Intergenerational Persistence of Earnings: The Role of Early and College Education

Recent empirical studies show that the intergenerational persistence of economic status in the U.S. is much higher than previously thought. We develop a quantitative theory of inequality and intergenerational transmission of human capital where parents invest in early and college education of their children subject to borrowing constraints. Children differ exogenously in innate abilities, which can be correlated with their parent s innate ability. An important feature of the environment is that the quality of early education determines the probability of college completion. We calibrate a stationary equilibrium of this economy to relevant statistics in aggregate U.S. data, and use it to investigate the sources of inequality and persistence in earnings. In our benchmark model, about half of the intergenerational persistence and one fourth of the inequality in earnings are accounted for by endogenous investments in education. We find that early investments in education account for most of the endogenous persistence in earnings, while college education generates most of the endogenous inequality in earnings. Our theory is suited to study the effect of educational policies on the persistence of inequality. We show that public resources devoted to early education have the largest impact on earnings mobility. Moreover, non-progressive college subsidies generate more intergenerational persistence of earnings.Human Capital, Education, Intergenerational Mobility, Ability.

Social Security Reform with Uninsurable Income Risk and Endogenous Borrowing Constraints

We study the aggregate effects of a social security reform in a large overlapping generations model where markets are incomplete and households face uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. We depart from the previous literature by assuming that, because of lack of commitment in the credit market, the borrowing constraint in the unique asset is endogenously determined by the agents' incentives to default on previous debts. We find that a model with exogenous borrowing constraints overestimates the positive e¤ect of reforming social security on the capital stock and the saving rate, compared to our model with endogenous borrowing limit. The reason is that, in the latter, the size of precautionary savings is smaller because after the reform the incentives to default on previous debts are lower and consequently households face more relaxed borrowing limits. Adding retirement accounts to the basic model does not change these conclusions, although the quantitative importance of endogenizing borrowing constraints is reduced.Social Security, Borrowing Constraints, Incomplete Marrkets, Income Risk

Great Appreciations: Accounting for the Real Exchange Rate in Mexico, 1988-2002

Between 1988 and 2002, the real exchange rate in Mexico appreciated by 45%. We account for this movement in relative prices using a two sector, dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with tradable an non-tradable goods. The model allows us to identify the effect of the differential in productivity growth across sectors (the Balassa-Samuelson effect) from other types of shocks affecting the allocation of resources (terms of trade, migration remittances and international reserves accumulation). We find that productivity growth in the tradable sector and a decline in the real interest rate faced by Mexico in the international markets account for 70% of the real exchange rate appreciation. Our model is also consistent with the reallocation of capital and labor from tradable to non-tradable sectors. None of our results support a significant role for terms of trade, migration remittances or international reserves accumulation.

Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies

We build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative version of the model calibrated to the Mexican economy we find that reducing separation costs to a level consistent with developed economies would reduce output volatility by 15 percent. We also use the model to analyze the Mexican crisis episode of 2008 and conclude that an economy with lower separation costs would have experienced a smaller drop in output and in measured total factor productivity with no significant change in aggregate employment.

Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994

We build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1989 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) an increase in the debt burden, (ii) an increase in exports, and (iii) a large decline in investment. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.Devaluation, Investment, Exports, Balance Sheet Effects

Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994

We build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1989 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) an increase in the debt burden, (ii) an increase in exports, and (iii) a large decline in investment. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.

Social Security Reform with Uninsurable Income Risk and Endogenous Borrowing Constraints

We study the aggregate effects of a social security reform in a large overlapping generations model where markets are incomplete and households face uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. We depart from the previous literature by assuming that, because of lack of commitment in the credit market, the borrowing constraint in the unique asset is endogenously determined by the agents' incentives to default on previous debts. We find that a model with exogenous borrowing constraints overestimates the positive effect of reforming social security on the capital stock and the saving rate, compared to our model with endogenous borrowing limit. The reason is that, in the latter, the size of precautionary savings is smaller because after the reform the incentives to default on previous debts are lower and consequently households face more relaxed borrowing limits. Adding retirement accounts to the basic model does not change these conclusions, although the quantitative importance of endogenizing borrowing constraints is reduced.

Evolution of the Distribution of Assets in the Neoclassical Growth Model

We study the evolution of the distribution of assets in a deterministic version of the Neoclassical Growth Model with log-utility, a minimum consumption requirement, and Cobb-Douglas technology. Agents are heterogeneous in their initial endowment of assets only. The dynamics of the aggregate variables behaves as in a standard representative agent model. We prove that the disparity in assets decreases monotonically in a transition to the steady state from below, as long as (i) the minimum consumption requirement is zero or negative, or (ii) the consumption requirement is positive but not too large and the initial capital stock is large enough. This result is not based on a local approximation of the model around the steady state, nor on numerical computations, as it has been the case in previous literature. We also show how a positive minimum consumption requirement or a small elasticity of substitution between capital and labor can generate non-monotonic paths for the disparity in assets along a transition. Our work extends the result in Chatterjee (1994) on the evolution of the distribution of lifetime wealth (or consumption) to the evolution of the distribution of assets (or capital).