Climate change and International River Boundaries: fixed points in shifting sands

The impacts of climate change will have far reaching consequences for transboundary water resources, particularly through the effects of changing frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as floods and their impacts on river channel systems. Watercourses have been used as boundaries throughout history for a variety of reasons, and as both a natural resource and political structure, they present a number of unique challenges. Despite academic studies looking broadly at the effects of changes in runoff on river ecosystems and their resources, less attention has been paid to the socio-political interactions and consequences for river functionality, in particular, as a boundary. We review the historical and legal role of International River Boundaries highlighting the paradox that exists between the stability needed for a boundary and the dynamism of fluvial landscapes in a changing climate. We draw attention to the fact that geopolitical concerns exist at other unstable border situations, such as ice-covered boundaries and lakes. We examine the knowledge gaps that exist in relation to understanding the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial earth systems. We present an exploratory analysis of physical and political risk in Southern Africa that highlights two cases of potential risk. The paper ends with a discussion of actions to address the physical and social dimensions of this strategic issue

Does the geographical footprint of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection programme align with climatic and conflict risks?

Ethiopia’s flagship ‘Productive Safety Net Programme’ (PSNP) entered its fifth phase of implementation in 2021. After more than fifteen years, the Government reoriented the programme’s targeting of woredas (districts) with a history of food insecurity, to prioritising those experiencing ‘extreme poverty through shocks’ – particularly drought. In doing so, it has rebranded the PSNP as an ‘adaptive’ safety net. The focus of the ‘adaptive social protection’ policy agenda, however, extends beyond responding to biophysical risks associated with climate variability and change; it also seeks to address non-climatic, contextual factors underpinning relational vulnerability to climate change. This study asks whether the PSNP’s system of geographic targeting at the start of its fifth phase aligns with this more comprehensive framing of ‘adaptive social protection’. Using binary logit regression analysis, it assesses whether the PSNP-covered woredas are those most exposed to three major risks in the country: drought, flooding, and political conflict. We find that, controlling for poverty headcount rate and population density, PSNP coverage is positively associated with districts experiencing higher year-to-year drought conditions, yet woredas with higher multi-year drought variability are less likely to be covered. We find no relationship between PSNP coverage and exposure to flood risk, which is unevenly distributed across the country. Whilst the programme is currently well-targeted toward districts facing disproportionately high levels of political insecurity, this association disappears if the recent escalation of conflict beginning in 2020 is disregarded. As such, this study points to risks that PSNP administrators need to be more attentive to as they consider expanding the programme’s geographical footprint to become more ‘adaptive’. Doing so could better support the strengthening of PSNP participants’ long-term resilience to climate change

Applications of interannual-to-decadal climate prediction: an exploratory discussion on rainfall in the Sahel Region of Africa

This perspective explores how climate services may potentially incorporate information emerging from the new science of interannual-to-decadal (I2D) climate prediction. The geographic focus is the Sahel region of West Africa, which has demonstrated prediction advances for rainfall on the I2D timescale, and vulnerability to climate hazards. The perspective draws on reviews of predictability and applications in the region and a national workshop in Sudan to explore applications. Decadal prediction is an emerging capability, to date being undertaken primarily as a learning process. However, for the multi-year forecast information, we identify a number of new dimensions that challenge product design and user uptake. Current experiments often present forecasts as the average conditions for a target first year, and then subsequent set of years raising a question of what a forecast of mean average conditions for years 2-5 represents in terms of climate to expect, and how annual updates to multi-year forecasts may be produced and communicated. Stakeholder consultations highlighted some of the concerns noted for existing seasonal forecasts, but now translated into terms for multi-year information, such as confidence in information, need for research on temporal downscaling (which may now include information on the risks of climate anomalies in the individual years that make up the forecast period), capacity development, and that communities would need to be convinced about effectiveness, alongside careful communication, especially in the context of multi-year planning. This perspective captures one of the first learning case studies on how I2D prediction may be explored in a given region, a first step towards climate services development that integrate I2D information

As Southern Africa faces new urban drought challenges, who is heeding the wake-up call?

As experts forecast the likelihood of El Nino in southern Africa over the next few months, Kate Gannon, Patrick Curran and Declan Conway examine the impact of drought-related water and electricity supply disruption on businesses in southern Africa during the 2015/16 El Niño

Invention and diffusion of water supply and water efficiency technologies: insights from a global patent dataset

This paper identifies over 50 000 patents filed worldwide in various water-related technologies between 1990 and 2010, distinguishing between those related to availability (supply) and conservation (demand) technologies. Patenting activity is analysed – including inventive activity by country and technology, international diffusion of such water-related technologies, and international collaboration in technology development. Three results stand out from our analysis. First, although inventive activity in water-related technologies has been increasing over the last two decades, this growth has been disproportionately concentrated on supply-side technologies. Second, whilst 80% of water-related invention worldwide occurs in countries with low or moderate water scarcity, several countries with absolute or chronic water scarcity are relatively specialized in water efficiency technologies. Finally, although we observe a positive correlation between water scarcity and local filings of water patents, some countries with high water availability, in particular Switzerland or Norway, nevertheless appear as significant markets for water-efficiency technologies. This suggests that drivers other than local demand, like regulation and social and cultural factors, play a role in explaining the global flows of technologies. And finally, the extent to which innovation is "internationalised" shows some distinct patterns relative to those observed for innovation in technologies in general

Water conservation can reduce future water-energy-food-environment trade-offs in a medium-sized African river basin

The need for achieving efficient and sustainable use of water resources is pressing, however, this often requires better understanding of the potential of water conservation, taking into account the impact on return flows, and the costs in relation to sectoral benefits. Using modelling and limited observational data we explore the costs and potential water savings of 24 combinations of water conservation measures in the Rufiji basin, Tanzania. We compare these costs with estimates of the value such water savings could generate from water use in three important economic sectors; agriculture, energy and downstream ecosystems with high tourism potential. The cost of water conservation measures (median: 0.07 USD m−3) is found to be: higher than the value of most uses of water for agriculture (growing crops in expanded irrigation sites) and the median value for hydropower generation (from a new mega dam currently under construction); and lower than the ecosystem value. Nevertheless, under our modelling assumptions, the volume of additional water required to supply planned irrigation expansion in the basin could be reduced by 1.5 BCM using water conservation methods that would be financially viable, given the value of competing uses of water. Water savings of this magnitude would reduce potential trade-offs between use of water for hydropower and ecosystem services, by allowing peak environmental flow releases even in dry years, and without reducing firm energy generation. This methodology is transferable and relevant for producing realistic assessments of the financial incentives for long-term sustainable water use in agriculture, given incentives for other uses. With most reservoirs now being built for multiple purposes improved understanding of trade-offs between different sectors and functions is needed

Tracing the water-energy-food nexus : description, theory and practice

The ‘nexus’ between water, energy and food (WEF) has gained increasing attention globally in research, business and policy spheres. We review the premise of recent initiatives framed around the nexus, examine the challenge of achieving the type of disciplinary boundary crossing promoted by the nexus agenda and consider how to operationalise what has to date been a largely paper exercise. The WEF nexus has been promoted through international meetings and calls for new research agendas. It is clear from the literature that many aims of nexus approaches pre-date the recent nexus agenda; these have encountered significant barriers to progress, including challenges to cross-disciplinary collaboration, complexity, political economy (often perceived to be under-represented in nexus research) and incompatibility of current institutional structures. Indeed, the ambitious aims of the nexus—the desire to capture multiple interdependencies across three major sectors, across disciplines and across scales—could become its downfall. However, greater recognition of interdependencies across state and non-state actors, more sophisticated modelling systems to assess and quantify WEF linkages and the sheer scale of WEF resource use globally, could create enough momentum to overcome historical barriers and establish nexus approaches as part of a wider repertoire of responses to global environmental change

From advocacy to action: projecting the health impacts of climate change

Mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions has many measurable co-benefits for public health and remains a priority (Haines et al., 2009). However, recognition that climate change is already underway has led to an increasing focus on adaptation. Studies projecting the impacts of future climate change on health date back to the late 1980s and their number has grown substantially in recent years. Climate change impact assessments generally use the output of global climate models (GCMs). Here we profile, and suggest means for addressing, challenges associated with the use of GCM projections and impact studies to inform adaptation

Perspectives on climate information use in the Caribbean

Within research on climate information for decision-making, localized insights on the influences of climate information use remain limited in small and low-income countries. This paper offers an empirical contribution on Caribbean perspectives of climate information use considering current barriers and enablers in the region. We employ thematic analysis of 26 semi-structured interviews with region-focused sectoral experts (including end-users and decision-makers) drawn from climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and resilience focused initiatives and institutions. The results reaffirm presence of known barriers, such as the crucial role of finance, but notably we identify a range of interlinked enabling and catalyzing conditions necessary for the effective use of climate information. These conditions include the need for island- and sector- contextualized climate information, the role of international donors, the importance of adequate human resource capacity and presence of loud voices/climate champions, as well as the need for effective political and legislative mandates and for greater co-production. We construct a visualization of respondents' understanding of influencing factor interrelationships. This shows how their heuristics of climate information use for decision-making intricately link with roles for proactive climate champions, and that available finance often reflects donor interests. We end by discussing how these insights can contribute to strategies for more effective climate information use to promote resilience within the region