Towards implementing climate services in Peru – The project CLIMANDES

CLIMANDES is a pilot twinning project between the National Weather Services of Peru and Switzerland (SENAMHI and MeteoSwiss), developed within the Global Framework for Climate Services of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Split in two modules, CLIMANDES aims at improving education in meteorology and climatology in support of the WMO Regional Training Center in Peru, and introducing user-tailored climate services in two pilot regions in the Peruvian Andes. Four areas were prioritized in the first phase of CLIMANDES lasting from 2012 to 2015 to introduce climate services in Peru. A demand study identified the user needs of climate services and showed that climate information must be reliable, of high-quality, and precise. The information should be accessible and timely, understandable and applicable for the users’ specific needs. Second, the quality of climate data was enhanced through the establishment of quality control and homogenization procedures at SENAMHI. Specific training and application of the implemented methods at stations in the pilot regions was promoted to ensure the sustainability of the work. Third, the specific work on climate data enabled the creation of a webpage to disseminate climate indicators among users. The forth priority of the project enhanced the broad communication strategy of SENAMHI through creation of a specialized network of journalists, diverse climate forums, and the establishment of a user database. The efforts accomplished within CLIMANDES improved the quality of the climate services provided by SENAMHI. The project hence contributed successfully to higher awareness and higher confidence in the climate information by SENAMHI.Por pare

Climate trends and glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited

The total glacial area of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, has shrunk by more than 30% in the period of 1930 to the present with a marked glacier retreat also in the recent decades. The aim of this paper is to assess local air temperature and precipitation changes in the Cordillera Blanca and to discuss how these variables could have affected the observed glacier retreat between the 1980s and present. A unique data set from a large number of stations in the region of the Cordillera Blanca shows that after a strong air temperature rise of about 0.31 °C per decade between 1969 and 1998, a slowdown in the warming to about 0.13 °C per decade occurred for the 30 years from 1983 to 2012. Additionally, based on data from a long-term meteorological station, it was found that the freezing line altitude during precipitation days has probably not increased significantly in the last 30 years. We documented a cooling trend for maximum daily air temperatures and an increase in precipitation of about 60 mm/decade since the early 1980s. The strong increase in precipitation in the last 30 years probably did not balance the increase of temperature before the 1980s. It is suggested that recent changes in temperature and precipitation alone may not explain the glacial recession within the thirty years from the early 1980s to 2012. Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca may be still reacting to the positive air temperature rise before 1980. Especially small and low-lying glaciers are characterised by a serious imbalance and may disappear in the near future

Climate and ice sheet dynamics in Patagonia throughout marine isotope stages 2 and 3

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 23 000 to 19 000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ∼ 38 to 55° S. Existing paleoclimate evidence – mostly derived from glacial landforms – suggests that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation and its major drivers. Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM. We assess the skill of paleoclimate model products in reproducing the range of atmospheric conditions needed to enable an ice sheet growth in concordance with geomorphological and geochronological evidence. The resulting best-fit climate product is then combined with records from southern South America offshore sediment cores and Antarctic ice cores to drive transient simulations throughout the last 70 ka using a glacial index approach. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on near-surface air temperature forcing. Most ensemble members underestimate the ice cover in the northern part of Patagonia, while tending to expand beyond its constrained eastern boundaries. We largely attribute these discrepancies between the model-based ice geometries and geological evidence to the low resolution of paleoclimate models and their prescribed ice mask. In the southernmost sector, evidence suggests full glacial conditions during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3, ∼ 59 400 to 27 800 years ago), followed by a warming trend towards MIS2 (∼ 27 800 to 14 700 years ago). However, in northern Patagonia, this deglacial trend is absent, indicating a relatively consistent signal throughout MIS3 and MIS2. Notably, Antarctic cores do not reflect a glacial history consistent with the geochronological observations. Therefore, investigations of the glacial history of the PIS should take into account southern midlatitude records to capture effectively its past climatic variability.</p

Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast performance over South America

Seasonal predictions have a great socioeconomic potential if they are reliable and skillful. In this study, we assess the prediction performance of SEAS5, version 5 of the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over South America against homogenized station data. For temperature, we find the highest prediction performances in the tropics during austral summer, where the probability that the predictions correctly discriminate different observed outcomes is 70%. In regions lying to the east of the Andes, the predictions of maximum and minimum temperature still exhibit considerable performance, while farther to the south in Chile and Argentina the temperature prediction performance is low. Generally, the prediction performance of minimum temperature is slightly lower than for maximum temperature. The prediction performance of precipitation is generally lower and spatially and temporally more variable than for temperature. The highest prediction performance is observed at the coast and over the highlands of Colombia and Ecuador, over the northeastern part of Brazil, and over an isolated region to the north of Uruguay during DJF. In general, Niño-3.4 has a strong influence on both air temperature and precipitation in the regions where ECMWF SEAS5 shows high performance, in some regions through teleconnections (e.g., to the north of Uruguay). However, we show that SEAS5 outperforms a simple empirical prediction based on Niño-3.4 in most regions where the prediction performance of the dynamical model is high, thereby supporting the potential benefit of using a dynamical model instead of statistical relationships for predictions at the seasonal scal