Estimating the potential migration from Turkey to the European Union: A literature survey

The likelihood of a potential migration flow from Turkey into the European Union (EU) has increasingly been the focus of debates among academics and policy makers. As having one of the fastest growing populations of Europe, Turkey and its migration potential are the nexus of fears and concerns. Against this background, this paper is a survey of the growing literature on the estimations of the volume of potential migration from Turkey to the EU within the context of possible Turkish membership. Taking into account the methodological problems, drawbacks of the data and definitional issues, this article aims at critically evaluating the existing literature. In the light of potential migration discussions, this paper emphasizes the necessity of a shift in the focus of debate from quantitative aspects, that are overemphasizing the economic aspects, to qualitative dimensions of migration potential from Turkey to the EU. --

Estimating the potential migration from Turkey to the European Union: A literature survey

The likelihood of a potential migration flow from Turkey into the European Union (EU) has increasingly been the focus of debates among academics and policy makers. As having one of the fastest growing populations of Europe, Turkey and its migration potential are the nexus of fears and concerns. Against this background, this paper is a survey of the growing literature on the estimations of the volume of potential migration from Turkey to the EU within the context of possible Turkish membership. Taking into account the methodological problems, drawbacks of the data and definitional issues, this article aims at critically evaluating the existing literature. In the light of potential migration discussions, this paper emphasizes the necessity of a shift in the focus of debate from quantitative aspects, that are overemphasizing the economic aspects, to qualitative dimensions of migration potential from Turkey to the EU

Turkey: Change from an emigration to an immigration and now to a transit migration country

In the post Second World War period Turkey was an emigration country for a long time. But things have changed since. After the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union, immigration from the neighborhood to Turkey increased substantially. A lively cross-border movement with the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also with the Middle East countries (i.e. especially Iran), has occurred. On the other hand, Western European countries have become extremely reluctant to open up their borders to Turkish migrants. As a consequence, Turkey is a country of emigration, immigration and transit, nowadays. In this paper, we concentrate on immigration and transit migration. --

Is Turkey still an emigration country?

Located at the geographical intersection between East and West, with both Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, Turkey was always a country with large movements of people. There were several waves of forced (ethnic) movement of people as a consequence of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the following nation-building process in the Turkish neighborhood. In the post-Second world war period, Turkey became a country of emigration. In 1961 a bilateral agreement on labor recruitment between Turkey and Germany had been signed. In the following years, similar bilateral agreements were reached with a couple of other European countries (Austria, Belgium, France, the Netherland and Sweden). Nowadays, things have changed. Turkey is still a country of emigration. But it has also become a country of immigration and transit. And therefore, it faces similar challenges of migration and integration that are characteristic for areas with strong cross-cultural movements of people. In this paper, we concentrate on the emigration flows. --

The Turkish economy after the global economic crisis

The Turkish economy has gone thru a fast and strong change in recent years. Three dimensions are of special significance: 1. Firstly, the Turkish economy has grown very quickly, with three severe recessions in 1994, 2000/1 and 2009. 2. Secondly, it has opened up rapidly but is still not that open as other economies with a similar level of development. 3. Thirdly, private business has increased but state enterprises or publicly owned and run firms are still important. --

The Turkish economy in a regional perspective

The end of the Cold War changed the political landscape of the Black Sea area and the Middle East completely: In the North-East, the collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by the nascence of new sovereign nation states - with all the problems of nation building and all the costs of going through a fundamental economic and social transformation from communist systems to market oriented economies. In the West, the European Union (EU) widened geographically and deepened structurally, increasing the number of full members from 12 to 15 (1995) to 25 (2004) and finally to 27 (2007). Furthermore a European Monetary Union with a common currency for 16 members was established. Finally, the South-East - disturbed by political crisis and wars - has become more important as a supplier of energy (i.e. gas and oil) not only for the area itself but even more for Europe and other world regions. --

Turkey's globalizing economy

The end of the Cold War has been a catalyst for Turkish economic relations with its neighbors. Turkey moved from the periphery to the center of a region that is transforming politically, socially and economically very fast. It is now surrounded by 13 sovereign nation states, which are more or less open to international trade and factor movements. All these new nation states have become potential partners for all kinds of economic activities. Due to their proximity, they are easily accessible markets for Turkish exports of goods or for imports of energy. Furthermore, they could provide the Turkish economy with cheap labor force - either as migrants to Turkey or as workers for Turkish plants to be established in the neighborhood. --

The Turkish economy: A winner of the Euro crisis?

While Turkey has opened up for trade, and export orientation has been seen as an important tool for development, foreign direct investments (FDI) have lagged behind. Turkey has not attracted a lot of FDI. Less than one billion US-$FDI came to Turkey per year before 2000. In the last decade, FDI to Turkey has risen sharply to a peak of about 22 billion US-$ in 2007 but with a significant decrease since (as a consequence of the worldwide international financial crisis). --

The balance of payments as a constraint on Turkey's growth, 1960 - 2004

The aim of this study is to test the existence of balance of a payments constraint on the long run economic growth of the Turkish economy. The balance of payments constrained growth (BPCG) model which was developed by Thirlwall (1979) and extended by Thirlwall and Hussain (1982) is tested over the period of 1960-2004 using OLS. Empirical findings of this paper support the BPCG model for the whole period under consideration. For the different sub-periods, there are either different essential economic relations or behaviors behind the BOP constraint

Turkey's globalizing economy

The end of the Cold War has been a catalyst for Turkish economic relations with its neighbors. Turkey moved from the periphery to the center of a region that is transforming politically, socially and economically very fast. It is now surrounded by 13 sovereign nation states, which are more or less open to international trade and factor movements. All these new nation states have become potential partners for all kinds of economic activities. Due to their proximity, they are easily accessible markets for Turkish exports of goods or for imports of energy. Furthermore, they could provide the Turkish economy with cheap labor force - either as migrants to Turkey or as workers for Turkish plants to be established in the neighborhood