Financial innovation and monetary policy effectiveness

Monetary policy - United States ; Money supply

Banking and securities and insurance: economists' views of the synergies - summary of presentations

Financial services industry ; Bank supervision

The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications

The market for high yield (below investment-grade) corporate bonds developed in the middle 1980s. We show that, since this time, the high yield spread has had significant explanatory power for the business cycle. We interpret this finding as possibly symptomatic of financial factors at work in the business cycle, along the lines suggested by the financial accelerator. We also show that over this period the high yield spread outperforms other leading financial indicators, including the term spread, the paper-bill spread and the Federal Funds rate. We conjecture that changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time may account for the reduced informativeness of these alternative indicators, all of which are tied closely to monetary policy.

The Credit Crunch

macroeconomics, credit crunch

Another look at the credit-output link

Credit ; Monetary policy

Credit effects in the monetary mechanism

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionCredit ; Monetary policy

The capital gains and losses on U. S. government debt: 1942-1986

Deficit financing ; Government securities

Are reserve requirement changes really exogenous? An example of regulatory accommodation of industry goals

Bank reserves

Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output

Over most of the last thirty-three years, the Federal Reserve has polled a small number of bank loan officers about their moves to tighten or ease commercial credit standards. Although the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey uses a small sample and gathers only qualitative information, it proves to be a useful tool in predicting changes in commercial lending and output. The authors find a strong correlation between tighter credit standards and slower loan growth and output, even after controlling for credit demand and other predictors of lending and output. The analysis also shows that the loan officer reports can help predict narrower measures of business activity, including inventory investment and industrial production.Bank loans ; Business cycles ; Forecasting

The changing landscape of the financial services industry: what lies ahead?

Financial services industry ; Bank mergers