Stopping the control arm in response to the DSMB: Mother's choice of HIV prophylaxis during breastfeeding in the BAN Study

The Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition study, a clinical trial aimed to prevent postnatal HIV transmission, recommended halting randomization to the enhanced standard-of-care (control) arm. The 67 mother-infant pairs on the control arm and less than 21 weeks postpartum at the time of the DSMB recommendation were read a script informing them of the DSMB decision and offering them the the maternal or infant antiretroviral interventions for the remainder of the 28-week breastfeeding period. This paper describes the BAN study response to the DSMB decision and what the women on the control arm chose, when given a choice to start the maternal or infant antiretroviral interventions

Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements Are Feasible As a Breastmilk Replacement for HIV-Exposed Infants from 24 to 48 Weeks of Age

The Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition (BAN) Study randomized HIV-infected mothers and their infants to receive either maternal lipid-based nutrient supplements (LNS) during lactation or no LNS and then to 1 of 3 antiretroviral drug (ARV) arms (maternal, infant, or no drugs). Assigned interventions were provided from 0 to 28 wk and all infants (n = 1619) were given LNS during (24–28 wk) and following (28–48 wk) weaning. This paper assesses the feasibility of infant LNS as a breastmilk replacement and uses longitudinal random effects models to examine associations of interventions, morbidity, and season with weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ), and BMI-for-age (BMIZ) Z-scores from 24 to 48 wk. Infant LNS adherence was high (94.1% ate it daily). From 24 to 48 wk, mean WAZ (−0.42 to −0.76 SD; P 0 throughout. A higher LAZ was associated with assignment to the maternal LNS arm (β=0.19; P < 0.05). Lower WAZ and BMIZ were associated with seasonal food insecurity (β=−0.08 and −0.09, respectively; both P < 0.001), fever (β=−0.07 and −0.13; both P < 0.001), diarrhea (β=−0.19 and −0.23; both P < 0.001), and assignment to the infant ARV arm (β=−0.17 and −0.17; both P < 0.05). The magnitude of the season and morbidity effects was small and BAN infants had higher weights and lengths than their counterparts in the general population. High LNS adherence and the modest impact of morbidity on growth indicate that LNS is a feasible breastmilk replacement for HIV-exposed infants weaned early, but controlled trials are needed to quantify the effects of LNS on growth in this population

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effect of cytomegalovirus infection on breastfeeding transmission of HIV and on the health of infants born to HIV-infected mothers

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection can be acquired in utero or postnatally through horizontal transmission and breastfeeding. The effect of postnatal CMV infection on postnatal HIV transmission is unknown

Evaluating Nurses' Implementation of an Infant-Feeding Counseling Protocol for HIV-Infected Mothers: The Ban Study in Lilongwe, Malawi

A process evaluation of nurses’ implementation of an infant-feeding counseling protocol was conducted for the Breastfeeding, Antiretroviral and Nutrition (BAN) Study, a prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV clinical trial in Lilongwe, Malawi. Six trained nurses counseled HIV-infected mothers to exclusively breastfeed for 24 weeks postpartum and to stop breastfeeding within an additional four weeks. Implementation data were collected via direct observations of 123 infant feeding counseling sessions (30 antenatal and 93 postnatal) and interviews with each nurse. Analysis included calculating a percent adherence to checklists and conducting a content analysis for the observation and interview data. Nurses were implementing the protocol at an average adherence level of 90% or above. Although not detailed in the protocol, nurses appropriately counseled mothers on their actual or intended formula milk usage after weaning. Results indicate that nurses implemented the protocol as designed. Results will help to interpret the BAN Study’s outcomes

Adherence to extended postpartum antiretrovirals is associated with decreased breast milk HIV-1 transmission

Estimate association between postpartum antiretroviral adherence and breastmilk HIV-1 transmissio

Plasma Micronutrient Concentrations Are Altered by Antiretroviral Therapy and Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements in Lactating HIV-Infected Malawian Women

Background: Little is known about the influence of antiretroviral therapy with or without micronutrient supplementation on the micronutrient concentrations of HIV-infected lactating women in resource-constrained settings

Stopping the control arm in response to the DSMB: Mother's choice of HIV prophylaxis during breastfeeding in the BAN Study

The Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition study, a clinical trial aimed to prevent postnatal HIV transmission, recommended halting randomization to the enhanced standard-of-care (control) arm. The 67 mother-infant pairs on the control arm and less than 21 weeks postpartum at the time of the DSMB recommendation were read a script informing them of the DSMB decision and offering them the the maternal or infant antiretroviral interventions for the remainder of the 28-week breastfeeding period. This paper describes the BAN study response to the DSMB decision and what the women on the control arm chose, when given a choice to start the maternal or infant antiretroviral interventions

Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements Are Feasible As a Breastmilk Replacement for HIV-Exposed Infants from 24 to 48 Weeks of Age

The Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition (BAN) Study randomized HIV-infected mothers and their infants to receive either maternal lipid-based nutrient supplements (LNS) during lactation or no LNS and then to 1 of 3 antiretroviral drug (ARV) arms (maternal, infant, or no drugs). Assigned interventions were provided from 0 to 28 wk and all infants (n = 1619) were given LNS during (24–28 wk) and following (28–48 wk) weaning. This paper assesses the feasibility of infant LNS as a breastmilk replacement and uses longitudinal random effects models to examine associations of interventions, morbidity, and season with weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ), and BMI-for-age (BMIZ) Z-scores from 24 to 48 wk. Infant LNS adherence was high (94.1% ate it daily). From 24 to 48 wk, mean WAZ (−0.42 to −0.76 SD; P < 0.001) and LAZ (−0.93 to −1.56 SD; P < 0.001) steadily declined, whereas BMIZ remained >0 throughout. A higher LAZ was associated with assignment to the maternal LNS arm (β=0.19; P < 0.05). Lower WAZ and BMIZ were associated with seasonal food insecurity (β=−0.08 and −0.09, respectively; both P < 0.001), fever (β=−0.07 and −0.13; both P < 0.001), diarrhea (β=−0.19 and −0.23; both P < 0.001), and assignment to the infant ARV arm (β=−0.17 and −0.17; both P < 0.05). The magnitude of the season and morbidity effects was small and BAN infants had higher weights and lengths than their counterparts in the general population. High LNS adherence and the modest impact of morbidity on growth indicate that LNS is a feasible breastmilk replacement for HIV-exposed infants weaned early, but controlled trials are needed to quantify the effects of LNS on growth in this population