From Currency Unions to a World Currency: A Possibility?

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the main macroeconomic determinants of benefits and costs by undertaking processes of monetary integration, and investigate the possibility that currency unions could be lead to the creation of a global currency in the future. In particular, we will consider two main costs and benefits predicted by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: (i) the business-cycle correlation between the candidate’s economy and that of the currency zone as a whole, and (ii) the candidate economy’s inflationary bias. Using this methodology, the results of the paper provide empirical evidence of the existence of several optimal currency areas in the world. Moreover, the creation of a world common currency area is not as unrealistic as it might seem at first sight.Currency Unions, World Currency

Average tax rate cyclicality in OECD countries: A test of three fiscal policy theories

This paper investigates the cyclical properties of the average effective tax rate in 26 OECD countries over 1965-2003 in order to test the validity of three theories of fiscal policy: (i) the standard Keynesian theory which recommends that tax policy should be counter-cyclical, (ii) the Tax Smoothing hypothesis, which implies that changes in GDP should be uncorrelated with tax rates, and (iii) the positive theory of Battaglini and Coate (2008) which predicts that the average tax rate should be negatively correlated with GDP. Our main finding is that the correlations of tax rates with cyclical GDP are generally quite small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. This finding is quite robust and is more consistent with the implications of the Tax Smoothing hypothesis than either the recommendations of the standard Keynesian model or the predictions of Battaglini and Coate’s theory.Fiscal Policy; Tax Rates; Business Cycle

Business cycle synchronization and insurance mechanisms in the EU

In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have well synchronized business cycles, for some of the other countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area’s business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms may not provide enough insurance against shocks. JEL Classification: E32, E42, F41, F42business cycle synchronization, EU, Insurance Mechanisms, Optimum Currency Areas

Tax Design in the OECD: A test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis

This paper investigates the effects of economic size and trade openness on tax design in the OECD. Using data for thirty OECD countries over the 1965-2007 period, we test the recently proposed Hines-Summers [2009] Hypothesis, according to which the smaller the size and the greater the openness of the economy, the more it will rely on expenditure taxes and the less on income taxes. Our findings show that the Hines-Summers Hypothesis can claim broad, statistically significant, and robust empirical support in the OECD data sets we examined.Income tax; Consumption tax; Country size; Trade openness

Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union

This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.EMU Enlargement; Stabilisation; Synchronization; Sectoral Business Cycle.

Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth

This paper analyses the effects in terms of size and volatility of government revenue and spending on growth in OECD and EU countries. The results of the paper suggest that both variables are detrimental to growth. In particular, looking more closely at the effect of each component of government revenue and spending, the results point out that i) indirect taxes (size and volatility); ii) social contributions (size and volatility); iii) government consumption (size and volatility); iv) subsidies (size); and v) government investment (volatility) have a sizeable, negative and statistically significant effect on growth.Fiscal Policy; Government Size; Fiscal Volatility; Economic Growth.

Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU

In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have well synchronized business cycles, for some of the other countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area’s business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms may not provide enough insurance against shocks.EU; Optimum Currency Areas; Business Cycle Synchronization; Insurance Mechanisms.

How costly are debt crises?

The aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.Output Losses; Debt Crises; Sovereign Defaults.

Business cycle volatility and country zize :evidence for a sample of OECD countries

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between business cycle volatility and country size using quarterly data for a sample of OECD countries over 1960-2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This finding is very robust, suggesting that country size does matter, at least for the severity of cyclical fluctuations.Country Size

The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt

The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises for public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises are associated with a significant and long- lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, we find that for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find that the debt ratio increased more in countries with a worse initial fiscal position (in terms of the gross debt-to-GDP ratio) and with a higher share of foreign debt.Output Growth, Financial Crisis, CEECs