Alternative Policies for US Economic Recovery

Recovery has begun in the United States and global economies. The US recovery is likely to be anemic by historical standards, raising the possibility that additional stimulus may be desirable. The President and Democrats in Congress have called for a “jobs bill,” and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it has a flexible toolkit for providing additional liquidity if deemed appropriate. The possible need for such stimulus will come up against the reality of an expanding public debt on the one hand, and inflationary concerns on the other. In this paper, I use simulations of the IHS Global Insight Model to assess the potential impact on the recovery path of alternative macro policies.United States (US) recession and recovery, fiscal and monetary policy,econometric model forecast simulation, IHS Global Insight model

Have US-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

The few existing empirical studies of U.S.-Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. In several cases, we find evidence that market-opening trade agreements may have increased the volume of Japanese imports, while other agreements appear to have had no significant impact.Structural break test, U.S.-Japan trade agreements, import promotion policies

Open Capital Account: Concrete Wealth or Paper Wealth

Empirical evidence shows that capital inflows are often used by developing countries to finance excessive consumption. The existing literature explains these phenomena as resulting from institutional imperfections. In contrast, we argue that they can be fundamental outcomes of open capital account, under which ineffectiveness in using foreign savings for investments tends to result in capital inflows being channeled to consumption through wealth effect. Our analysis shows that, while risk aversion causes low investment elasticity and hence reduces the total benefit of capital account liberalization for society over time, it nevertheless tends to increase the benefit enjoyed by current generations and hence drive consumption booms. We show that the proportion of capital inflows used for financing consumption is negatively correlated with investment elasticity. We show that a positive yet uncertain future productivity shock is likely to cause consumption booms because of sluggish investment reactions. Our analysis shows that, the greater the expected future productivity is; or the greater the uncertainty is; the stronger the consumption booms will be. (JEL F21 F32 F41 F43)open capital account; wealth effect; consumption boom; investment elasticity

Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements

Empirical evaluations of trade agreements often rely on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods to detect subsequent changes in trade flows. We conduct a more satisfactory test by evaluating an agreement in the context of a structural econometric model. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where trade agreements may cause structural changes in cointegrating vectors. This approach is applied to study the effect of several U.S.-Japan market-opening trade agreements; in three of seven industries we find evidence of structural change that may be related to trade agreements.structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies

Have U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

The few existing empirical studies of U.S.-Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. In several cases, we find evidence that market-opening trade agreements may have increased the volume of Japanese imports, while other agreements appear to have had no significant impact.structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies

Why East Asian Economies Have Been Sucessful: Some Lessons For Other Developing Countries

By almost any standard, the countries of East Asia have outperformed other developing countries over the past three decades. While there is no "Asian Model" of development, there are some common threads that run through the development experiences of East Asian countries. These include an outward-looking strategy, intrusive but market-oriented government policies, macroeconomic policies that encourage savings and investment, and a social consensus for economic growth. The positive experience of East Asian countries has begun to influence policymakers in other developing regions.

Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax

Tourism taxes have become an important source of revenue or many tourist destinations in the USA. Among the most widely used is the hotel room tax, levied by 47 states and many localities. Room taxes are touted by proponents as a way to shift the local tax burden to non-residents, while the travel industry claims the levies significantly harm their competitiveness. Previous studies of room tax impacts have relied on ex ante estimates of demand and supply elasticities. In this study, we analyse the effect on hotel revenues of the Hawaii room tax using time series intervention analysis. We specify a time series model of revenue behaviour that captures the long-run cointegrating relationships among revenues and important income and relative price variables, as well as other short-run dynamic influences. We estimate the effect on Hawaii hotel room revenues of the 5% Hawaii hotel room tax introduced in January 1987. We find no evidence of statistically significant tax impacts.

Japan's Persistent Trade Surplus: Policies for Adjustment

While part of the recent increase in the Japanese trade surplus can be attributed to the Japanese recession, the surplus has widened despite the appreciation of the yen and enactment of policies to open Japanese markets. We review the trade surplus issue in the light of theories of trade and current account adjustment. We evaluate the potential for exchange appreciation and Japanese fiscal policy to reduce the imbalance, estimating their effects using simulations of the NIRA-LINK model of the US-Japan-world economy. The simulations show that moderate use of macropolicies would not be sufficient to eliminate the trade imbalance.Japanese trade surplus, econometric simulations

Modular Production Networks in Electronics: the Nexus between Management and Economics Research

In the last two decades, the electronics industry has evolved from a vertically integrated industry to a vertically segmented one. This transformation has often been attributed to the modularization of electronic products. In this paper, we argue that the degree of modularity is an active choice variable for a firm. As a result, it is necessary to focus on the underlying factors that drive both modularity and the organization of production. This provides insights into the transformation taking place in global electronics production, with vertical fragmentation, horizontal consolidation, and the growth of Asian electronics production.modularity, electronics, outsourcing, contract manufacturing, East Asia

Electronics Production Upgrading: Is China Exceptional?

In this paper, we make use of a unique world electronics production data set to assess China’s upgrading trajectory in the global electronics industry. Contrary to existing studies, we find no evidence that China’s electronics production activities are more sophisticated than one would expect from its level of development. We also find little evidence that China is rapidly upgrading into more sophisticated production activities.China, industrial upgrading, electronics