Sparse Model Identification and Learning for Ultra-high-dimensional Additive Partially Linear Models

The additive partially linear model (APLM) combines the flexibility of nonparametric regression with the parsimony of regression models, and has been widely used as a popular tool in multivariate nonparametric regression to alleviate the "curse of dimensionality". A natural question raised in practice is the choice of structure in the nonparametric part, that is, whether the continuous covariates enter into the model in linear or nonparametric form. In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework for simultaneous sparse model identification and learning for ultra-high-dimensional APLMs where both the linear and nonparametric components are possibly larger than the sample size. We propose a fast and efficient two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we decompose the nonparametric functions into a linear part and a nonlinear part. The nonlinear functions are approximated by constant spline bases, and a triple penalization procedure is proposed to select nonzero components using adaptive group LASSO. In the second stage, we refit data with selected covariates using higher order polynomial splines, and apply spline-backfitted local-linear smoothing to obtain asymptotic normality for the estimators. The procedure is shown to be consistent for model structure identification. It can identify zero, linear, and nonlinear components correctly and efficiently. Inference can be made on both linear coefficients and nonparametric functions. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance of the method and apply the proposed method to a dataset on the Shoot Apical Meristem (SAM) of maize genotypes for illustration

Interest-rate models: an extension to the usage in the energy market and pricing exotic energy derivatives.

In this thesis, we review various popular pricing models in the interest-rate market. Among these pricing models, we choose the LIBOR Market model (LMM) as the benchmark model. Based on market practice experience, we also develop a pricing model named the “Market volatility model”. By pricing vanilla interest-rate options such as interest-rate caps and swaptions, we compare the performance of our Market volatility model to that of the LMM. It is proved that the Market Volatility model produce comparable results to the LMM, while its computing efficiency largely exceeds that of the LMM. Following the recent rapid development in the commodity market, in particular the energy market, we attempt to extend the use of our proposed Market volatility model from the interest-rate market to the energy market. We prove that the Market Volatility model is capable of pricing various energy derivative under the assumption of absence of the convenience yield. In addition, we propose a new type of exotic energy derivative which has a flexible option structure. This energy derivative is named as the Flex-Asian spread options (FASO). We give examples of different option structures within the FASO framework and use the Market volatility model to generate option prices and greeks for each structure. Although the Market volatility model can be used to price various energy derivatives based on oil/gas contracts, it is not compatible with the structure of one of the most advanced derivatives in the energy market, the storage option. We modify the existing pricing model for storage options and use our own 3D-binomial tree approach to price gas storage contracts. By doing these, we improve the performance of the traditional storage model

Feeding back Information on Ineligibility from Sample Surveys to the Frame

It is usually discovered in the data collection phase of a survey that some units in the sample are ineligible even if the frame information has indicated otherwise. For example, in many business surveys a nonnegligible proportion of the sampled units will have ceased trading since the latest update of the frame. This information may be fed back to the frame and used in subsequent surveys, thereby making forthcoming samples more efficient by avoiding sampling nonnegligible units. We investigate what effect on survey estimation the process of feeding back information on ineligibility may have, and derive an expression for the bias that can occur as a result of feeding back. The focus is on estimation of the total using the common expansion estimator. We obtain an estimator that is nearly unbiased in the presence of feed back. This estimator relies on consistent estimates of the number of eligible and ineligible units in the population being available

Classification of Argyres-Douglas theories from M5 branes

We obtain a large class of new 4d Argyres-Douglas theories by classifying irregular punctures for the 6d (2,0) superconformal theory of ADE type on a sphere. Along the way, we identify the connection between the Hitchin system and three-fold singularity descriptions of the same Argyres-Douglas theory. Other constructions such as taking degeneration limits of the irregular puncture, adding an extra regular puncture, and introducing outer-automorphism twists are also discussed. Later we investigate various features of these theories including their Coulomb branch spectrum and central charges.Comment: 35 pages, 9 tables, 6 figures. v2: minor correction