PERFORMANCE OF MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODELS IN PREDICTING ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OF OGUN STATE, NIGERIA

The performance of Autoregressive Moving Average and Multiple Linear Regression Models in predicting minimum and maximum temperatures of Ogun State is herein reported. Maximum and Minimum temperatures data covering a period of 29 years (1982 -2009) obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Abeokuta office, Nigeria, were used for the analyses. The data were first processed and aggregated into annual time series. Mann-Kendal non-parametric test and spectral analysis were carried out to detect whether there is trend, seasonal pattern, and either short or long memory in the time series. Mann-Kendal Z-values obtained are –0.47 and –2.03 for minimum and maximum temperatures respectively, indicating no trend, though the plot shows a slight change. The Lo’s R/S Q(N,q) values for minimum and maximum temperatures are 3.67 and 4.43, which are not within the range 0.809 and 1.862, thus signifying presence of long memory. The data was divided into two and the first 20 years data was used for model development, while the remaining was used for validation. Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model of order (5, 3) and Autoregressive (AR) model of order 2 are found best for predicting minimum and maximum temperatures respectively. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model with 4 features (moving average, exponential moving average, rate of change and oscillator) were fitted for both temperatures. The ARMA and AR models were found to perform better with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of -2.89 and -1.37 for minimum and maximum temperatures, compared with the Multiple Linear Regression Models with MAPE values of 141 and 876 respectively. Results of ARMA model can be relied on in generating forecast of temperature of the study area because of their minimal error values. However, it is recommended other climatic elements that were not captured in this paper due to unavailability of information be considered too in order to see which model is best for them. &nbsp

QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER SUPPLY IN MURTALA MUHAMMED INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, LAGOS, NIGERIA

This research assessed the quality of water and by implication the functionality of the treatment plant units in Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja, Nigeria. Raw water samples were collected at eight different points from the plant to the end users for three consecutive months. Physico-chemical properties of collected samples were analysed using standard methods and compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) standard. The values of properties obtained for plant raw and treated water ranged from .19 - 7.4, 24.60 - 26.00oC, 3.79- 0.00 NTU, 33.30-16.70Hazen,0.17 -0.00mg/l and 36.7 -44.30 ppm, for pH, temperature, turbidity, hazencolour, iron content, total dissolved solid respectively. While the values obtained for total hardness, calcium hardness, magnesium hardness, residue chlorine, odour, electrical conductivity, nitrate, BOD and  Dissolved Oxygen, were 7.3 -5.7mg/l,3.7 -3.00 mg/l3.7-2.7mg/l,0.00 -0.00mg/l,46– 72µs/c, 0.59 - 0.56 mg/l,  3.23 - 4.17mg/l and 2.66 - 2.75 mg/l respectively. The values of parameters for the treated water were in all cases always better than those obtained for the raw water. All the physico-chemical properties obtained for the treatment line were within WHO standard except for raw water pH whose value was lower than the recommended WHO value. This observation showed that the treatment units improved the quality of the treated water and it is safe to use as potable water

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDIGENOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY REFUSE PICKER

Handling and removal of harmful waste from our environment is a collective responsibility that all must embrace to make the world a safe habitat. A low cost environmental friendly waste picker was devel-oped. Biometric force evaluation of the end user obtained averaged 469.73 N. The refuse picker was calibrated to obtain the spring constant of 3030.73 N/m. The tool was tested and found to perform well in picking objects of different weights and of regular and irregular shapes ranging from 0.12 g to 2.72 kg. Serrated jaw enhanced the picking performance of the unit whilst picking a circular object without slipping off. The maximum safe horizontal and vertical loading recommended for the tool at picking was 0.5 kg. The picker was used to pick the smallest item, a pin of diameter 0.70 mm and weight of 0.12 g successfully. This tool can be very handy in the hospital where harmful waste such as needles, syringes and other unhealthy substances and waste must be removed from the environment. The tool was made from low cost materials with 40% less than the existing ones