A Model of Imitative Behavior in the Population of Firms and Workers

We study an imitation game of strategic complementarities between the percentage of high-skilled workers and innovative firms, namely, human capital and R&D, respectively. We show that this model has two pure Nash equilibria, one of them with high investment in R&D and skilled workers while the other one, which we interpret as poverty trap, exhibits lack of skills and underinvestment. Furthermore, we show that we can avoid the poverty trap if the number of innovative firms is larger than a threshold value allowing an increment of the number of skilled workersImitative behavior, conformism, poverty traps, strategic complementarities

Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth

Tourism is one of the most important factors in the productivity of Mexican economy with significant multiplier effects on economic activity. This paper investigates possible causal relationships among tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth by using quarterly data. Johansen cointegration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism expenditure and real exchange rate where the corresponding elasticities are positive. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. Tourism expenditure and Real Exchange Rate (RER) are weakly exogenous to real GDP. A modified version of the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourism expenditure and RER to real GDP. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a short fall and then a positive effect on growth.economic growth Johansen cointegration test Granger causality tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Dynamic Complementarities, Efficiency and Nash Equilibria for Populations of Firms and Workers

We consider an economy with two types of firms (innovative and non-innovative) and two types of workers (skilled and unskilled), where workers' decisions are driven by imitative behavior, and thus the evolution of such an economy depends on the initial distribution of the firms. We show that there exists a continuous of high level steady states and only one low level and asymptotically stable equilibrium. There exists a threshold value on the initial number of firms to be overcome it to located in the basin of attraction of one of the high level equilibrium. We show that in each high level equilibrium there coexists a share of innovative firms with a share of non-innovative firms, and a share of skilled workers (human capital) coexisting with a share of unskilled workers. But if the initial share of innovative firms is lower than the threshold value, then the economy evolves to a low level equilibrium wholly composed by non-innovative firms and unskilled workers. Finally, we characterise the equilibria as the evolutionarily stable strategies against a field.Imitative Behavior, Poverty Traps, Strategic Complementarities, Two Population Normal Form Game, Threshold Value.

Growth and inequality in the Mexican states: Regimes, thresholds, and traps

Using the inter-regional economic inequality index and the gross state product per capita for the Mexican states over the period 1940–2015, we apply regime dynamics and hierarchical cluster analysis for segmenting the sample into regimes of Mexican states with similar performance. Robust econometric models are studied showing the direction of causality between economic inequality and income per capita, and the existence of a U-shaped curve for the interdependence between economic growth vs economic inequality, and threshold levels. We additionally demonstrate the existence of inequality traps. The education literacy rate as a control variable indicates an inverted U-shaped curve

A Long-run Equilibrium Demand Function: Tourism in Mexico

Tourism demand in Mexico is around 80 percent represented by USA visitors. The goal of this paper is to explain the long-term effects of Tourism Demand in Mexico with respect to US visitors. To reach our goal the methodology of this paper follows the Johansen cointegration analysis and using annual time-series data, a single equation is estimated. With the empirical analyze, we study the tourism demand elasticities considering public investment, relative prices of tourist products, and US income per capita. Further analysis shows only one direction of a strongly positive Granger-causality going from number of tourists to the relative prices. We show that US income positively affects the Mexican tourism demand

A Long-run Equilibrium Demand Function: Tourism in Mexico

Tourism demand in Mexico is around 80 percent represented by USA visitors. The goal of this paper is to explain the long-term effects of Tourism Demand in Mexico with respect to US visitors. To reach our goal the methodology of this paper follows the Johansen cointegration analysis and using annual time-series data, a single equation is estimated. With the empirical analyze, we study the tourism demand elasticities considering public investment, relative prices of tourist products, and US income per capita. Further analysis shows only one direction of a strongly positive Granger-causality going from number of tourists to the relative prices. We show that US income positively affects the Mexican tourism demand

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Development and validation of HERWIG 7 tunes from CMS underlying-event measurements

This paper presents new sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event model of the HERWIG7 event generator. These parameters control the description of multiple-parton interactions (MPI) and colour reconnection in HERWIG7, and are obtained from a fit to minimum-bias data collected by the CMS experiment at s=0.9, 7, and 13Te. The tunes are based on the NNPDF 3.1 next-to-next-to-leading-order parton distribution function (PDF) set for the parton shower, and either a leading-order or next-to-next-to-leading-order PDF set for the simulation of MPI and the beam remnants. Predictions utilizing the tunes are produced for event shape observables in electron-positron collisions, and for minimum-bias, inclusive jet, top quark pair, and Z and W boson events in proton-proton collisions, and are compared with data. Each of the new tunes describes the data at a reasonable level, and the tunes using a leading-order PDF for the simulation of MPI provide the best description of the dat

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV