Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, <it>R</it>, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for <it>R </it>in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An updated estimate of <it>R </it>that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of <it>R</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maximum likelihood estimates of <it>R </it>using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of <it>R </it>did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In order to quantify <it>R </it>from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of <it>R </it>is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.</p

Postpartum-specific anxiety as a predictor of infant-feeding outcomes and perceptions of infant-feeding behaviours: new evidence for childbearing specific measures of mood

Studies of pregnancy-specific anxiety suggest that it is a distinct construct which predicts perinatal outcomes more effectively than other general measures of anxiety. In response, a novel measure of postpartum-specific anxiety (PSAS) has been developed and validated, but it is not yet clear whether it possesses the same predictive power as its pregnancy-specific counterparts. The aim of this short-term prospective study was to (a) test the predictive validity of the PSAS in the context of one specific perinatal outcome, infant-feeding, and (b) examine whether the PSAS may be more efficacious at predicting infant-feeding outcomes and behaviours than the more commonly used general measures. Eight hundred mothers of infants aged between 0 and 6 months completed the PSAS alongside general measures of anxiety and depression at baseline. A subsample (n = 261) returned to complete a follow-up questionnaire examining infant-feeding outcomes and behaviours two weeks later. Hierarchical regression models revealed that the PSAS was associated with lower odds of breastfeeding exclusively, and breastfeeding in any quantity in the first 6 months postpartum. PSAS scores were also significantly associated with infant-feeding behaviours including a lower perceived enjoyment of food, and greater perceived food responsiveness and satiety responsiveness in the infant. As hypothesised, the PSAS was a stronger predictor of infant-feeding outcomes and behaviours than general anxiety and depression. The findings provide evidence for the predictive validity of the PSAS and call for the use of childbearing specific measures of mood when attempting to predict perinatal outcomes. Replication of these findings across other indices of maternal and infant health is now necessary

Sensitive Detection of Plasmodium vivax Using a High-Throughput, Colourimetric Loop Mediated Isothermal Amplification (HtLAMP) Platform: A Potential Novel Tool for Malaria Elimination.

INTRODUCTION: Plasmodium vivax malaria has a wide geographic distribution and poses challenges to malaria elimination that are likely to be greater than those of P. falciparum. Diagnostic tools for P. vivax infection in non-reference laboratory settings are limited to microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests but these are unreliable at low parasitemia. The development and validation of a high-throughput and sensitive assay for P. vivax is a priority. METHODS: A high-throughput LAMP assay targeting a P. vivax mitochondrial gene and deploying colorimetric detection in a 96-well plate format was developed and evaluated in the laboratory. Diagnostic accuracy was compared against microscopy, antigen detection tests and PCR and validated in samples from malaria patients and community controls in a district hospital setting in Sabah, Malaysia. RESULTS: The high throughput LAMP-P. vivax assay (HtLAMP-Pv) performed with an estimated limit of detection of 1.4 parasites/ μL. Assay primers demonstrated cross-reactivity with P. knowlesi but not with other Plasmodium spp. Field testing of HtLAMP-Pv was conducted using 149 samples from symptomatic malaria patients (64 P. vivax, 17 P. falciparum, 56 P. knowlesi, 7 P. malariae, 1 mixed P. knowlesi/P. vivax, with 4 excluded). When compared against multiplex PCR, HtLAMP-Pv demonstrated a sensitivity for P. vivax of 95% (95% CI 87-99%); 61/64), and specificity of 100% (95% CI 86-100%); 25/25) when P. knowlesi samples were excluded. HtLAMP-Pv testing of 112 samples from asymptomatic community controls, 7 of which had submicroscopic P. vivax infections by PCR, showed a sensitivity of 71% (95% CI 29-96%; 5/7) and specificity of 93% (95% CI87-97%; 98/105). CONCLUSION: This novel HtLAMP-P. vivax assay has the potential to be a useful field applicable molecular diagnostic test for P. vivax infection in elimination settings

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

A simple, high-throughput, colourimetric, field applicable loop-mediated isothermal amplification (HtLAMP) assay for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: To detect all malaria infections in elimination settings sensitive, high throughput and field deployable diagnostic tools are required. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) represents a possible field-applicable molecular diagnostic tool. However, current LAMP platforms are limited by their capacity for high throughput. METHODS: A high-throughput LAMP (HtLAMP) platform amplifying mitochondrial targets using a 96-well microtitre plate platform, processing 85 samples and 11 controls, using hydroxynaphtholblue as a colourimetric indicator was optimized for the detection of malaria parasites. Objective confirmation of visually detectable colour change results was made using a spectrophotometer. A dilution series of laboratory-cultured 3D7 Plasmodium falciparum parasites was used to determine the limit of detection of the HtLAMP assay, using P. falciparum (HtLAMP-Pf) and Plasmodium genus (HtLAMP-Pg) primers, on whole blood and filter paper, and using different DNA extraction protocols. The diagnostic accuracy of HtLAMP was validated using clinical samples from Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Ghana and The Gambia and its field applicability was evaluated in Kota Marudu district hospital, Sabah, Malaysia. RESULTS: The HtLAMP assay proved to be a simple method generating a visually-detectable blue and purple colour change that could be objectively confirmed in a spectrophotometer at a wavelength of 600 nm. When compared with PCR, overall HtLAMP-Pg had a sensitivity of 98 % (n = 260/266, 95 % CI 95-99) and specificity 83 % (n = 15/18, 95 % CI 59-96). HtLAMP-Pf had a sensitivity of 97 % (n = 124/128, 95 % CI 92-99) and specificity of 96 % (n = 151/157, 95 % CI 92-99). A validation study in a regional hospital laboratory demonstrated ease of performance and interpretation of the HtLAMP assay. HtLAMP-Pf performed in this field setting had a sensitivity of 100 % (n = 17/17, 95 % CI 80-100) and specificity of 95 % (n = 123/128, 95 % CI 90-98) compared with multiplex PCR. HtLAMP-Pf also performed well on filter paper samples from asymptomatic Ghanaian children with a sensitivity of 88 % (n = 23/25, 95 % CI 69-97). CONCLUSION: This colourimetric HtLAMP assay holds much promise as a field applicable molecular diagnostic tool for the purpose of malaria elimination

Multiplex PCR technique could be an alternative approach for early detection of leprosy among close contacts - a pilot study from India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Implementation of Multi drug Therapy (MDT) regimen has resulted in the decline of the total number of leprosy cases in the world. Though the prevalence rate has been declining, the incidence rate remains more or less constant and high in South East Asian countries particularly in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Srilanka. Leprosy, particularly that of multibacillary type spreads silently before it is clinically detected. An early detection and treatment would help to prevent transmission in the community. Multiplex PCR (M-PCR) technique appears to be promising towards early detection among contacts of leprosy cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 234 paucibacillary (PB) and 205 multibacillary (MB) leprosy cases were studied in a community of an endemic area of Bankura district of West Bengal (Eastern India). They were assessed by smear examination for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) and M-PCR technique. These patients were treated with Multidrug Therapy (MDT) as prescribed by WHO following detection. A total of 110 MB and 72 PB contacts were studied by performing M-PCR in their nasal swab samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>83.4% of MB patients were observed to be positive by smear examination for AFB and 89.2% by M-PCR. While 22.2% of PB patients were found to be positive by smear examination for AFB, 80.3% of these patients were positive by M-PCR. Among leprosy contacts (using M-PCR), 10.9% were found to be positive among MB contacts and 1.3% among PB contacts. Interestingly, two contacts of M-PCR positive MB cases developed leprosy during the period of two years follow up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The M-PCR technique appears to be an efficient tool for early detection of leprosy cases in community based contact tracing amongst close associates of PB and MB cases. Early contact tracing using a molecular biology tool can be of great help in curbing the incidence of leprosy further.</p

Updated measurements of exclusive J/ψ and ψ(2S) production cross-sections in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV

The differential cross-section as a function of rapidity has been measured for the exclusive production of J/ψ and ψ(2S) mesons in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV, using data collected by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 930 pb−1. The cross-sections times branching fractions to two muons having pseudorapidities between 2.0 and 4.5 are measured to be where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The measurements agree with next-to-leading order QCD predictions as well as with models that include saturation effects

Studies of beauty baryon decays to D0ph− and Λ+ch− final states

Decays of beauty baryons to the D0ph− and Λ+ch− final states (where h indicates a pion or a kaon) are studied using a data sample of pp collisions, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0  fb−1, collected by the LHCb detector. The Cabibbo-suppressed decays Λ0b→D0pK− and Λ0b→Λ+cK− are observed, and their branching fractions are measured with respect to the decays Λ0b→D0pπ− and Λ0b→Λ+cπ−. In addition, the first observation is reported of the decay of the neutral beauty-strange baryon Ξ0b to the D0pK− final state, and a measurement of the Ξ0b mass is performed. Evidence of the Ξ0b→Λ+cK− decay is also reported

Measurement of the CKM angle γ\gamma using B0→DK∗0B^0 \rightarrow D K^{*0} with D→KS0π+π−D \rightarrow K^0_S \pi^+ \pi^- decays

A model-dependent amplitude analysis of the decay $B^0\rightarrow D(K^0_S\pi^+\pi^-) K^{*0}$ is performed using proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0fb$^{-1}$, recorded at $\sqrt{s}=7$ and $8 TeV$ by the LHCb experiment. The CP violation observables $x_{\pm}$ and $y_{\pm}$, sensitive to the CKM angle $\gamma$, are measured to be \begin{eqnarray*} x_- &=& -0.15 \pm 0.14 \pm 0.03 \pm 0.01, y_- &=& 0.25 \pm 0.15 \pm 0.06 \pm 0.01, x_+ &=& 0.05 \pm 0.24 \pm 0.04 \pm 0.01, y_+ &=& -0.65^{+0.24}_{-0.23} \pm 0.08 \pm 0.01, \end{eqnarray*} where the first uncertainties are statistical, the second systematic and the third arise from the uncertainty on the $D\rightarrow K^0_S \pi^+\pi^-$ amplitude model. These are the most precise measurements of these observables. They correspond to $\gamma=(80^{+21}_{-22})^{\circ}$ and $r_{B^0}=0.39\pm0.13$, where $r_{B^0}$ is the magnitude of the ratio of the suppressed and favoured $B^0\rightarrow D K^+ \pi^-$ decay amplitudes, in a $K\pi$ mass region of $\pm50 MeV$ around the $K^*(892)^0$ mass and for an absolute value of the cosine of the $K^{*0}$ decay angle larger than $0.4$.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-007.htm