Trade and Turnover: Theory and Evidence

Is the pattern of trade correlated with cross-sector differences in job turnover? Theoretically, external shocks feed through to changes in domestic employment and cross-sector differences in turnover give rise to compensating wage differentials, which feed through to output prices. Using two different data sets on turnover, we find strong evidence that normalized US net exports by sector are negatively correlated with job destruction and worker separation rates. Weaker evidence suggests a positive correlation with between normalized net exports and job acquisition. Using sector-specific job destruction data for both Canada and the US, we find confirmation of the theoretical prediction that normalized net exports to Canada are negatively related to the ratio of the US job destruction rate to the Canadian job destruction rate.Job Creation, Job Destruction, Trade, Labor

Wage-Rate Subsidies for Dislocated Workers

An array of innovative policies has been suggested to address more effectively the needs of dislocated workers. In this paper, we model and simulate the impacts of a wage-rate subsidy (or salary supplement) program in which a dislocated worker who becomes reemployed would receive a payment equal to one-half the difference between the wage previously earned and the wage currently earned. The simulations are based on a search model that is institutionally rich and that provides estimates of the impacts of a wage subsidy by incorporating empirical results from the reemployment bonus experiments that were conducted in the mid- to late-1980s. The model includes several groups of workers other than dislocated workers and therefore provides estimates of the degree to which these other workers might be crowded out of jobs by the wage subsidy program. The results suggest that a wage-rate subsidy paid for two years after reemployment would shorten the unemployment spells of dislocated workers by nearly 2 weeks, and would increase employment of dislocated workers by about 900 to 1000 per 100,000 in the labor force. But the simulations also raise the possibility that the gains for dislocated workers could come at the expense of other groups of workers; that is, other groups of workers could experience small increases in unemployment duration, and decreases in employment levels that almost fully offset the gains for dislocated workers. Three factors may mitigate these crowding-out results crowding out is widely dispersed over various groups of non-dislocated workers, the structural changes that result in dislocation of some workers (and drive the need for a policy like a wage subsidy) benefit non-dislocated workers, and the crowding-out results are quite sensitive to one of our assumptions. We also compare the wage-rate subsidy program with a reemployment bonus, and show that the two can be structured so as to give identical results.dislocated, displaced, workers, wage, subsidies, Davidson, Woodbury

The Optimal Dole with Risk Aversion, Job Destruction, and Worker Heterogeneity

This paper extends earlier research on optimal unemployment insurance (UI) by developing an equilibrium search model that encompasses simultaneously several theoretical and institutional features that have been treated one-by-one (or not at all) in previous discussions of optimal UI. In particular, the model we develop allows us to determine the optimal potential duration of UI benefits as well as the optimal UI benefit amount; assumes (realistically) that not all workers are eligible for UI benefits; allows examination of various degrees of risk aversion by workers; models labor demand so that the job destruction effects of UI are taken into account; and treats workers as heterogeneous. The model suggests that the current statutory replacement rate of 50 percent provided by most states in the United States is close to optimal, but that the current potential duration of benefits (which is usually 26 weeks) is probably too short. This basic result--that the optimal UI system is characterized by a fairly low replacement rate and a long potential duration-- conflicts with most of the existing literature on optimal UI. We argue, however, that the result is consistent with a large literature on optimal insurance contracts in the presence of moral hazard.unemployment insurance, job destruction, Davidson, Woodbury

Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment: Implications of the Reemployment Bonus Experiments

We translate the results of the three reemployment bonus experiments that were conducted during the 1980s into (a) impacts of a 10-percentage point increase in the Unemployment Insurance (UI) replacement rate on the expected duration of unemployment; and (b) impacts of adding 1 week to the potential duration of UI benefits on the expected duration of unemployment. Our approach is to use an equilibrium search and matching model, calibrated using data from the bonus experiments and secondary sources. The results suggest that a 10-percentage point increase in the UI replacement rate increases the expected duration of unemployment by .3 to 1.1 week (a range consistent with, but only somewhat narrower than, the existing range of estimates), and that adding 1 week to the potential duration of UI benefits increases the expected duration of unemployment by .05 to .2 week (which is toward the low end of existing estimates).unemployment, insurance, bonus, experiments, Davidson, Woodbury

Recent Developments in the Theory of Involuntary Unemployment

This monograph provides a relatively nontechnical summary of the prominent theories of unemployment that have emerged since 1960: search, disequilibrium, implicit contracts, efficiency wage, and insider/outsider models. Davidson focuses on the overall purpose of each line of research, reviewing selected articles on each of the theories. He then offers clear descriptions that make the topics readily accessible to both students and nonspecialists.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1098/thumbnail.jp

Globalization and Imperfect Labor Market Sorting

This paper focuses on the ability of the labor market to correctly match heterogeneous workers to jobs within a given industry and the role that globalization plays in that process. Using matched worker-firm data from Sweden, we find strong evidence that openness improves the matching between workers and firms in export-oriented industries. This suggests that there may be significant gains from globalization that have not been identified in the past – globalization may improve the efficiency of the matching process in the labor market. On the other hand, we find no evidence that openness affects the degree of matching in import-competing industries. These results remain unchanged after adding controls for technical change at the industry level or measures of domestic anti-competitive regulations and product market competition. In addition, we find no evidence that technical change has any impact on the degree of matching at the industry level. Our results are also robust to alternative measures of the degree of matching, openness, or the trade status of an industry.Matching, Globalization, Firms, Workers, Multinational Enterprises, International Trade