Are a “can do” Attitude and a can of Red Bull Enough? Workload and Fatigue in High-stakes, High-demand Carrier Sortie Operations

AbstractThe purpose of this investigation was to examine the role of fatigue and crew endurance in human performance of Carrier Sortie requirements; this mission capability involves high-stakes, high-demand, high-tempo operations in a challenging maritime environment. The researchers engaged with a panel of Nimitz crewmembers for a discussion of workload, notional schedules, and endurance risk factors. Workload was examined with models that consider the human capacity for sustaining. The investigation found that more attention is paid to physical fatigue, compared to cognitive or mental fatigue. Crewmembers emphasized that crew has a “can do” attitude to combat fatigue; the crew stated that “pride and adrenaline overpower fatigue…plus coffee and Red Bull.” They indicated that this results in good initiative, but at times bad judgment while trying to accomplish the work. The current research posits that fatigue is likely to reduce the ability of crewmembers to tolerate sustained performance and associated increased physiological and cognitive costs. However, the authors also recognize the limits of fatigue science with regard to predicting human capacity in intense operational and combat conditions. There is much anecdotal information to suggest that sailors are managing fatigue despite the predictions of various fatigue models. As a result, we cannot yet predict with certainty when the accumulated workload and fatigue of the individual sailor will be untenable, or identify critical thresholds of degraded cognitive capacity and decision making. Rather than rely solely on fatigue prediction software, it is recommended that potential mitigations are considered that might provide the crew more tools to manage endurance as a fatigue abatement strategy. The development of a crew endurance program to mitigate the risks posed by fatigue and reduced alertness during carrier sortie operations would identify risks relating to fatigue and alertness, and generate solutions to mitigate these risks by controlling exposure to endurance risk factors during normal operations so that the crew will be better prepared to respond to any operational demand

The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

Abstract The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which control hydropower availability). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g., Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over†and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g., California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, our results suggest future extreme heat in California could exert a stronger influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands

LOCAL IgA-MEMORY RESPONSE TO BACTERIAL ANTIGENS *

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72248/1/j.1749-6632.1983.tb26912.x.pd

Olfactory Thresholds of the U.S. Population of Home-Dwelling Older Adults: Development and Validation of a Short, Reliable Measure

Current methods of olfactory sensitivity testing are logistically challenging and therefore infeasible for use in in-home surveys and other field settings. We developed a fast, easy and reliable method of assessing olfactory thresholds, and used it in the first study of olfactory sensitivity in a nationally representative sample of U.S. home-dwelling older adults. We validated our method via computer simulation together with a model estimated from 590 normosmics. Simulated subjects were assigned n-butanol thresholds drawn from the estimated normosmic distribution and based on these and the model, we simulated administration of both the staircase and constant stimuli methods. Our results replicate both the correlation between the two methods and their reliability as previously reported by studies using human subjects. Further simulations evaluated the reliability of different constant stimuli protocols, varying both the range of dilutions and number of stimuli (6–16). Six appropriately chosen dilutions were sufficient for good reliability (0.67) in normosmic subjects. Finally, we applied our method to design a 5-minute, in-home assessment of older adults (National Social Life, Health and Aging Project, or NSHAP), which had comparable reliability (0.56), despite many subjects having estimated thresholds above the strongest dilution. Thus, testing with a fast, 6-item constant stimuli protocol is informative, and permits olfactory testing in previously inaccessible research settings

The Diverse Solar Phase Curves of Distant Icy Bodies. II. The Cause of the Opposition Surges and Their Correlations

We collect well-measured opposition surge properties for many icy bodies orbiting the Sun (mostly from our own observations) plus for many icy moons, resulting in a data base of surface and orbital properties for 52 icy bodies. (1) We put forward four criteria for determining whether the surge is being dominated by shadow hiding (SH) or coherent backscattering (CB) based on readily measured quantities. The CB surge mechanism dominates if the surge is color dependent, the phase curve is steeper than 0.04 mag/deg, the phase curve shape matches the CB model of Hapke, or if the albedo is higher than roughly 40%. (2) We find that virtually all of our sample have their phase curves dominated by CB at low phase angles. (3) We present a graphical method to determine the Hapke surge parameters B_C0 and h_C. (4) The Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) and Centaurs have relatively high surge amplitudes, B_C0 > ~0.5 and widths with h_C ~ 3 deg. (5) We find highly significant but loose correlations between surge properties and the colors, albedos, and inclinations. We interpret this as young surfaces tending to have low surge slopes, high albedo, and gray colors. (6) Nereid has its surface properties similar to other icy moons and greatly different from KBOs and Centaurs, so we conclude that Nereid is likely a nearly-ejected inner Neptunian moon rather than a captured KBO.Comment: Astronomical Journal, in press, 41 pages, 5 figure

The relationship between sensory sensitivity and autistic traits in the general population.

Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) tend to have sensory processing difficulties (Baranek et al. in J Child Psychol Psychiatry 47:591–601, 2006). These difficulties include over- and under-responsiveness to sensory stimuli, and problems modulating sensory input (Ben-Sasson et al. in J Autism Dev Disorders 39:1–11, 2009). As those with ASD exist at the extreme end of a continuum of autistic traits that is also evident in the general population, we investigated the link between ASD and sensory sensitivity in the general population by administering two questionnaires online to 212 adult participants. Results showed a highly significant positive correlation (r = .775, p < .001) between number of autistic traits and the frequency of sensory processing problems. These data suggest a strong link between sensory processing and autistic traits in the general population, which in turn potentially implicates sensory processing problems in social interaction difficulties

Estimates of volcanic mercury emissions from Redoubt Volcano, Augustine Volcano, and Mount Spurr eruption ash

Ash is a potential sink of volcanically sourced atmospheric mercury (Hg), and the concentration of particle-bound Hg may provide constraints on Hg emissions during eruptions. We analyze Hg concentrations in 227 bulk ash samples from the Mount Spurr (1992), Redoubt Volcano (2009), and Augustine Volcano (2006) volcanic eruptions to investigate large-scale spatial, temporal, and volcanic-source trends. We find no significant difference in Hg concentrations in bulk ash by distance or discrete eruptive events at each volcano, suggesting that in-plume reactions converting gaseous Hg0 to adsorbed Hg2+ are happening on shorter timescales than considered in this study (minutes) and any additional in-plume controls are not discernable within intra-volcanic sample variability. However, we do find a significant difference in Hg concentration of ash among volcanic sources, which indicates that volcanoes may emit comparatively high or low quantities of Hg. We combine our Hg findings with total mass estimates of ashfall deposits to calculate minimum, first-order Hg emissions of 8.23 t Hg for Mount Spurr (1992), 1.25 t Hg for Redoubt Volcano (2009), and 0.16 t Hg for Augustine Volcano (2006). In particular, we find that Mount Spurr is a high Hg emitting volcano, and that its 1992 particulate Hg emissions likely contributed substantially to the global eruptive volcanic Hg budget for that year. Based on our findings, previous approaches that use long-term Hg/SO2 mass ratios to estimate eruptive total Hg under-account for Hg emitted in explosive events, and global volcanogenic Total Hg estimates need revisiting

Of Roots and Fruits: A Comparison of Psychedelic and Nonpsychedelic Mystical Experiences

Experiences of profound existential or spiritual significance can be triggered reliably through psychopharmacological means using psychedelic substances. However, little is known about the benefits of religious, spiritual, or mystical experiences (RSMEs) prompted by psychedelic substances, as compared with those that occur through other means. In this study, 739 self-selected participants reported the psychological impact of their RSMEs and indicated whether they were induced by a psychedelic substance. Experiences induced by psychedelic substances were rated as more intensely mystical ( d = .75, p &lt; .001), resulted in a reduced fear of death ( d = .21, p &lt; .01), increased sense of purpose ( d = .18, p &lt; .05), and increased spirituality ( d = .28, p &lt; .001) as compared with nonpsychedelically triggered RSMEs. These results remained significant in an expanded model controlling for gender, education, socioeconomic status, and religious affiliation. These findings lend support to the growing consensus that RSMEs induced with psychedelic substances are genuinely mystical and generally positive in outcome. </jats:p