Interrelations among child mortality, breastfeeding, and fertility in Egypt, 1975-80

This report examines the relationship between reproductive behavior and child survivalin Egypt. The relationship is of fundamental importance to an understanding of demographic dynamics and for the formulation of population policies. Using Egyptian data from 1975-80, it was found that weaning children in infancy increases ths risk of death for children under five. Early weaning is responsible for up to 29 percent of Egyptian children's deaths. Children whose mothers become pregnant again are more likely to die if the pregnancy begins while the child is still an infant. Ending breastfeeding is responsible for up to 41 percent of pregnancies - 52 percent among women who do not use contraceptives. Breastfeeding lasts an average of 17 to 18 months in Egypt, so policy probably should not encourage all women to breastfeed longer, but women who breastfeed for only short periods should probably be encouraged to breastfeed longer. Parents should be encouraged to be more careful about childcare and children's diet and hygiene after weaning. An important feature of this analysis is that fertility was examined simultaneously with child survival and breastfeeding, as three components of a system. The analysis involved regression models for the hazard, or risk, of three events occurring after a live birth: another pregnancy, weaning, or the death of the child.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Early Child and Children's Health,Adolescent Health,Gender and Health,Reproductive Health

Inter-relations between Political and Demographic Change in the 20th Century

Research project funded in academic year 2008-09The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.Global demographic change since 1950 has been the most rapid in human history. Fertility rates in the most populous regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America have fallen to half and mortality rates have fallen to a quarter of their post-World War II levels. In this project, Casterline is undertaking a comprehensive study of the relationship between political factors and demographic dynamics across all major countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America from 1950 to 2000.Mershon Center for International Security StudiesProject summar

Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women

Despite extensive research, doubts remain regarding the degree of correspondence between prior stated fertility preferences and subsequent fertility behavior. Preference instability is a factor that potentially undermines predictiveness. Furthermore, if other predictors of fertility substantially explain fertility, then knowledge of preferences may contribute little to explaining or predicting individual fertility behavior. In this study, we examined these aspects of the study of individual fertility preference-behavior consistency. Using a prospective multi-wave panel dataset, we modeled the monthly likelihood of conception, taking into account the dynamic nature of preferences, and controlling for changing reproductive life cycle factors and stable socioeconomic background predictors of fertility. We demonstrate from a sample of fecund married Ghanaian women that fertility preferences retain independent predictive power in the model predicting the likelihood of conception.fertility, fertility intentions, fertility preference, Ghana, Sub-Saharan Africa

Demographic Change in the Arab Region and Its Sociopolitical Implications

Streaming audio requires RealPlayer.The University Archives has determined that this item is of continuing value to OSU's history.John Casterline is Senior Associate, Policy Research Division of the Population Council and has held positions at Brown University (1988-94) and the World Fertility Survey in London, U.K. Most of his research focuses on reproductive behavior, recently with a focus on diffusion models of fertility change, the causes of unmet need for family planning, and demographic transition in the Arab region. He has conducted research in the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, and Ghana. He currently serves on the Governing Council of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP] and the Specialist Panel on Social Science and Operations Research in Reproductive Health, WHO Strategic Programme Component on Social Sciences Research on Reproductive Health. He previously served on the IUSSP Committee on the Comparative Analysis of Fertility (1991-95), the Committee on Population of the National Academy of Sciences (1991-97), the Social Sciences and Population Study Section of the NIH (1991-95), Chair of the Publications Committee of the Population Association of America, and theOhio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent webpage, streaming audi

The Onset of Fertility Transition in Pakistan

In a Comment published in the Autumn 2000 issue of this journal, Mr Ghulam Soomro1 takes issue with our recent article in Population and Development Review.2 Although Mr Soomro is highly critical of our article, we are pleased that he has read the article carefully and made the effort to write an extended comment. We are not prepared, however, to concede the major points in that Comment. Two major points are made by him. First, that marital fertility decline is a small component of the recent fertility decline in Pakistan, which has been mainly due to postponement of entry to first marriage. Second, that the underlying motivation for fertility change in the 1990s has been economic distress, a consequence in part of the structural adjustment programmes instituted in the late 1980s. However, in the first point, Soomro interprets the demographic data from the past three decades incorrectly and, in the second point, he misrepresents our argument

Trends in the timing of first marriage among men and women in the developing world [Arabic]

The timing of first union merits investigation not only because of the close temporal link between marriage and the onset of childbearing, but also because the age when men and women marry has implications for the organization of family life and for gender relations within society. This paper begins by reviewing the contributions of various social science disciplines to an understanding of the timing of marriage. Using current status data from 73 countries provided by the United Nations Population Division and retrospective data from 52 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1990 and 2001, we then examine recent trends in the timing of first marriage or union for men and women in the developing world. With the exception of South America for both sexes and South and Southeast Asia for men, substantial declines have occurred in the proportion of young men and women who are married. Given the differentials in the timing of marriage by educational attainment and residence, we assess whether the decline in the proportion of young people who are married is related to increases in schooling and urbanization. Expansion of schooling for women has had some impact, but a considerable portion of the reduction in early marriage is not explained by changes in levels of education. We consider other factors that might account for the increase in age at marriage. Finally, we review what is known about the consequences of changing age at marriage with a particular focus on risk of HIV infection

Extramarital fertility in low- and middle-income countries

Background: In most societies, childbearing is largely confined to women in formal marital unions, but in a subset of contemporary low-fertility Western societies, extramarital fertility has become common. However, extramarital fertility is often ignored in fertility research in contemporary low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Objective: To document recent levels, trends, and differentials in extramarital fertility (both premarital and postmarital) in LMICs. Methods: We employ Schoumaker's (2013) Stata program tfr2 to calculate two fertility measures from Demographic and Health Surveys in 63 countries: (1) the standard total fertility rate (TFR), which is based on all births in the three years before the survey date, and (2) the marital total fertility rate (MTFR), which is based on all births within marital unions in the three years before the survey date. The percentage of fertility that is extramarital (PEM) is estimated as 100 x (TFR-MTFR)/TFR. Results: The unweighted average PEM for the most recent surveys in the 63 DHS countries equals 11.3Š, with 7.9Š premarital and 3.4Š postmarital. By far the highest percentage premarital is found in southern Africa (43Š) and the lowest in Asia/North Africa (0.9Š). Postmarital fertility is most common in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Conclusions: Childbearing outside of marriage is an important feature of contemporary reproductive regimes in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. By contrast, less than 2Š of births are extramarital in most Asian and North African societies. Contribution: Extramarital fertility has social and economic consequences - for women, for their households, and for their children. We estimate, for the first time, the levels, trends, and differentials in both categories (premarital and postmarital) of extramarital fertility in LMICs

The onset of fertility transition in Pakistan

Recent trends in fertility and contraceptive prevalence indicate that the marital fertility transition in Pakistan, which has been anticipated for three decades, has begun in the 1990s. Before that decade, the total fertility rate had exceeded 6 births per woman for at least three decades, and fewer than 10 percent of married women practiced contraception. The most recent survey data, collected in 1996- 97, show a total fertility rate of 5.3 births per woman and a contraceptive prevalence rate of 24 percent. Underlying this development are macroeconomic trends that have led to widespread economic distress at the household level, and social changes that have diluted the influence of extended kin and resulted in greater husband-wife convergence in reproductive decisionmaking. The more-direct causes of declining fertility are a crystallization of existing desires for smaller families along with a decline in family size desires and a reduction in the social, cultural, and psychic costs of contraception. Improvements in family planning services (their density and quality) have contributed little to the onset of fertility decline but could be decisive in sustaining the decline over the next decade. Other obstacles to contraceptive use, including fear of health side effects and perceptions that husbands are opposed, must also be undermined in order for contraceptive practice to become more widespread and the decline in fertility to continue. Over the long term, progression to replacement-level fertility will require a substantial decline in the demand for children