Red Cities, Blue Cities: Creativity, Growth and Politics

The 2006 Congressional elections seemed to be about change, as well as the war in Iraq. The 2008 Presidential election, though only at the primary stage, seems to be about change as well as the war in Iraq and the faltering economy. What is the force behind Americans wanting “change?” Is it simply frustration or is it because of important changes in the economy and the demography of the United States? In his 2002 book, Richard Florida looked at one of those changes and developed a “creativity index” measuring the existence of creative people, economic activity, and cultural tolerance for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. This study looks at the connection between the rise of the creative class, economic growth and voting patterns. We find that more creative metropolitan areas grow faster on average and creative areas are more likely to have voted Democratic in the past. Even after controlling for union membership, the presence of creative people explains how metropolitan areas voted in the 2004 Presidential election, hinting at one force behind Americans’ desire for political change.

The Spillover Effects of Country Fragility in Africa

With a focus on African countries, the purpose of this study is to test if country fragility, defined as  failing social, political, and economic systems, can spillover and ‘infect’ its neighbors. In other words, can failure in one country spillover and weaken the systems of its contiguous neighbor(s)?  This question extends previous research exploring negative country-neighbor contagion effects and the results are relevant to current debates regarding best strategies for building regional stability in Africa.  The spillover effect is tested using the Fund for Peace’s 2015 Fragile States Index (FSI), a broad measure of country fragility, and the Moran Index, a measure of spatial autocorrelation. The results of this analysis indicate that country failure has a significant spillover effect with its contiguous neighbors, which supports the policy shift some international aid organizations have made toward building regional resilience in Africa.  Specifically, policy makers have begun to consider responses to global crises that take a more regional, rather than national, perspective and the results of this analysis support this strategic policy shift. Key Words: Weak States, Failed States, Spillover Effect, Country Neighbor Effect

Human Trafficking: The Role of Culture

Human trafficking, like any market, involves both a supply and a demand.  In reference to the demand side, wealth has been generally recognized as the significant ‘pull’ factor to human trafficking; however, a debate remains, with exception to income, as to the significant ‘push’ or supply factors.  It is argued here that culture is an important, overlooked push factor.  Using Hofstede’s (1980) four dimensions of national culture, the primary purpose of this study is to empirically test to role of culture as a ‘push’ factor in human trafficking.  An ordered probit regression is estimated using the UNODC’s (2006) scaled measure of national human trafficking outflows across countries.  While controlling for economic development, the impact of Hofstede’s (1980) four cultural dimensions on human trafficking outflows are examined.  The analysis provides empirical evidence that two of the four Hofstede (1980) cultural dimensions significantly affect the likelihood that a country has a higher outflow of people being trafficked.    The results suggest that efforts to combat human trafficking should include educational campaigns that are tailored to address the cultural dimensions within a country. Keywords: Human Trafficking, Push Factors, Culture, Individualism, Power Distanc

MODELING SPATIAL DEPENDENCE AND SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY IN COUNTY YIELD FORECASTING MODELS

The implications of ignoring potential spatial dependence in county-level yield data are discussed. Spatial dependence in a county-level yield data set is identified and methods for correcting the dependence via spatial weighting matrices and generalized least squares regression are performed. The paper also examines how the spatial dependence declines as the distance between observations increases.Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Formal Female Entrepreneurship and the Shadow Economy

Although female entrepreneurship yields products, markets, and business models that might not exist otherwise and are relevant to economic growth and development as well as issues related to gender equality, the factors that drive female entrepreneurship is largely understudied. The primary objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the size of a country’s informal sector and the prevalence of female entrepreneurship in the formal economy. This relationship is empirically tested using a regression analysis that employs a cross-country data set of 70 countries. The analysis results indicate a significant inverse relationship between the size of the informal sector and the prevalence of formal sector female entrepreneurship. It is argued that a larger informal economy implies a greater number of women working in the informal sector due to discriminatory barriers to the formal economy. Both formal sector entrepreneurship and work in the informal economy can lessen the barrier to entry women face related to work-life balance by allowing greater flexibility in work hours; however, employment in the informal sector is a relatively poor substitute to formal sector employment as informal sector work does not include benefits, nor is it taxed or included in official statistics. Policy recommendations for encouraging formal female entrepreneurship are made. Promoting female entrepreneurship in the formal sector not only helps to close gender, inequality gaps, but also serves to improve tax systems, lessen distortions in national accounts and official indicators, and improve the provision of public goods

A Seat at the Table or a Power Seat: The Impact of Simple Representation Versus Power Representation of Women in Government on Funding for Primary Education

Scholars have repeatedly shown that female politicians focus more on common good issues such as health care and education than their male counterparts. When men hold the majority of positions of political power these issues may not be raised for debate within government even if women are present. Using a cross-country dataset, this research examines the impact of women in government on public spending on primary education. Specifically, it explores whether it is enough for women to be represented in government, or if they must have a position of power to effect policy outcomes. The analysis results indicate that both women’s simple representation and power representation are significantly positively correlated with increases in federal spending on primary education; however, when women hold positions of political power there is a greater impact on funding than when they simply hold a seat in the legislature

Illicit Trade and Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions

Research purpose. Growth of illicit trade has markedly increased and caused damage to a multitude of economic, socio-economic and environmental outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Hofstede’s country cultural dimensions on the attitudes towards illicit trade and the political will to counter the crime across countries

Assessing terrorist risk and FDI using relative information measures

Recent research has explored the determinants of terrorism and the impact that terrorist activity has on a country. However, to date, no research has examined what specific aspect of terrorist risk most significantly impacts a country's ability to operate in the global market. Using the five sub-indices of the World Market Research Center's Global Terrorism Index, this study explores how the different dimensions of terrorist risk impact the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) using a Shannon information measure of relationship. The results of this research suggest that a country's proven ability to prevent terrorist activity has the most significant impact on investment decisions in regard to FDI.