The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10–14%, while the drought decreases them by 6–12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (−2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (−34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes

Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems

The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, and amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions and concepts, identifies MSD science questions in the context of the current state of knowledge, and describes ongoing activities to expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions in data and computing, and grow and diversify the MSD workforce. Central to our vision is the ambition of advancing the next generation of complex adaptive human-Earth systems science to better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, and improve sustainability. This will require convergent research and the integration of ideas and methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding the tradeoffs, synergies, and complexities that exist in coupled human-Earth systems is particularly important in the context of energy transitions and increased future shocks

Predicting spatial smoothing for solar PV power using the wavelet variability model

With increasing penetrations of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in the electricity grid, the variability of the irradiance, and therefore power, is important to understand because variable resources can challenge grid operations. The smoothing of solar irradiance over the extent of PV power plants is examined using two methods: averaging measurements from many irradiance sensors, and using a model developed by Lave, Kleissl, and Stein (2013) called the Wavelet Variability Model. This thesis utilizes data from a network of 45 solar irradiance sensors which was deployed north of Flagstaff, Arizona. The results show the similarities and differences between two irradiance smoothing methods. These two models both show that the smoothing effect is significant for large PV power plants, which means the power plant output has less variability and is easier to integrate into the electricity grid than might have been expected using a single point sensor measurement to predict variability

Tilt current meter measurements near Straits of Mackinac

We assess the unique water current velocities around the Straits of Mackinac between Lakes Michigan and Huron using a hydrodynamic model, observations from a buoy, and new measurements taken on the lakebed with tilt current meters

Dedicated cold-climate field laboratory for photovoltaic system and component studies: the Michigan Regional Test Center as a case study

Snow and ice accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) panels is a recognized-but poorly quantified-contributor to PV performance, not only in geographic areas that see persistent snow in winter but also at lower latitudes, where frozen precipitation and \u27snowmageddon\u27 events can wreak havoc with the solar infrastructure. In addition, research on the impact of snow and cold on PV systems has not kept pace with the proliferation of new technologies, the rapid deployment of PV in northern latitudes, and experiences with long-term field performance. This paper describes the value of a dedicated outdoor research facility for longitudinal performance and reliability studies of emerging technologies in cold climates

A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid

Thermoelectric power plants often depend on multipurpose reservoirs to supply cooling water. Although reservoirs buffer natural hydrologic variability, severe droughts can deplete storage below critical thresholds, or to levels at which the effluent water temperature exceeds the environmental compliance requirement for cooling. This study explores the effects of projected climate change and drought on water storage at 30 major reservoirs in Texas. These reservoirs collectively provide cooling water for about two thirds of thermoelectric power capacity in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Multi-ensemble runoff projections generated from eleven downscaled hydroclimate simulations are mapped to key watersheds to create spatially correlated multi-reservoir inflow sequences. These data are used to drive reservoir storage simulations, which are linked to a metric of “capacity-at-risk” using critical reservoir thresholds. We find that projected impacts of climate change are mixed, with results indicating an increase in the occurrence of thermal disruption under only half of climate models. A critical threshold of 30% storage volume—applied to all reservoirs—results in disruption to about one fifth of ERCOT thermal generation during the most severe projected droughts. The study highlights an important role for detailed reservoir behavior simulations for capturing the effects of drought and climate change on thermoelectric plant performance