Comparing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global warming

Policies dealing with global warming require a measure of the effects of the emissions of greenhouse gases that create different magnitudes of instantaneous radiative forcing and have different lifetimes. The Global Warming Potential (GWP), a physical index of the total radiative forcing due to an emission of a unit amount of a particular greenhouse gas has been proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a such a policy tool. In general, no such physical index will serve this purpose. Adding up physical measures of radiative forcing in different periods resulting from emissions at different times and places is, in an economic and policy sense, like adding apples and oranges. Discounting of radiative forcing in successive periods, as in done in some versions of the GWP, is only an arbitrary weighting. Reduction of radiative forcing effects in different future periods of greenhouse gas emissions that occur at different times and places can be expected to impose different economic costs. These opportunity cost valuations must be used to weight the effects of a greenhouse gas emission over its lifetime. That leads to the concept of the Emissions Opportunity Cost (EOC) of a greenhouse gas emission. While this is more difficult to measure, it is the essential guide to policy

Central issues in the negotiations on limiting greenhouse warming

The three central questions in the international negotiations on greenhouse warming are: (1) How much global warming should be tolerated? (2) How much responsibility for past emissions should be assigned to present generations? (3) How should quotas for future additions to total radiative forcing be allocated among countries? In principle, if these issues could be settled, the "command and control" procedure of regulation of the annual rate of emissions by each country, which has, so far, been the focus of attention, would be unnecessary. Determination of annual rates of greenhouse gas emissions could -- and should -- be left to individual countries. Sales or leases of emissions "permits" among countries may be used to reallocate emissions rights. The international negotiations may be thought as a means of asserting international control of the characteristic atmospheric responses to greenhouse gas accumulations. However, since compliance cannot be assured, when the gains from noncompliance are thought to be quite large and when violations would, in and of themselves, impose very little in the way of penalties on the violators, monitoring and coercion will be necessary to enforce any agreements.Supported by the Center for Energy Policy Research, MIT and the Rockefeller Foundation

Local and Seasonal Effects in the U.S. of Global Climate Change

http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/workingpapers.htmlThough the facts of global climate change are beyond doubt, there has been relatively limited information about its local consequences. Global climate models and their derivatives have provided often differing and unspecific indications. This paper demonstrates an effective approach for the determination of local and seasonal effects of global climate change using data for the United States. Examples are given for specific weather station sites and for sites across the U.S. in five longitudinal strips divided into four latitudinal strips. Mean temperature and precipitation data are subjected to thirty year moving averaging and linear time trend lines are estimated, for which, in almost all instances, the estimated coefficients are highly significant. While in some locations there have been significant weather effects of climate changes, in other locations the effects have been small and may even be perverse. Linear extrapolation into the future of the results for individual sites seems reliable, based on past experience. Local weather patterns and local topographies modify the local effects of global climate change. An immediate implication of the results reported here is that there are significant local differences in the type and degree of adaptation to global climate change that should be considered.CEEP

The oil price really is a speculative bubble

The oil price really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the price increases are the result of basic economic forces: rapid growth in consumption, pushed particularly by the oil appetites of China and India, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, real supply limitations, current and prospective and the risks of supply disruption, especially in the Middle East. These "explanations" will be taken up one by one, but first a view of what has happened to oil prices over recent years

On the methods of investigation of factor proportions / [by] Richard S. Eckaus

Cover title"April 12, 1955 (Rome, 24 February 1955)""L2-61"--handwritten on coverAt head of title: Economic Development Program. Italian ProjectIncludes bibliographical reference

Further considerations of fixed-coefficient models

"March 15, 1954."At head of title: Italy. Economic Development. Economics /8"#59"--handwritten on cover. -- Series statement handwritten on coverIncludes bibliographical reference

How restricting carbon dioxide and methane emissions would affect the Indian economy

India and China contain about 40 percent of the earth's people. They are at an early stage of economic development, and their increasingly massive energy requirements will depend heavily on coal, a potent source of carbon dioxide, a powerful and long-lasting greenhouse gas. India also has important sources and uses of hydroelectric and nuclear power, petroleum, and natural gas. Agriculture still produces about 30 percent of its gross domestic product, and about 72 percent of the population lives in rural areas - with their large animal populations and substantial forest acreage. India has vast cities and an industrial sector that is large in absolute terms, although it represents only 30 percent of the economy. The model developed to analyze the economic effects of constraints on greenhouse gas emissions is a multisectoral, intertemporal linear programming model, driven by the optimization of the welfare of a representative consumer. A comprehensive model was built not to project the future at a single stroke but to begin to answer questions of a"What if?"form. The results strongly suggest that the economic effects on India of such constraints would be profound. The implications of different forms of emissions restrictions - annual, cumulative, and radiative forcing - deserve more attention. Cumulative restrictions - or better still, restrictions on radiative forcing - are closely related to public policy on greenhouse effects. Such restrictions also provide significant additional degrees of freedom for the economic adjustments required. They do this, in part, by allowing the postponement of emissions restrictions, which is not permitted by annual constraints. Of course, the question arises whether a country, having benefited from postponing a required reduction in emissions, would then be willing to face the consequences in economic losses. Might there be a genuine preference - albeit an irrational one - for taking the losses annually? Would compliance with international agreements for emissions restrictions be more likely if they required annual, rather than cumulative, reductions? Monitoring requirements would be the same in either case; if effective monitoring were carried out, it would detect departures from cumulative or radiative forcing constraints just as easily as departures from annualconstraints.Environmental Economics&Policies,Carbon Policy and Trading,Montreal Protocol,Transport and Environment,Energy and Environment

Growth and welfare losses from carbon emissions restrictions : a general equilibrium analysis for Egypt

The authors assess the economic effects in Egypt, under various conditions, of restricting carbon dioxide emissions. They use their model to assess the sensitivity of these effects to alternative specifications: changes in the level or timing of restrictions, changes in the rate of discount of future welfare, and the presence or absence of alternative technologies for generating power. They also analyze a constraint on accumulated emissions of carbon dioxide. Their time model has a time horizon of 100 years, with detailed accounting for every five years, so they can be specific about differences between short- and long-run effects and their implications. However, the results reported here cover only a 60-year period - and are intended only to compare the results of generic,"what if?"questions, not as forecasts. In that 60-year period, the model economy substantially depletes its hydrocarbon reserves, which are the only non produced resource. The authors find that welfare losses due to the imposition of annual restrictions on the rate of carbon dioxide emissions are substantial - ranging from 4.5 percent for a 20 percent reduction in annual carbon dioxide emissions to 22 percent for a 40 percent reduction. The effects of the annual emissions restrictions are relatively nonlinear. The timing of the restrictions is significant. Postponing them provides a longer period for adjustment and makes it possible to continue delivering consumption goodsin a relatively unconstrained manner. The form of emissions restrictions is also important. Welfare losses are much higher when constraints are imposed on annual emissions rates rather than on total additions to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Conventional backstop technologies for maintaining output and consumption - cogeneration, nuclear power, and gas-powered transport - are more significant than unconventional"renewable"technologies, which cannot compete for cost.Environmental Economics&Policies,Energy and Environment,Carbon Policy and Trading,Montreal Protocol,Climate Change

Economic criteria for education and training

DraftCaption titleAt head of title: Draft"1329"--handwritten on p. [1]. -- Series statement handwritten on p. [1]Includes bibliographical reference