed

Exchange rate movements and its local effects: Turkey case

Aim of the current study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on regional growth and inequalities across 26 NUTS-2 level regions in Turkey over a period 2004-2011. In terms of methodology, spatial-panel methods such as fixed and random effect estimators alligned with spatial autoregressive and error models were adopted. As an outcome, it has been shown that depreciation of Turkish lira creates an increasing effect on aggregate growth while its impact on regions are quite mixed. The industrialized Western regions are worsely affected. In these regions, depreciations create an increase in the cost items of companies, discouraging the production and output growth. Controversially, relatively less developed regions in Eastern parts are positively affected from depreciations, probably due to their improved export performances, following a depreciation, driven by a decrease in exported-good prices and increased competitiveness in foreign markets. This leads consequently to an improvement of convergence process

Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles

The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.Regional business cycles, lead/lag structure, synchronization

Harmonik Tekil Yük Etkisindeki Boşluk İçeren Yarım Uzayın Titreşimleri

Konferans Bildirisi -- Teorik ve Uygulamalı Mekanik Türk Milli Komitesi, 2008Conference Paper -- Theoretical and Applied Mechanical Turkish National Committee, 2008Bu çalışmada, harmonik tekil kuvvet zorlaması için homogen, izotrop ve lineer elastik, silindirik boşluklu yarım uzayın davranışı incelenmiştir. Silindirik boşluğun ekseni boyunca geometri, malzeme özellikleri ve zorlamanın değişmemesi nedeni ile düzlem şekildeğiştirme hali göz önüne alınmıştır. Helmholtz yerdeğiştirme potansiyellerinin kullanılması ile yönetici denklem takımı kutupsal koordinatlarda iki adet ayrık dalga denklemine indirgenmiştir. İndirgenmiş dalga denklemleri Fourier-Bessel serileri ile analitik olarak çözülmüştür. Çözüm sonunda ortaya çıkan bilinmeyen sabitler delik yüzeyi ve serbest yüzey üzerinde yazılan sınır koşulları yardımıyla hesaplanmıştır. Oyuk yüzeyinde sınır koşullarının tam olarak sağlatılmasıyla bilinmeyen sabitlerin yarısı diğer yarısı cinsinden elde edilmiştir. Geri kalan bilinmeyenler, serbest yüzey üzerindeki gerilme bileşenlerinin sıfır olması koşulunun “En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi” kullanılarak yaklaşık olarak sağlatılması ile elde edilmiştir. Çözüm sonunda ω zorlama frekansı ve N terim sayısının çeşitli değerlerine göre yerdeğiştirme ve gerilme bileşenlerinin değişimleri grafikler yardımı ile verilmiştir.In this study, response of a homogeneous, isotropic and linear elastic semi-infinite medium, which includes a cylindrical cavity, is investigated when subjected to a harmonic point load. Because of the geometry, material properties of the medium and the forcing function have never changed through the axis of cylindrical cavity; the plane strain case is used. Coupled equation of motions is reduced into two wave equations by use of Helmholtz potentials in polar coordinates. Fourier-Bessel series are used to solve these reduced wave equations. Unknown coefficients are calculated by applying boundary conditions on the cavity and free surface. Boundary conditions on the cavity surface are satisfied exactly. Using these conditions, half of the unknown coefficients are calculated in terms of the others. The stress components on the free surface must be zero. Using the Least Square Technique, these conditions have been satisfied approximately. Graphical variation of displacement and stress components on cavity and free surface are evaluated with respect to ω circular frequency and N number of term

Düzlem Dışı Harmonik Yük Etkisinde İkili Silindirik Oyuk İçeren Yarım-Uzayın Davranışı

Konferans Bildirisi -- Teorik ve Uygulamalı Mekanik Türk Milli Komitesi, 2013Conference Paper -- Theoretical and Applied Mechanical Turkish National Committee, 2013Bu çalışmada, düzlem dışı harmonik yük etkisinde ikili silindirik oyuk içeren türdeş, eş yönlü ve doğrusal esnek yarım-uzayın davranışı incelenmiştir. Oyuklar farklı yarıçaplarda olup, aralarındaki mesafe değişkendir. Her iki oyuk merkezinin de serbest yüzeye olan uzaklığı eşittir. Birinci oyuk iç yüzeyi düzlem dışı harmonik yük etkisinde iken ikinci oyuğun iç yüzeyi serbesttir. Dalga fonksiyonu açılım tekniği kullanılarak yer değiştirme alanları Fourier-Bessel serileri ile ifade edilmiştir. Kutupsal koordinat takımlarının kullanılması ile oyuk yüzeyindeki sınır koşulları doğrudan sağlatılmıştır. Serbest yüzeydeki sınır koşulu da yansıma tekniği kullanılarak sağlatılmıştır. Sayısal sonuç kısmında ikinci oyuk yarıçapının ve oyuklar arasındaki mesafenin, birinci oyuk yüzeyindeki dairesel gerilmeye olan etkileri gösterilmiştir. Anahtar kelimeler: Yarım uzay, ikili oyuk, Fourier-Bessel serisi, yansıma tekniğiIn this study, response of a homogeneous, isotropic and linear elastic half-space, which includes twin circular cavities, is investigated when subjected to out-of-plane harmonic force. Cavities have different radius and the distance between centers of the cavities varies. Cavity centers are at the same depth. First cavities inner surfaces is subjected to out-of-plane harmonic force whereas second cavities inner surface is stress-free. By using wave function expansion method, displacement fields are expressed in terms of Fourier-Bessel series. Boundary conditions at cavity surfaces are satisfied directly when polar coordinates are used. Boundary condition at flat surface is satisfied by imaging technique. In numerical results, the effect of second cavities radius and the distance between cavity centers on circumferential stress at first cavities surface is demonstrated. Key words: Half-space, twin cavities, Fourier-Bessel series, imaging techniqu