Aging society, health and the environment

Both environmental quality and health care expenditure are determinants of health and life expectancy, but the support for them appears to be different according to the electors' age, with a relatively larger support for health expenditure among the elderly as it is generally effective on a shorter horizon than environmental maintenance. With population aging, the political support for health care expenditure is then self-reinforcing. We cast this issue in an overlapping generations model with endogenous longevity, where lifespan depends on health care expenditure and environmental quality. We compare the long run outcomes for health care expenditure, environmental quality, lifespan, consumption and capital accumulation of an economy where agents vote over health spending and environmental maintenance, with those chosen by a social planner who takes into account also the welfare of future generations. The role played by other factors, such as the propensity for smoothing consumption or the degree of annuity markets, is also highlighted. Empirical evidence of age-biased environmental care is provided.population aging, endogenous longevity, environmental and health expenditure, annuity markets, inter-generational conflict, overlapping generations

Low skilled immigration and the expansion of private schools

A political-economic model is provided to study the impact of low-skilled immigration on the receiving country's education system, in terms of sources of school funding, expenditure per pupil, and type of parents who are more likely to send children to privately funded schools. The education regime results from the interplay between households' choices on fertility and education and the public education provided. No exogenous culturally-based difference is assumed among agents. Low-skilled migrant workers differ from their local counterparts only in voting rights and adjustment costs. The impact of immigration on public school congestion, tax base, wages and skill premium are considered. When the number of low-skilled immigrants is large, the education regime tends to become more segregated, with wealthier locals more likely to opt out of the public system into private schools. The fertility differential between high- and low-skilled locals increases due to a quantity/quality trade-off. The theoretical predictions conform to stylized facts revealed in US census data and OECD PISA (2003).double taxation, education funding, fertility, migration, segregation, voting

Low-skilled Immigration and Education Policy with Endogenous Fertility

This paper studies the impact of low-skilled immigration on the host country’s education policy, which is formulated by the natives via voting and refers to both school funding sources and resources in the public funded schools. When the size of low-skilled immigrants is large, it is found that wealthier natives are likely to opt out from public into private school. Four main effects of immigration are taken into account : (1) greater congestion in public school; (2) lower average tax base for education funding; (3) reduced low-skilled wage and so more low-skilled natives’ dependence on public education; (4) higher skill premium, which induces high-skilled natives to privately invest in their children’ s education and hence weakens their support to finance public school. The theoretical predictions are not at odds with cross-country stylized facts revealed in both micro and macro data. Moreover, with endogenous fertility, the opting-out decision taken by some native parents results in the empirically observed fertility differential between natives and immigrantsvoting, taxes and subsidies, education; fertitlity, migration

Low-Skilled Immigration and th Expansion of Private Schools

This paper studies the impact of low-skilled immigration on the host country’s education system, which is characterized by sources of school funding, expenditres per pupil, and types of parents who are more likely to send children to publicly (privately) funded schools. When the size of low-skilled immigrants is large, it is found that wealthier natives are likely to opt out from public into private schools. Four main effects of immigration are taken into account : (1) greater congestion in public school; (2) lower average tax base for education funding; (3) reduced low-skilled wage and so more low-skilled natives to privately invest in their children’s education and hence weakens their support to finance public school. The theoretical predictions are not at odds with cross-country stylized facts revealed in both micro and macro data. Moreover, with endogenous fertility, the opting-out decision taken by some native parents results in the empirically observed fertility differential between natives and immigrantsVoting, Taxes and Subsidies, Education, Fertility, Migration

Low-Skilled Immigration and the Expansion of Private Schools

This paper provides a political-economic model to study the impact of low-skilled immigration on the host country's education system, which is characterized by sources of school funding, the average expenditure per pupil, and the type of parents who are more likely to send their children to publicly or privately funded schools. Four main effects of immigration are considered: (1) greater congestion in public schools; (2) a lower average tax base for education funding; (3) reduced wages for low-skilled workers and so more dependence by low-skilled locals on public education; (4) a greater skill premium, which makes it easier for high-skilled locals to afford private education for their children, and hence weakens their support for financing public school. It is found that when the size of low-skilled immigrants is large, the education regime tends to become more segregated with wealthier locals more likely to opt out of the public system into private schools. The fertility differential between high and low-skilled locals increases due to a quantity/quality trade-off. The theoretical predictions are consistent with empirical evidence from both the U.S. census data and the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (2003).voting, taxes and subsidies, education, fertility, migration

Easter Island’s Collapse : A Tale of a Population Race

The Easter Island tragedy has become an allegory for ecological catastrophe and a warning for the future. In the economic literature the collapse is usually attributed to irrational or myopic behaviors in the context of a fragile ecosystem. In this paper we propose an alternative story involving non-cooperative bargaining between clans to share the crop. Each clan’s bargaining power depends on its threat level when fighting a war. The biggest group has the highest probability of winning. A clan’s fertility is determined ex ante by each group. In the quest for greater bargaining power, each clan’s optimal size depends on that of the other clan, and a population race follows. This race may exhaust the natural resources and lead to the ultimate collapse of the society. In addition to well-known natural factors, the likelihood of a collapse turns out to be greater when the cost of war is low, the probability of succeeding in war is highly responsive to the number of fighters, and the marginal return to labor is not too low. We analyze whether these factors can account for the difference between Easter and Tikopia Islands. The paper also makes a methodological contribution in that it is the first fertility model to include strategic complementarities between groups’ fertility decisionsFertility, War, Bargaining Power, Collapse, Natural Resources

Easter Island’s collapse: A tale of a population race

We study different extended formulations for the set (formule) in order to tackle the feasibility problem for the set (formule). Here the goal is not to find an improved polyhedral relaxation of conv(X+), but rather to reformulate in such a way that the new variables introduced provide good branching directions, and in certain circumstances permit one to deduce rapidly that the instance is infeasible. For the case that A has one row a we analyze the reformulations in more detail. In particular, we determine the integer width of the extended formulations in the direction of the last coordinate, and derive a lower bound on the Frobenius number of a. We also suggest how a decomposition of the vector a can be obtained that will provide a useful extended formulation. Our theoretical results are accompanied by a small computational study.fertility, war, bargaining power, collapse, natural resources.

Unsupervised machine learning and geometric morphometrics as tools for the identification of inter and intraspecific variations in the Anopheles Maculipennis complex

Geometric morphometric analysis was combined with two different unsupervised machine learning algorithms, UMAP and HDBSCAN, to visualize morphological differences in wing shape among and within four Anopheles sibling species (An. atroparvus, An. melanoon, An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq.) of the Maculipennis complex in Northern Italy. Specifically, we evaluated: (1) wing shape variation among and within species; (2) the consistencies between groups of An. maculipennis s.s. and An. daciae sp. inq. identified based on COI sequences and wing shape variability; and (3) the spatial and temporal distribution of different morphotypes. UMAP detected at least 13 main patterns of variation in wing shape among the four analyzed species and mapped intraspecific morphological variations. The relationship between the most abundant COI haplotypes of An. daciae sp. inq. and shape ordination/variation was not significant. However, morphological variation within haplotypes was reported. HDBSCAN also recognized different clusters of morphotypes within An. daciae sp. inq. (12) and An. maculipennis s.s. (4). All morphotypes shared a similar pattern of variation in the subcostal vein, in the anal vein and in the radio-medial cross-vein of the wing. On the contrary, the marginal part of the wings remained unchanged in all clusters of both species. Any spatial-temporal significant difference was observed in the frequency of the identified morphotypes. Our study demonstrated that machine learning algorithms are a useful tool combined with geometric morphometrics and suggest to deepen the analysis of inter and intra specific shape variability to evaluate evolutionary constrains related to wing functionality

Arbovirus Screening in Mosquitoes in Emilia-Romagna (Italy, 2021) and Isolation of Tahyna Virus

Several viruses can be transmitted by mosquitoes. We searched some of these viruses in 20,778 mosquitoes, collected in 95 traps on the plains of Emilia-Romagna (North of Italy) in 2021. We detected West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) in pools of Culex (Cx.) pipiens. In addition, we detected two insect-specific flaviviruses in three pools of Aedes (Ae.) caspius and in two of Ae. vexans. Tahyna virus (TAHV) was detected in six pools, three of Ae. caspius and three of Cx. pipiens, and one isolated strain was obtained from one of the Ae. caspius pools. Moreover, we detected TAHV in pools of several mosquito species (Ae. caspius, Ae. vexans, Ae. albopictus, Anopheles maculipennis s.l.) collected in the previous year of surveillance. Our data indicate Ae. caspius as the species most infected with TAHV in the surveyed area. Together with the likely plasticity of the cycle, we reported strong genome stability of the TAHV, probably linked to a successful adaptation of the virus to its ecological niche. Interestingly, in six pools of Cx. pipiens we detected two associated viruses among USUV, WNV, TAHV and all the three viruses in two pools. This result allows us to assume the presence of particular conditions that prompt the circulation of arboviruses, creating the conditions for viral hot spots. While no human diseases related to Tahyna virus were reported in Italy, its detection over the years suggests that it is worth investigating this virus as a potential cause of disease in humans in order to assess its health burden. IMPORTANCE We reported in this work the detection of three Arboviruses (Arthropod-borne viruses) in mosquitoes collected in Emilia-Romagna in 2021. In addition to West Nile and Usutu viruses, which were reported from more than 10 years in the study area, we detected and isolated Tahyna virus (TAHV). We also reported detections of TAHV obtained in previous years of surveillance in different species of mosquitoes. TAHV is the potential causative agent of summer influenza-like diseases and also of meningitis. Even if human cases of disease referable to this virus are not reported in Italy, its relevant presence in mosquitoes suggests investigating the possibility they could