The Costs and Benefits of Informality

We explore the costs and benefits of informality associated with the informal sector lying outside the tax regime in a two-sector New Keynesian model. The informal sector is more labour intensive, has a lower labour productivity, is untaxed and has a classical labour market. The formal sector bears all the taxation costs, produces all the government services and capital goods, and wages are determined by a real wage norm. We identify two welfare costs of informalization: (1) long-term costs restricting taxes to the formal sector and (2) short-term fluctuation costs of tax changes to finance fluctuations in government spending. The benefit of informality derives from its wage flexibility. We investigate whether taxing the informal sector and thereby reducing its size sees a net welfare improvement.Informal economy, labour market, tax policy, interest rate rules

The Immigration Surplus Revisited in a General Equilibrium Model with Endogenous Growth

We revisit the work of Borjas (1995) which has provided an influential positive theory of immigration policy. An important feature of his framework is the focus on the skill-composition of immigrants and we retain this feature in our paper. Our contribution to this literature is to extend his analysis in a number of directions. First, we study the immigration surplus in the context of a general equilibrium model in which capital is endogenous and the welfare of the indigenous population is set out explicitly. Second, we introduce several sectors into the model so that changing the skill composition leads to changes in sector shares. Third, related to the second development, we introduce and R&D sector and develop a model with long-term endogenous growth. The result is that growth effects on the Immigration Surplus come to dominate the purely static effects in the original analysis of Borjas, but they are not sufficient to eliminate the emergence of losers among the section of natives competing with immigrants in the labour market.immigration surplus, economic growth, income distribution

Labour Market and Investment Effects of Remittances

This paper examines the relationship between remittances from interna- tional migration and imperfections in labour and capital markets. We use a search-matching model of the labour market to show that remittances can have two opposing effects on the labour market of the source country. First, they raise the utility of the unemployed members back home and, if a worker's bargaining power is low, this causes the unemployment rate to rise. Second, remittances available for investment will relax credit constraints encountered by firms. If the `investment effect' outweighs the `search income' effect, then remittances will reduce the unemployment rate. Our empirical analysis sug- gests that remittances have a small negative effect on unemployment, but a positive and significant effect on investment.migration, remittances, capital constraints.

Migration, skill composition and growth

The UK, with its relatively liberal immigration policies following recent enlargements, has been one of the main recipients of migrants from new EU member states. This paper poses the questions: what is the effect of immigration on a receiving economy such as the UK? Is the effect beneficial or adverse for growth? How differently would skilled (or unskilled) migration affect both receiving and sending economies? What factors would contribute to immigration/emigration benefits/costs and economic growth driven by migration? Who are the winners and losers in both the sending and host regions? We utilize an endogenous growth two-bloc model with labour mobility of different skill compositions to address these questions. We show that migration, in general, is beneficial to the receiving country and increases the world growth rate. With remittances, the sending country in aggregate can also benefit. The only exception is in the case of unskilled migration, which can actually have a detrimental impact on the world growth rate. Winners are migrants, and the skill group in the region that sees its relative size decrease.

Migration, Skill Composition and Growth

The UK, with its relatively liberal immigration policies following recent enlarge- ments, has been one of the main recipients of migrants from new EU member states. This paper poses the questions: what is the effect of immigration on a receiving econ- omy such as the UK? Is the effect beneficial or adverse for growth? Does emigration have brain drain effects on sending economies? How differently would skilled (or un- skilled) migration affect both receiving and sending economies? What factors would contribute to immigration/emigration benefits/costs and economic growth driven by migration? Who are the winners and losers in both the sending and host regions? We utilize an endogenous growth two-bloc model with labour mobility of different skill compositions to address these questions. We show that migration, in general, is beneficial to the receiving country and increases the world growth rate. With remit- tances, the sending country in aggregate can also benefit. The only exception is in the case of unskilled migration, which can actually have a detrimental impact on the world growth rate. This possibility however seems to be unlikely by our examination of migration trends. Winners are migrants, and the skill group in the region that sees its relative size decrease.Migration, Labour mobility, Skill composition, Economic growth

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

How does informality in emerging economies affect the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy? To answer this question we construct a two-sector, formal-informal new Keynesian closed-economy. The informal sector is more labour intensive, is untaxed, has a classical labour market, faces high credit constraints in financing investment and is less visible in terms of observed output. We compare outcomes under welfare- optimal monetary policy, discretion and welfare-optimized interest-rate Taylor rules alongside a balanced-budget fiscal regime. We compare the model, first with no frictions in these two markets, then with frictions in only the formal labour market and finally with frictions on both credit markets and the formal labour market. Our main conclusions are first, labour and financial market frictions, the latter assumed to be stronger in the informal sector, cause the time-inconsistency problem to worsen. The importance of commitment therefore increases in economies characterized by a large informal sector with the features we have highlighted. Simple implementable optimized rules that respond only to observed aggregate inflation and formal-sector output can be significantly worse in welfare terms than their optimal counterpart, but are still far better than discretion. Simple rules that respond, if possible, to the risk premium in the formal sector result in a significant welfare improvement.Informal economy ; Emerging economies ; Labour market ; Credit market ; Tax policy ; Interest rate rules

Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy

How does informality in emerging economies affect the conduct of monetary policy? To answer this question we construct a two-sector, formal-informal new Keynesian closed-economy. The informal sector is more labour intensive, is untaxed, has a classical labour market, faces high credit constraints in financing investment and is less visible in terms of observed output. We compare outcomes under welfare-optimal monetary policy, discretion and welfare-optimized interest-rate Taylor rules building the model in stages; first with no frictions in these two markets, then with frictions in only the formal labour market and finally with frictions on both credit markets and the formal labour market. Our main conclusions are first, labour and financial market frictions, the latter assumed to be stronger in the informal sector, cause the time-inconsistency problem to worsen. The importance of commitment therefore in- creases in economies characterized by a large informal sector with the features we have highlighted. Simple implementable optimized rules that respond only to observed aggregate inflation and formal-sector output can be significantly worse in welfare terms than their optimal counterpart, but are still far better than discretion. Simple rules that respond, if possible, to the risk premium in the formal sector result in a significant welfare improvement.Informal economy, emerging economies, labour market, credit market, tax policy, interest rate rules

Growth and Welfare Effects of East-West European Migration

Using a calibrated two-bloc endogenous growth model of the European economy, we assess the growth and welfare impact of East-West European migration of different skill compositions. The East has a lower total factor productivity and a lower endowment of skilled labour. Migration can induce two growth-enhancing effects: an efficiency effect from the more e±cient use of labour in the West and a sectoral reallocation effect from a fall in the Western skilled-unskilled wage rates. Despite growth gains there are both winners (migrants, the representative Western non-migrant household) and losers (the representative Eastern household remaining). Remittances can see the latter group joining the winners.migration, endogenous growth, welfare, immigration surplus, emigration

The Economic Impact of Migration: A Survey

This survey reviews both theoretical and empirical papers that examine the economic effects of labour mobility with a particular reference to intra-European migration. We address three broad sets of issues: Firstly, the effect that immigration has on the host country's labour market. Although the possible adverse effects that immigration can have on the wage and employment levels of natives are typically examined,immigration may also have a role to play in raising skill levels. This leads to the second broad issue: the effect of migration of a particular skill composition on the long-term (endogenous) growth of the host country. Finally, immigration can have a major economic impact on the source country. These effects can either be positive or negative depending on the interplay between the effects of growth, remittances and the brain drain.migration, factor mobility, economic growth, immigration surplus

Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey

This paper reviews the literature on the informal economy, focusing first on empirical findings and then on existing approaches to modelling informality within both partial and general equilibrium environments. We concentrate on labour and credit markets, since these tend to be most affected by informality. The phenomenon is particularly important in emerging and other developing economies, given their high degrees of informal labour and financial services and the implications these have for the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. We emphasize the need for dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) and ultimately dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for a full understanding of the costs, benefits and policy implications of informality. The survey shows that the literature on informality is quite patchy, and that there are several unexplored areas left for research. JEL Classification: J65, E24, E26, E32Informal economy, labour market, search-matching models