ISER Working Paper 2009.1

In this report we calculate the economic importance of nature-based tourism in Southeast Alaska as measured by business revenue. Our estimates are based on field research conducted during 2005, 2006 and 2007. We define nature-based tourism as those tourism activities for which the natural environment is a significant input.1 Our key findings include the following: • Nature-based tourism generates about $277 million per year of direct business revenues in Sitka, Juneau, Chichagof Island, Prince of Wales Island, Petersburg and Wrangell. This number is most likely an underestimate of total revenues because not all naturebased tourism businesses and business sectors could be included in our estimates. Our numbers do not include tips – which in some businesses might add 25taxes and fess paid directly to local governments. In addition, the especially rainy weather of 2006 probably caused abnormally low sales for some businesses. • Average revenue per visitor varies considerably among communities and activities; ranging from about$140 per visitor in Juneau to more than $2,600 per visitor on Prince of Wales Island. These differences reflect the range of activities offered -- from half-day excursions to multiple, overnight all-inclusive lodge stays. • Nature-based tourism expenditures create a significant economic ripple effect that keeps money circulating through the economy. This money supports jobs in marketing, support services, food and beverages, accommodations, fuel sales, government, and other sectors. • Communities are clearly striving to differentiate themselves and capitalize on local amenities such as the Stikine River, Anan Creek, the LeConte Glacier, Tracy Arm, Glacier Bay, Pack Creek and exceptional fishing and scenic opportunities. • A large and growing portion of Southeast Alaska’s visitors are cruise ship passengers. Both cruise passengers and independent travelers are similarly interested in nature-based tourism services. The majority of cruise ship shore excursions offer nature-based activities, from hikes and glacier viewing to flightseeing and forest canopy zip lines. • Communities hosting large numbers of cruise passengers are actively developing new and creative tourism products such as forest canopy zip lines and mountain biking while those with fewer visitors tend to be focused on sport fishing. This appears to be the case even if local amenities exist to support a broader range of business and visitor activities. Thus, there appear to be unrealized opportunities in some communities, but these may also reflect an inadequate visitor base upon which to risk additional investment. • There is a complex and competitive system for pre-booking cruise ship shore excursions. Businesses with exclusive cruise line contracts make price and tour information available only to cruise passengers and often agree to sell tours only through the cruise line.• The tourism businesses in cruise ports of call that appear to be most successful either have a cruise ship shore excursion contract or are catering to overnight (non-cruise) guests with high-quality and high-value services. Examples of these types of businesses include sport fishing lodges and multi-day yacht cruises. • It is difficult to compete with established businesses holding existing cruise line contracts. Despite this hurdle, a number of companies are offering creative new products including zip lines through the forest canopy, glass-bottomed boats, and an amphibious “duck” tour. • Some operators attribute the increased interest in adventure activities to a change in cruise ship clientele. In recent years, cruise companies have been catering to a younger crowd, targeting families. In any event, increasing numbers of passengers are interested in more active pursuits. • Competition for cruise passengers exists both within and between communities, as people are booking their shore excursions in advance and look at all the options. Sitka companies mentioned they were carefully tracking zip line activity in Juneau and Ketchikan, dogsled tours on the Mendenhall Glacier, and other activities to see which market niche they could capture. • There is some evidence that visitors are willing to pay premium prices for higher quality experiences in more pristine environments. However, it is not clear what specific attributes (seclusion, fishing experience, food, services, perceived exclusivity, and environmental amenities) are the key components of this higher market value. • It is possible to design a community-based tourism program that provides employment to local residents as is occurring in Hoonah. However, Elfin Cove appears to bring in more in gross revenues than Hoonah with about one-eighth as many visitors because Hoonah’s operation relies on volume while Elfin Cove businesses rely on higher-priced fishing lodge experiences. Day trips seem to be relatively higher cost, lower profit operations. • Independent travelers appear to try to avoid crowds and many are repeat visitors. Most tend to stay longer and have more open itineraries than those on cruise ships or organized tours. These characteristics make independent travelers more difficult to contact. • Independent travelers also appear to seek communities with fewer visitors and those that they perceive to be more “authentic,” such as Petersburg, Wrangell, and communities on Chichagof Islands. A lack of transportation capacity, whether on scheduled jets or on ferries, may be limiting the opportunities for these smaller communities. Less marketing may also be a factor limiting visits by independent travelers. • The primary marketing mechanisms for smaller, non-cruise related businesses are the internet and word of mouth. In addition, many customers return to the same fishing lodge, yacht tour, or charter business year after year. • Wildlife viewing is highly attractive to visitors due to spectacular scenery and abundant wildlife including whales and other marine mammals. Companies in several communities expressed a desire to move toward more wildlife viewing and sightseeing and away from sport fishing. These operators preferred wildlife viewing as it was less stressful due to less pressure to catch fish. Some operators were making this shift, while others thought they would not be able to match the revenue generated by sport fishing. • Weather has a significant impact on business for companies whose tours are not prebooked on cruise ships. Operators noted a marked difference between the sunny, dry summer of 2004 and the remarkably wet summer of 2006. Visitors walking off a ship in the rain were much less likely to go on marine tours or hikes in soggy conditions, and seasonal revenues were down. Businesses with cruise contracts did not experience this setback as passengers are not reimbursed for pre-sold tours when weather conditions are poor. The one exception was flightseeing, where companies had to cancel tours due to unsafe weather conditions. • Promoting wildlife watching is an important marketing strategy for Southeast Alaska communities. Visitors bureaus currently produce pamphlets with charismatic large animals, such as whales and bears. Bureau staff cited studies showing the desire to see wildlife was attracting a large portion of out-of-state visitors. • A significant policy question emerging from this research is how the public lands might be managed to increase the economic returns from tourism to residents of Southeast Alaska communities, especially the smaller communities that can only accommodate smaller numbers of visitors at one time. Bear viewing is one example of a high-value activity that depends on controlled access to specific infrastructure.Alaska Conservation Foundation. University of Alaska Foundation. The Wilderness Society.Executive Summary / Introduction / Methods / Ketchikan / Juneau / Sitka / Norther Southeast Alaska Yachts / Chichagof Island / Prince of Wales Island / Petersburg / Wrangell / Conclusion

Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June-September) of the year remains negative and vice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal rainfall and vice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50 of the total area of India shows statistically significant association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale

Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index

In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20°N-40°N and 70°E-85°E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June-September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, for all the time scales. From the analysis it has been seen that RPI in the month of May is significantly associated with ISMR over various regions on all the scales. The relationship is statistically significant at 1 level. The study reveals that RPI in the month of May and January will be a new precursor for the long range forecasting of ISMR on the smaller spatial scale. On the decadal and climatological scale, winter and spring time RPI show a significant inverse relationship with the rainfall over the regions Peninsular India (PI) and North West India (NWI), while the association is direct with Central North East India (CNEI) and North East India (NEI). The relationship is significant at 0.1 and 1 level respectively

The simultaneous effect of NAO and SO on the monsoon activity over India

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) are two large-scale atmospheric oscillations in northern and southern hemisphere respectively. These two oscillations are known to affect Indian summer monsoon (June-September) rainfall (ISMR). It is logical to expect the combined effect of these two oscillations on monsoon rainfall over Indian subcontinent. In the present paper this combined effect of NAO and SO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall is studied. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the month of April is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Southern oscillation (SO) indices from April through December show direct association with ISMR. The present study deals with the simultaneous effect of NAO and SO on monsoon rainfall over India. The effective strength index is newly defined to quantify the simultaneous effect of NAO and SO and its relationship with ISMR is investigated. For this purpose 40 years data (1951-90) has been used. The study emphasizes an important role of interaction between NAO and SO in the month of April. It also emphasizes that monsoon activity over India depends upon the strength of both the oscillations namely NAO and SO. The analysis suggests that the effective strength index can be used as a pre-cursor to understand the extreme monsoon events. The analysis also suggests an inverse association of ISMR with the effective strength index from April through December with statistically significant relationship in the months of April, October, November and December

Interannual and long-term variability of the summer monsoon and its possible link with northern hemispheric surface air temperature

Some statistical properties of the summer monsoon seasonal rainfall for India during the last 100 years (1881-1980) are presented. The most recent decade of 1971-1980 shows the lowest value of standard-decadal average monsoon rainfall (86.40 cm) and is also characterised by the second highest value of coefficient of variation in monsoon rainfall (12.4 ). The combined last two standard-decadal period of 1961-1980 was the period of the largest coefficient of variation and the lowest average monsoon rainfall for India. The possible influence of global climatic variability on the performance of the monsoon is also examined. Analyses of correlation coefficient show that a statistically significant positive relationship with a time-lag of about six months exists between monsoon rainfall and northern hemispheric surface air temperature. A cooler northern hemisphere during January/February leads to a poor monsoon. All the major drought years during the last 3 decades had much cooler January/February periods over the northern hemisphere-1972 having the coldest January/February with a temperature departure of -0.94°C and the most disastrous monsoon failure

Pre-monsoon Zonal Wind Index over Tibetan Plateau and sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

In this paper, by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique monthly zonal wind indices over Tibetan Plateau (25°N-45°N, 75-105°E) (TP) at 200 hPa have been constructed for the period 1948-2006. These indices are referred as Tibetan Zonal Wind Index (TZWI). The relationship between the TZWI and Indian summer monsoon rainfall on monthly basis has been studied by the correlation analysis. From the analysis, it is observed that pre-monsoon months (April and May) of TZWI show the significant inverse relationship with June and July rainfall over India respectively. The study may be useful for forecasting rainfall activity in June and July months, which are crucial months from the agricultural point of view

Use of Interactions between NAO and MJO for the Prediction of Dry and Wet Spell in Monsoon Season

Abstract The Indian summer monsoon exhibits prominent 30-40 day fluctuations with "active" periods of heavy rain interrupted by dry periods i.e. "Breaks". The circulation anomalies associated with active/break monsoon cover the entire Indian Ocean remote tropics and North Pacific Ocean. A prolonged dry/wet period will result in severe drought/flooding, which have profound influences on the south Asia water cycle, agriculture and societal activity of more than one billion people. The atmospheric general circulation models have great difficulty in simulating the Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). Therefore, it is necessary to study the empirical relationship between various atmospheric processes, which are responsible for the ISO. In this paper, the analysis of North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and Madden Julian Oscillation Index (MJOI) on daily scale is carried out in relation to daily Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June-September). The analysis is carried out for the period 1979-2001. Since the potential predictability limit for monsoon break is about 20 days, the 20 days running lag/lead correlation analysis between the NAOI and MJOI is found out for each year. It is observed that 20-day lag relationship between NAO and MJO is inverse and significant (0.1 level) and this relationship remains negative throughout the break monsoon period and in active phase it reverses. This twenty days lag relationship between NAO and MJO is potential predictor for break/ active monsoon conditions over the Indian region. The analysis is verified for major drought year 2002

Global temperature and monsoon activity

In this paper an attempt has been made to search a new parameter for the prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. For this purpose the relationship of the global surface-air temperature of four standard seasons viz., Winter (December-January-February), Spring (March-April-May), Summer (June-July-August), Autumn (September-October-November) with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been carried out. The same analysis is also carried out with surface-air temperature anomalies within the tropical belt (30°S to 30°N) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. For the present study data for 30 years period from 1958 to 1988 have been used. The analysis reveals that there is a strong inverse relationship between the monsoon activity and the tropical belt temperature

Polymethyl Methacrylate as a Binder for Pyrotechnic Compositions

Studies on polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) as a binder for igniter and delay compositions are reported. Igniter compositions based on magnesium and boron as fuels and potassium nitrate as oxidiser, delay compositions comprising ferrosilicon and red lead, have been investigated. These compositions were subjected to various tests, such as linear burning rate, sensitivity, calorimetric value, compatibility, pelleting properties, spark sensitivity, ignition temperatures and performance characteristics. The results indicate that the igniter compositions Mg:KNO/sub 3/:PMMA (42:50:8) and B:KNO/sub 3/:PMMA (30:70:10) as well as the delay composition comprising FeSi:Pb/sub 3/O/sub 4:PMMA (25:75:1) have improved properties and therefore could find practical applications

Effect of Fuel Content and Particle Size Distribution of Oxidiser on Ignition of Metal-Based Pyrotechnic Compositions

Influence of boron content in boron-based pyrotechnic composition and particle size distribution of oxidiser, i.e., KNO3 in boron-based pyrotechnic composition is examined by subjecting these to various tests. Study on boron-based pyrotechnic compositions reveals that compositions with 20, 25 and 30 parts by weight of boron are promising igniter compositions wrt their calorimetric values, pressure maximum, ignition delay, etc. However, from sensitivity point of view, the composition with 30 parts of boron is more safe to handle, manufacture and use. From the study of particle size distribution of KNO3 in Mg- based pyrotechnic compositions, it is observed that the composition with wider particle size distribution of oxidiser gives better packing density for their binary miJQ with metal fuel, which in turn gives lower ignition delay and ignition temperature