How useful are the estimates of the economic consequences of Brexit?

In this blog, Josh De Lyon (LSE's Centre for Economic Performance) discusses some of the concerns with the economic forecasts of the effects of Brexit and suggests that the available reports are informative of the likely consequences of Brexit. He also provides an insight into how such research should be interpreted, beyond the headline-grabbing figures reported in the news

Florence speech falls short on the details of a bespoke arrangement with the EU

Theresa May stepped in to lead the discussion on what the UK hopes to achieve from its Brexit negotiations with the EU. Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon (CEP, LSE) argue that her Florence speech has set the tone for details that are yet to come. On trade, the PM reiterated that the UK would be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union after Brexit. ..

The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in UK prices, especially food

Since Britain's EU referendum, UK inflation has risen faster than that of the Eurozone. Price rises have varied across sectors, but as Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra, and Stephen Machin show, the rise in the growth rate of food prices has been particularly pronounced. As a result, real wage growth in the UK has again turned negative

A global trade war is one more reason for the UK to prioritise its future relationship with the EU

The world is amid a global trade war which currently shows no signs of dissipating. How could this global trade dispute affect Britain and the Brexit process? Josh De Lyon (LSE) argues that it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK is beginning to prioritise its future relationship with the EU, and that potential trade agreements with third countries appear to be of secondary importance

The Brexit vote has caused a significant rise in prices, especially food

Since the referendum, UK inflation has risen faster than that of the Eurozone. Price rises have varied across sectors, but Josh De Lyon, Swati Dhingra, and Stephen Machin (LSE's Centre for Economic Performance) show that the rise in the growth rate of food prices has been particularly pronounced. As a result, real wage growth in the UK has again turned negative. The pattern ..

Brexit is still a hot topic on Twitter, but public sentiments remain largely unchanged

The Brexit debate is intense and continues to dominate the UK policy agenda. It concerns the entire population. Josh De Lyon, Elsa Leromain and Maria Molina-Domene (LSE) use Twitter data to characterise the online discussion. The data shows that politics is the core topic for Twitter users who post about Brexit. Interestingly, the overall sentiment around Brexit appears to be quite stable over time and people continue to be divided

Enduring strengths: Analysing the UKs current and potential economic strengths, and what they mean for its economic strategy, at the start of the decisive decade

Key to building a new economic strategy which can revitalise the UK economy after a decade of stagnation is understanding our current strengths, how these strengths evolve, and the trade-offs they present.The report uses global data on trade in goods and services and patenting to uncover where the UK's relative strengths lie; we study the extent to which these strengths have changed over time and compare with international peers; and undertake several deep dives into the areas in which the UK has developed a specialism. Finally we consider what the UK's mix of specialisms means for a wider economic strategy

Brexit and consumer food prices

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation and costing households in the UK. While the original paper used data up to January 2022, this report updates the dataset through to March 2023. The methodology is otherwise identical so for more details please consult the original paper (appended to this paper)

Understanding Brexit: impacts at local level: Ceredigion case study

The UK is in a critical juncture with regard to the process of negotiations to leave the European Union. Important discussions are taking place which will shape the future relation between Britain and the EU. The economic analyses published on the issue have, so far, largely failed to grasp the attention of the general public. Most of the discussions about Brexit have focused at a national level and there has been very little evidence-based discussion at a local level. This project aims at stimulating a reflexive participatory research process involving citizens, policy-makers, business people and civil-society representatives. It introduces an innovative methodology that contextualises quantitative data through expert interviews and the analysis of local sources. The reports and discussion panels organised within the framework of the project seek to increase our understanding about the impact of Brexit at a local level