An assessment of areal coverage of severe weather parameters for severe weather outbreak diagnosis

The areal extent of severeweather parameters favorable for significant severeweather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first areal coverage method uses kernel density estimation (KDE) to identify severeweather outbreak locations. Aselected severeweather parameter value is computed at each grid point within the region identified by KDE. The average, median, or sum value is used to diagnose the event's severity. The second areal coverage method finds the largest contiguous region where a severe weather parameter exceeds a specified threshold that intersects theKDEregion. The severeweather parameter values at grid points within the parameter exceedance region are computed, with the average, median, or sumvalue used to diagnose the event's severity. A total of 4057 severe weather outbreaks from 1979 to 2008 are analyzed. An event is considered a major outbreak if it exceeds a selected ranking index score (developed in previous work), and is a minor event otherwise. The areal coverage method is also compared to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day-1 convective outlooks from 2003 to 2008. Comparisons of the SPC forecasts and areal coverage diagnoses indicate the areal coverage methods have similar skill to SPC convective outlooks in discriminating major and minor severe weather outbreaks. Despite a seemingly large sample size, the rare-events nature of the dataset leads to sample size sensitivities. Nevertheless, the findings of this study suggest that areal coverage should be tested in a forecasting environment as a means of providing guidance in future outbreak scenarios. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Synoptic composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks

Tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks occur within the United States and elsewhere around the world each year with devastating effect. However, few studies have considered the physical differences between these two outbreak types. To address this issue, synoptic-scale pattern composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks are formulated over North America using a rotated principal component analysis (RPCA). A cluster analysis of the RPC loadings group similar outbreak events, and the resulting map types represent an idealized composite of the constituent cases in each cluster. These composites are used to initialize aWeather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation of each hypothetical composite outbreak type in an effort to determine the WRF's capability to distinguish the outbreak type each composite represents. Synoptic-scale pattern analyses of the composites reveal strikingly different characteristics within each outbreak type, particularly in the wind fields. The tornado outbreak composites reveal a strong low- and midlevel cyclone over the eastern Rockies, which is likely responsible for the observed surface low pressure system in the plains. Composite soundings from the hypothetical outbreak centroids reveal significantly greater bulk shear and storm-relative environmental helicity values in the tornado outbreak environment, whereas instability fields are similar between the two outbreak types. The WRF simulations of the map types confirm results observed in the composite soundings. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Bayesian Conditioning, the Reflection Principle, and Quantum Decoherence

The probabilities a Bayesian agent assigns to a set of events typically change with time, for instance when the agent updates them in the light of new data. In this paper we address the question of how an agent's probabilities at different times are constrained by Dutch-book coherence. We review and attempt to clarify the argument that, although an agent is not forced by coherence to use the usual Bayesian conditioning rule to update his probabilities, coherence does require the agent's probabilities to satisfy van Fraassen's [1984] reflection principle (which entails a related constraint pointed out by Goldstein [1983]). We then exhibit the specialized assumption needed to recover Bayesian conditioning from an analogous reflection-style consideration. Bringing the argument to the context of quantum measurement theory, we show that "quantum decoherence" can be understood in purely personalist terms---quantum decoherence (as supposed in a von Neumann chain) is not a physical process at all, but an application of the reflection principle. From this point of view, the decoherence theory of Zeh, Zurek, and others as a story of quantum measurement has the plot turned exactly backward.Comment: 14 pages, written in memory of Itamar Pitowsk

The Cosmic Microwave Background and Particle Physics

In forthcoming years, connections between cosmology and particle physics will be made increasingly important with the advent of a new generation of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. Here, we review a number of these links. Our primary focus is on new CMB tests of inflation. We explain how the inflationary predictions for the geometry of the Universe and primordial density perturbations will be tested by CMB temperature fluctuations, and how the gravitational waves predicted by inflation can be pursued with the CMB polarization. The CMB signatures of topological defects and primordial magnetic fields from cosmological phase transitions are also discussed. Furthermore, we review current and future CMB constraints on various types of dark matter (e.g. massive neutrinos, weakly interacting massive particles, axions, vacuum energy), decaying particles, the baryon asymmetry of the Universe, ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, exotic cosmological topologies, and other new physics.Comment: 43 pages. To appear in Annual Reviews of Nuclear and Particle Scienc

Non-Disruptive Tactics of Suppression Are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics

BACKGROUND: Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual's action depends on a subset of others' actions, given by each individual's network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them

Melatonin promoted chemotaxins expression in lung epithelial cell stimulated with TNF-α

BACKGROUND: Patients with asthma demonstrate circadian variations in the airway inflammation and lung function. Pinealectomy reduces the total inflammatory cell number in the asthmatic rat lung. We hypothesize that melatonin, a circadian rhythm regulator, may modulate the circadian inflammatory variations in asthma by stimulating the chemotaxins expression in the lung epithelial cell. METHODS: Lung epithelial cells (A549) were stimulated with melatonin in the presence or absence of TNF-α(100 ng/ml). RANTES (Regulated on Activation Normal T-cells Expressed and Secreted) and eotaxin expression were measured using ELISA and real-time RT-PCR, eosinophil chemotactic activity (ECA) released by A549 was measured by eosinophil chemotaxis assay. RESULTS: TNF-α increased the expression of RANTES (307.84 ± 33.56 versus 207.64 ± 31.27 pg/ml of control, p = 0.025) and eotaxin (108.97 ± 10.87 versus 54.00 ± 5.29 pg/ml of control, p = 0.041). Melatonin(10(-10 )to 10(-6)M) alone didn't change the expression of RNATES (204.97 ± 32.56 pg/ml) and eotaxin (55.28 ± 6.71 pg/ml). However, In the presence of TNF-α (100 ng/ml), melatonin promoted RANTES (410.88 ± 52.03, 483.60 ± 55.37, 559.92 ± 75.70, 688.42 ± 95.32, 766.39 ± 101.53 pg/ml, treated with 10(-10), 10(-9), 10(-8), 10(-7),10(-6)M melatonin, respectively) and eotaxin (151.95 ± 13.88, 238.79 ± 16.81, 361.62 ± 36.91, 393.66 ± 44.89, 494.34 ± 100.95 pg/ml, treated with 10(-10), 10(-9), 10(-8), 10(-7), 10(-6)M melatonin, respectively) expression in a dose dependent manner in A549 cells (compared with TNF-α alone, P < 0.05). The increased release of RANTES and eotaxin in A549 cells by above treatment were further confirmed by both real-time RT-PCR and the ECA assay. CONCLUSION: Taken together, our results suggested that melatonin might synergize with pro-inflammatory cytokines to modulate the asthma airway inflammation through promoting the expression of chemotaxins in lung epithelial cell

Comparative Analysis of Cervical Spine Management in a Subset of Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Cases Using Computer Simulation

BACKGROUND: No randomized control trial to date has studied the use of cervical spine management strategies in cases of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) at risk for cervical spine instability solely due to damaged ligaments. A computer algorithm is used to decide between four cervical spine management strategies. A model assumption is that the emergency room evaluation shows no spinal deficit and a computerized tomogram of the cervical spine excludes the possibility of fracture of cervical vertebrae. The study's goal is to determine cervical spine management strategies that maximize brain injury functional survival while minimizing quadriplegia. METHODS/FINDINGS: The severity of TBI is categorized as unstable, high risk and stable based on intracranial hypertension, hypoxemia, hypotension, early ventilator associated pneumonia, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and age. Complications resulting from cervical spine management are simulated using three decision trees. Each case starts with an amount of primary and secondary brain injury and ends as a functional survivor, severely brain injured, quadriplegic or dead. Cervical spine instability is studied with one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses providing rankings of cervical spine management strategies for probabilities of management complications based on QALYs. Early collar removal received more QALYs than the alternative strategies in most arrangements of these comparisons. A limitation of the model is the absence of testing against an independent data set. CONCLUSIONS: When clinical logic and components of cervical spine management are systematically altered, changes that improve health outcomes are identified. In the absence of controlled clinical studies, the results of this comparative computer assessment show that early collar removal is preferred over a wide range of realistic inputs for this subset of traumatic brain injury. Future research is needed on identifying factors in projecting awakening from coma and the role of delirium in these cases

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation