The effects of climate change on tropical birds

Journal ArticleBirds are among the most widely studied organisms on earth and represent an important indicator group for learning about the effects of climate change - particularly in regard to the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems. In this review, we assess the potential impacts of climate change on tropical birds and discuss the factors that affect species' ability to adapt and survive the impending alterations in habitat availability. Tropical mountain birds, species without access to higher elevations, coastal forest birds, and restricted-range species are especially vulnerable. Some birds may be especially susceptible to increased rainfall seasonality and to extreme weather events, such as heat waves, cold spells, and tropical cyclones. Birds that experience limited temperature variation and have low basal metabolic rates will be the most prone to the physiological effects of warming temperatures and heat waves. Mostly unknown species' interactions, indirect effects, and synergies of climate change with other threats, such as habitat loss, emerging diseases, invasive species, and hunting will exacerbate the effects of climate change on tropical birds. In some models habitat loss can increase bird extinctions caused by climate change by 50%. 3.5 C surface warming by the year 2100 may result in 600-900 extinctions of land bird species, 89% of which occur in the tropics. Depending on the amount of future habitat loss, each degree of surface warming could lead to approximately 100-500 additional bird extinctions. Protected areas will be more important than ever, but they need to be designed with climate change in mind. Although 92% of currently protected areas are likely to become climatically unsuitable in a century, for example only 7 or 8 priority species' preferred climatic envelopes are projected to be entirely lost from the African Important Bird Area network. Networks of protected areas need to incorporate extensive topographical diversity, cover wide elevational ranges, have high connectivity, and integrate human-dominated landscapes into conservation schemes. Most tropical bird species vulnerable to climate change are not currently considered threatened with extinction, often due to lack of knowledge; systematically and regularly gathering information on the ecology, and current and future distributions of these species is an urgent priority. Locally based, long-term tropical bird monitoring and conservation programs based on adaptive management are essential to help protect birds against climate change

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Copyright © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal SocietyGeographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.Australian Research CouncilIntegrated Program of IC&DTFCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Computer Simulation of Cellular Patterning Within the Drosophila Pupal Eye

We present a computer simulation and associated experimental validation of assembly of glial-like support cells into the interweaving hexagonal lattice that spans the Drosophila pupal eye. This process of cell movements organizes the ommatidial array into a functional pattern. Unlike earlier simulations that focused on the arrangements of cells within individual ommatidia, here we examine the local movements that lead to large-scale organization of the emerging eye field. Simulations based on our experimental observations of cell adhesion, cell death, and cell movement successfully patterned a tracing of an emerging wild-type pupal eye. Surprisingly, altering cell adhesion had only a mild effect on patterning, contradicting our previous hypothesis that the patterning was primarily the result of preferential adhesion between IRM-class surface proteins. Instead, our simulations highlighted the importance of programmed cell death (PCD) as well as a previously unappreciated variable: the expansion of cells' apical surface areas, which promoted rearrangement of neighboring cells. We tested this prediction experimentally by preventing expansion in the apical area of individual cells: patterning was disrupted in a manner predicted by our simulations. Our work demonstrates the value of combining computer simulation with in vivo experiments to uncover novel mechanisms that are perpetuated throughout the eye field. It also demonstrates the utility of the Glazier–Graner–Hogeweg model (GGH) for modeling the links between local cellular interactions and emergent properties of developing epithelia as well as predicting unanticipated results in vivo

Conserved and divergent functions of Drosophila atonal , amphibian, and mammalian Ath5 genes

Insect and vertebrate eyes differ in their formation, cellular composition, neural connectivity, and visual function. Despite this diversity, Drosophila atonal and its vertebrate Ortholog in the eye, Ath5 , each regulate determination of the first retinal neuron class—R8 photo-receptors and retinal ganglion cells (RGCs)—in their respective organisms. We have performed a cross-species functional comparison of these genes. In ato 1 mutant Drosophila , ectopic Xenopus Ath5 ( Xath5 ) rescues photoreceptor cell development comparably with atonal . In contrast, mouse Ath5 ( Math5 ) induces formation of very few ommatidia, and most of these lack R8 cells. In the developing frog eye, ectopic atonal , like Xath5 , promotes the differentiation RGCs. Despite strong conservation of atonal , Xath5 , and Math5 structure and shared function, other factors must contribute to the species specificity of retinal neuron determination. These observations suggest that the atonal family may occupy a position in a gene hierarchy where differences in gene regulation or function can be correlated with evolutionary diversity of eye development.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72909/1/j.1525-142X.2003.03058.x.pd

Modeling Disease Severity in Multiple Sclerosis Using Electronic Health Records

Objective: To optimally leverage the scalability and unique features of the electronic health records (EHR) for research that would ultimately improve patient care, we need to accurately identify patients and extract clinically meaningful measures. Using multiple sclerosis (MS) as a proof of principle, we showcased how to leverage routinely collected EHR data to identify patients with a complex neurological disorder and derive an important surrogate measure of disease severity heretofore only available in research settings. Methods: In a cross-sectional observational study, 5,495 MS patients were identified from the EHR systems of two major referral hospitals using an algorithm that includes codified and narrative information extracted using natural language processing. In the subset of patients who receive neurological care at a MS Center where disease measures have been collected, we used routinely collected EHR data to extract two aggregate indicators of MS severity of clinical relevance multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF, a measure of whole brain volume). Results: The EHR algorithm that identifies MS patients has an area under the curve of 0.958, 83% sensitivity, 92% positive predictive value, and 89% negative predictive value when a 95% specificity threshold is used. The correlation between EHR-derived and true MSSS has a mean R[superscript 2] = 0.38±0.05, and that between EHR-derived and true BPF has a mean R[superscript 2] = 0.22±0.08. To illustrate its clinical relevance, derived MSSS captures the expected difference in disease severity between relapsing-remitting and progressive MS patients after adjusting for sex, age of symptom onset and disease duration (p = 1.56×10[superscript −12]). Conclusion: Incorporation of sophisticated codified and narrative EHR data accurately identifies MS patients and provides estimation of a well-accepted indicator of MS severity that is widely used in research settings but not part of the routine medical records. Similar approaches could be applied to other complex neurological disorders.National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (NIH U54-LM008748

The Worldwide Variation in Avian Clutch Size across Species and Space

Traits such as clutch size vary markedly across species and environmental gradients but have usually been investigated from either a comparative or a geographic perspective, respectively. We analyzed the global variation in clutch size across 5,290 bird species, excluding brood parasites and pelagic species. We integrated intrinsic (morphological, behavioural), extrinsic (environmental), and phylogenetic effects in a combined model that predicts up to 68% of the interspecific variation in clutch size. We then applied the same species-level model to predict mean clutch size across 2,521 assemblages worldwide and found that it explains the observed eco-geographic pattern very well. Clutches are consistently largest in cavity nesters and in species occupying seasonal environments, highlighting the importance of offspring and adult mortality that is jointly expressed in intrinsic and extrinsic correlates. The findings offer a conceptual bridge between macroecology and comparative biology and provide a global and integrative understanding of the eco-geographic and cross-species variation in a core life-history trait

The Worldwide Variation in Avian Clutch Size across Species and Space

Traits such as clutch size vary markedly across species and environmental gradients but have usually been investigated from either a comparative or a geographic perspective, respectively. We analyzed the global variation in clutch size across 5,290 bird species, excluding brood parasites and pelagic species. We integrated intrinsic (morphological, behavioural), extrinsic (environmental), and phylogenetic effects in a combined model that predicts up to 68% of the interspecific variation in clutch size. We then applied the same species-level model to predict mean clutch size across 2,521 assemblages worldwide and found that it explains the observed eco-geographic pattern very well. Clutches are consistently largest in cavity nesters and in species occupying seasonal environments, highlighting the importance of offspring and adult mortality that is jointly expressed in intrinsic and extrinsic correlates. The findings offer a conceptual bridge between macroecology and comparative biology and provide a global and integrative understanding of the eco-geographic and cross-species variation in a core life-history trait