Better than average: An investigation of overconfidence in South Africa

Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation examines overconfidence in an investing environment to determine if there is evidence of the phenomenon amongst a sample of academics at participating universities. A survey was sent out to over 6 000 staff members at four South African universities assessing respondents’ ability to estimate their return earned in unit trusts in which they were invested, as well as assessing whether they would adjust their estimate when presented with an anchor (the relevant JSE All Share Index return). 466 completed responses were obtained, of which 81 respondents indicated that they were invested directly in a South African equity unit trust to allow for statistical testing. The data obtained were analysed for evidence of overconfidence and anchoring by comparing respondents’ estimates of fund returns against historical returns and then checking whether they adjusted their estimate after being presented with an anchor. It was found that investors were under-confident rather than overconfident with women giving lower, and thus more under-confident estimates than their male counterparts. Furthermore, it was found that older respondents were better able to estimate their past returns than younger respondents. The presence of an anchor appeared to have no effect on respondents’ estimates

A Coding Typology to study dyadic interactions in International Negotiations : Extending the IPA model

Awarded the ‘Prof. Martin Rahe Best Paper Award.’Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The role of patients' meta-preferences in the design and evaluation of decision support systems.

The arrival of new analysis-based decision technologies will necessitate a profound rethinking both of the nature of the patient-doctor relationship and of the way aids and support systems designed to improve decision-making within that relationship are designed and evaluated. One-dimensional typologies of the traditional 'paternalist/shared/informed' sort do not provide the complexity called for by the heterogeneity of patient's 'meta-preferences' regarding their relationship with a doctor on the one hand and regarding the analytical level of judgement and decision-making on the other. A multidimensional matrix embodying this distinction is proposed as a framework of the minimal complexity required for the design and evaluation of the full range of decision aids and decision modes. Essentially aids should be conceived of and evaluated cell-specifically and the search for universally satisfactory decision support systems abandoned. 'shared' and'informed' are best interpreted as attributes which may or not be in line with a patient's meta-preferences. Future research should focus on the higher level goal of better decision-making, a goal that will need to respect and reflect these meta-preferences

What makes a good clinical student and teacher? An exploratory study

<b>Background</b> What makes a good clinical student is an area that has received little coverage in the literature and much of the available literature is based on essays and surveys. It is particularly relevant as recent curricular innovations have resulted in greater student autonomy. We also wished to look in depth at what makes a good clinical teacher. <p></p> <b>Methods</b> A qualitative approach using individual interviews with educational supervisors and focus groups with senior clinical students was used. Data was analysed using a “framework” technique. <p></p> <b>Results</b> Good clinical students were viewed as enthusiastic and motivated. They were considered to be proactive and were noted to be visible in the wards. They are confident, knowledgeable, able to prioritise information, flexible and competent in basic clinical skills by the time of graduation. They are fluent in medical terminology while retaining the ability to communicate effectively and are genuine when interacting with patients. They do not let exam pressure interfere with their performance during their attachments. <p></p> Good clinical teachers are effective role models. The importance of teachers’ non-cognitive characteristics such as inter-personal skills and relationship building was particularly emphasised. To be effective, teachers need to take into account individual differences among students, and the communicative nature of the learning process through which students learn and develop. Good teachers were noted to promote student participation in ward communities of practice. Other members of clinical communities of practice can be effective teachers, mentors and role models. <p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Good clinical students are proactive in their learning; an important quality where students are expected to be active in managing their own learning. Good clinical students share similar characteristics with good clinical teachers. A teacher’s enthusiasm and non-cognitive abilities are as important as their cognitive abilities. Student learning in clinical settings is a collective responsibility. Our findings could be used in tutor training and for formative assessment of both clinical students and teachers. This may promote early recognition and intervention when problems arise

Development and preliminary evaluation of a clinical guidance programme for the decision about prophylactic oophorectomy in women undergoing a hysterectomy

Objectives: To develop a decision analysis based and computerised clinical guidance programme (CGP) that provides patient specific guidance on the decision whether or not to undergo a prophylactic oophorectomy to reduce the risk of subsequent ovarian cancer and to undertake a preliminary pilot and evaluation. Subjects: Women who had already agreed to have a hysterectomy who otherwise had no ovarian pathology. Setting: Oophorectomy decision consultation at the outpatient or pre-admission clinic. Methods: A CGP was developed with advice from gynaecologists and patient groups, incorporating a set of Markov models within a decision analytical framework to evaluate the benefits of undergoing a prophylactic oophorectomy or not on the basis of quality adjusted life expectancy, life expectancy, and for varying durations of hormone replacement therapy. Sensitivity analysis and preliminary testing of the CGP were undertaken to compare its overall performance with established guidelines and practice. A small convenience sample of women invited to use the CGP were interviewed, the interviews were taped and transcribed, and a thematic analysis was undertaken. Results: The run time of the programme was 20 minutes, depending on the use of opt outs to default values. The CGP functioned well in preliminary testing. Women were able to use the programme and expressed overall satisfaction with it. Some had reservations about the computerised format and some were surprised at the specificity of the guidance given. Conclusions: A CGP can be developed for a complex healthcare decision. It can give evidence-based health guidance which can be adjusted to account for individual risk factors and reflects a patient’s own values and preferences concerning health outcomes. Future decision aids and support systems need to be developed and evaluated in a way which takes account of the variation in patients’ preferences for inclusion in the decision making process

Interpreting culture in a Scottish congregation: an ethnographic and theological approach

In recent Practical Theology there has been an increasing interest in the application of hermeneutical theories. While the object domain of hermeneutics is primarily associated with literature and language, it is also possible to speak of the interpretation of situations. One type of social situation which practical theologians have treated as an interpretative context is that of congregations, and the impetus for such studies lies in the value of theology constructed around the experience of these communities.The focus of this thesis is congregational culture in the setting of a Scottish local church, and the research question concerns the ways in which congregants experience their culture. Since the interpretation of culture in communities is the specialisation of Social Anthropology, this research adopts a qualitative empirical approach consisting of participant observation and ethnographic interviews.In contrast to other examples of congregational studies, the significance of this research lies in taking cues from the particularity of the field setting itself rather than assuming preformulated structures. Central to congregational culture at Riverstane Church are the symbolic boundaries which delimit the relationship between insiders and outsiders, as well as the relationships between insiders themselves. These boundaries are associated with the church building, the social segmentation within the congregation, and the status economy of its micro -politics. Further, the symbolic boundaries are accompanied by mutually reinforcing cycles in the social processes of the congregation. These are: difference towards other social entities; deference to authority, tradition, and status; and dissonance resulting from the tension between the congregation's collective sense of self and the reality of congregational decline.Theologically, these congregational boundaries have a bearing upon congregational mission, and the biblical concept of philoxenia, or hospitality to strangers, is seen as a key to possible transformation. Finally, attention to the horizon of personal boundaries arising from the narcissistic orientation of congregational culture at Riverstane Church suggests an approach to pastoral care based upon the quality of 'interpathy' as a modified form of empathy