Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability

In this study, we address the question of whether the mid-Pliocene climate can act as an analogue for a future warm climate with elevated CO2 concentrations, specifically regarding Northern Hemisphere winter variability. We use a set of sensitivity simulations with the global coupled climate model CESM1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr), which is part of the PlioMIP2 model ensemble, to separate the response to a CO2 doubling and to mid-Pliocene boundary conditions other than CO2. In the CO2 doubling simulation, the Aleutian low deepens, and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) strengthens. In response to the mid-Pliocene boundary conditions, sea-level pressure variance decreases over the North Pacific, the PNA becomes weaker and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) becomes the dominant mode of variability. The mid-Pliocene simulation shows a weak North Pacific jet stream that is less variable in intensity but has a high level of variation in jet latitude, consistent with a dominant NPO and indicating that North Pacific atmospheric dynamics become more North Atlantic-like. We demonstrate that the weakening of the Aleutian low, and subsequent relative dominance of the NPO over the PNA, is related to shifts in tropical Pacific convection. Variability in the North Atlantic shows little variation between all simulations. The opposite response in North Pacific winter variability to elevated CO2 or mid-Pliocene boundary conditions demonstrates that the mid-Pliocene climate cannot serve as a future analogue in this regard

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks

Resolution dependence of extreme precipitation and deep convection over the Gulf Stream

Modeled wintertime precipitation over the Atlantic Gulf Stream region is shown to be sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM). By contrasting simulations with the EC-Earth GCM over a range of horizontal resolutions (T159, T319, T799), it is shown that especially the precipitation extremes become more populated if resolution is higher. Higher resolution also appears to strengthen the communication from the sea surface toward the troposphere. With increasing resolution, deep convection over the Gulf Stream region, diagnosed via wind-convergence and vertical motion, occurs more frequently and the former is in better agreement with observations. Likewise the frequency increase of the precipitation extremes over the region for increasing resolution makes them agree better with observations, despite large natural variability and discrepancies between different observational sources

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks