On the regional variability of dB/dt and its significance to GIC

Faraday's law of induction is responsible for setting up a geoelectric field due to the variations in the geomagnetic field caused by ionospheric currents. This drives geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which flow in large ground‐based technological infrastructure such as high‐voltage power lines. The geoelectric field is often a localized phenomenon exhibiting significant variations over spatial scales of only hundreds of kilometers. This is due to the complex spatiotemporal behavior of electrical currents flowing in the ionosphere and/or large gradients in the ground conductivity due to highly structured local geological properties. Over some regions, and during large storms, both of these effects become significant. In this study, we quantify the regional variability of dB/dt using closely placed IMAGE stations in northern Fennoscandia. The dependency between regional variability, solar wind conditions, and geomagnetic indices are also investigated. Finally, we assess the significance of spatial geomagnetic variations to modeling GICs across a transmission line. Key results from this study are as follows: (1) Regional geomagnetic disturbances are important in modeling GIC during strong storms; (2) dB/dt can vary by several times up to a factor of three compared to the spatial average; (3) dB/dt and its regional variation is coupled to the energy deposited into the magnetosphere; and (4) regional variability can be more accurately captured and predicted from a local index as opposed to a global one. These results demonstrate the need for denser magnetometer networks at high latitudes where transmission lines extending hundreds of kilometers are present

Modeling the geomagnetic response to the September 2017 space weather event over Fennoscandia using the Space Weather Modeling Framework: Studying the impacts of spatial resolution

We must be able to predict and mitigate against GIC effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the 7‐8 September 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: 1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, 2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and 3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global MHD modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field

Specification of the near-Earth space environment with SHIELDS

Predicting variations in the near-Earth space environment that can lead to spacecraft damage and failure is one example of “space weather” and a big space physics challenge. A project recently funded through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program aims at developing a new capability to understand, model, and predict Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms, the SHIELDS framework. The project goals are to understand the dynamics of the surface charging environment (SCE), the hot (keV) electrons representing the source and seed populations for the radiation belts, on both macro- and micro-scale. Important physics questions related to particle injection and acceleration associated with magnetospheric storms and substorms, as well as plasma waves, are investigated. These challenging problems are addressed using a team of world-class experts in the fields of space science and computational plasma physics, and state-of-the-art models and computational facilities. A full two-way coupling of physics-based models across multiple scales, including a global MHD (BATS-R-US) embedding a particle-in-cell (iPIC3D) and an inner magnetosphere (RAM-SCB) codes, is achieved. New data assimilation techniques employing in situ satellite data are developed; these provide an order of magnitude improvement in the accuracy in the simulation of the SCE. SHIELDS also includes a post-processing tool designed to calculate the surface charging for specific spacecraft geometry using the Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell (CPIC) code that can be used for reanalysis of satellite failures or for satellite design

The Earth: Plasma Sources, Losses, and Transport Processes

This paper reviews the state of knowledge concerning the source of magnetospheric plasma at Earth. Source of plasma, its acceleration and transport throughout the system, its consequences on system dynamics, and its loss are all discussed. Both observational and modeling advances since the last time this subject was covered in detail (Hultqvist et al., Magnetospheric Plasma Sources and Losses, 1999) are addressed

Model evaluation guidelines for geomagnetic index predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices

The Earth: Plasma Sources, Losses, and Transport Processes

International audienceThis paper reviews the state of knowledge concerning the source of magnetospheric plasma at Earth. Source of plasma, its acceleration and transport throughout the system, its consequences on system dynamics, and its loss are all discussed. Both observational and modeling advances since the last time this subject was covered in detail (Hultqvist et al., Magnetospheric Plasma Sources and Losses, 1999) are addressed