AGENDA: A NEW TOOL FOR SUSTAINABLE FARM MANAGEMENT, INTEGRATED IN THE AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY OF THE EU

AGeNDA is an Italian acronym which stands for Analysis and Integrated Management of the Farm (Analisi e GEstione iNtegrata Dell'Azienda agraria). It denominates a new software developed by a research project carried out at the Department of Agronomy, Environment and Crop Production (DAAPV, University of Padova) in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency of the Veneto Region (ARPAV). Although developed from scratch, the software originates from a past joint research carried out by the two above mentioned institutions in collaboration with the Department of Agricultural Economics and the Center for Farm Financial Management (CFFM) of the University of Minnesota. The joint research started in the early 1990's, focussing on the Planetor software and, in particular, on the evaluation of its potentials for Italy and the development of an Italian version. The source codes and the elaboration procedures of the old and new software tools have nothing in common. Nevertheless, the methodological approach of the two tools is very similar and so is the input structure of the databases. AGeNDA, in fact adopts an approach similar to that of the previous software in utilising an extensive knowledge base about the environment and the production processes (crops and livestock) saved on databases, which are browsed (and edited if required) at the moment of the practical on farm implementation. The paper presents the results, current activities and future prospects of the AGeNDA Project, with the aim of informing the Italian - American group and stimulating possible new collaborations in the future.Farm management, Agri-environmental policy, Software, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,

Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

The substitution of hazardous molecules in production processes: The Atrazine case study in Italian agriculture

This paper summarises the results of the Sphere+ Project (Substitution Projects for Health and Environment, Lessons from Results and Experiences) and in particular the outcomes of FEEM's contribution in the field of substituting hazardous molecules used to control weeds to preserve the quality of water resources. The story of the study case started in Italy, in the mid 80's, with the introduction of the EC Directive 80/778 concerning drinking water. The acceptable limits for pesticide concentrations were so low that most of the groundwater sources for northern Italian towns' aqueducts became unsuitable for human consumption, quite often because of high concentrations of the herbicide Atrazine (commonly used for maize cultivation). This paper examines the story of the substitution of Atrazine with alternatives that have a lower environmental impact, focussing in particular on the comparison between end users' and institutional perspectives, policy implications, the relationship between communication and political strategies and the research sector

Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS

A Participatory Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Responses to Cope With Flood Risk

This work illustrates the preliminary findings of a participatory research process aimed at identifying responses for sustainable water management in a climate change perspective, in two river basins in Europe and Asia. The paper describes the methodology implemented through local workshops, aimed at eliciting and evaluating possible responses to flood risk. Participatory workshops allowed for the identification of four categories of possible responses and a set of nine evaluation criteria, three for each of the three pillars of sustainable development. The main outcome of such activities consists in the ranking of broad response categories instrumental to the objective of the Brahmatwinn research project, i.e. the identification of Integrated Water Resource Management Strategies (IWRMS) based upon the issues and preferences elicited from local experts. The mDSS tool was used to facilitate transparent and robust management of the information collected through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and communication of the outputs.Participatory Process, Climate Change, Flood Risk, Decision Support System, Multi Criteria Analysis, MCA, Eliciting Responses, Evaluating Responses, Integrated Water Resources Management, IWRM, Mulino Decision Support System, mDSS

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Water Resources Management: A DSS Tool and a Pilot Study Application

Decision making for the management of water resources is a complex and difficult task. This is due to the complex socio-economic system that involves a large number of interest groups pursuing multiple and conflicting objectives, within an often intricate legislative framework. Several Decision Support Systems have been developed but very few have indeed proved to be effective and truly operational. MULINO (Multisectoral, Integrated and Operational Decision Support System for Sustainable Use of Water Resources at the Catchment Scale) is a project funded under the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Research and the key action line dedicated to operational management schemes and decision support system for sustainable use of water resources. The MULINO DSS (mDSS) integrates hydrological models with multi-criteria decision methods and adopts the DPSIR (Driving Force – Pressure – State – Impact – Response) framework developed by the European Environment Agency. The DPSIR was converted from a static reporting scheme into a dynamic framework for integrated assessment modelling (IAM) and multi-criteria evaluation procedures. This paper presents the methodological framework and the intermediate results of the mDSS tool through its application in a pilot study area located in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice.Integrated water resources management, Spatial decision-making, Decision support system, Catchment, Environmental modelling

A participatory approach for assessing alternative climate change adaptation responses to cope with flooding risk in the upper Brahmaputra and Danube river basins

This work illustrates the preliminary findings of a participatory research process aimed at identifying responses for sustainable water management in a climate change perspective, in two river basins in Europe and Asia. The paper describes the methodology implemented through local workshops, aimed at eliciting and evaluating possible responses to flooding risk. Participatory workshops allowed for the identification of four categories of possible responses and a set of nine evaluation criteria, three for each of the three pillars of sustainable development. The main result of such activities consists in the ranking of broad response categories, to contribute to the orientation of the Brahmatwinn research project towards the identification of Integrated Water Resource Management Strategies (IWRMS) well grounded upon the issues and preferences elicited from local experts. The mDSS tool was used to facilitate transparent and robust management of the information collected through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and the communication of the outputs.Participatory process, Climate Change, Flooding Risk, Decision Support System, MCDA

Participatory Approach in Decision Making Processes for Water Resources Management in the Mediterranean Basin

This paper deals with the comparative analysis of different policy options for water resources management in three south-eastern Mediterranean countries. The applied methodology follows a participatory approach throughout its implementation and is supported by the use of three different software packages dealing with water allocation budget, water quality simulation, and Multi Criteria Analysis, respectively. The paper briefly describes the general objectives of the SMART project and then presents the three local case studies, the valuation objectives and the applied methodology - developed as a general replicable framework suitable for implementation in other decision-making processes. All the steps needed for a correct implementation are therefore described. Following the conceptualisation of the problem, the choice of the appropriate indicators as well as the calculation of their weighting and value functions are detailed. The paper concludes with the results of the Multi Criteria and the related Sensitivity Analyses performed, showing how the different policy responses under consideration can be assessed and furthermore compared through case studies thanks to their relative performances. The adopted methodology was found to be an effective operational approach for bridging scientific modelling and policy making by integrating the model outputs in a conceptual framework that can be understood and utilised by non experts, thus showing concrete potential for participatory decision making.Scientific Advice, Policy-Making, Participatory Modelling, Decision Support