The Expansion of Fishery Jurisdiction: Fishery Interests and Congressional Voting

The Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 greatly broadened the scope of U.S. fishery regulation. While the act contained a variety of features, its primary and certainly most controversial provision expanded the regulated fishing zone from 12 to 200 miles. This paper identifies the primary gainers and losers from the act and assesses their roles in influencing the legislative outcome. The voting behavior of congressional representatives is analyzed by multivariate probit analysis in order to quantify the influences of the major lobbying groups.Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

"Financial-Sector Shocks in a Credit-View Model"

A variation of the Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model reveals that holding constant the money supply following various financial-sector shocks, including an autonomous drop in the money multiplier, is insufficient to prevent aggregate demand from decreasing.credit-view model, monetary policy, money-supply model

"The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective"

The relationship between government size and the unemployment rate is investigated using a panel error-correction model that describes both the short-run dynamics and long-run determination of the unemployment rate. Using data from twenty OECD countries from 1970 to 1999 and after correcting for simultaneity bias, we find that government size, measured as total government outlays as a percentage of GDP, plays a significant role in affecting the steady-state unemployment rate. Importantly, when government outlays are disaggregated, transfers and subsidies are found to significantly affect the steady-state unemployment rate while government purchases of goods and services play no significant role.Steady-State Unemployment Rate, Government Size, Error Correction Model, Dynamic Panel Data Model, Arellano-Bond Estimator

"Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model"

This paper examines the dynamic effects of government outlays on economic growth and the unemployment rate. Using vector autoregression and data from twenty OECD countries over three recent decades, we found: (1) positive shocks to government outlays slow down economic growth and raise the unemployment rate; (2) different types of government outlays have different effects on growth and unemployment, with transfers and subsidies having a larger effect than government purchases; (3) causality runs one-way from government outlays to economic growth and the unemployment rate; (4) the above results are not sensitive to how government outlays are financed.government outlays, economic growth, unemployment rate, vector autoregression, Granger causality

Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model

This paper examines the dynamic effects of government outlays on economic growth and the unemployment rate in the context of vector autoregression. We utilize data from 20 OECD countries over three recent decades. Our main conclusions are: (1) positive shocks to government outlays will slow down economic growth and raise the unemployment rate; (2) different types of government outlays have different effects on growth and unemployment, with transfers and subsidies having a larger effect than government purchases; (3) causality runs one-way from government outlays to economic growth and the unemployment rate; (4) the above results are not sensitive to how government outlays are financed.government outlays, economic growth, unemployment rate, vector autoregression, Granger causality

Deregulation for Development: A Tale of Two States

Economic stress led South Dakota and Delaware in the early 1980’s to eliminate their usury laws and enact other enabling legislation in an effort to attract a new industry and new jobs to their states. Sufficient time has now elapsed to assess the success of the policies adopted by these two states. Evidence suggests that both states benefited from their deregulatory actions but in different ways. These successful deregulations provide an important lesson for state-level authorities responsible for determining the regulatory environment.Regional Development, Deregulation, State Government Public Policy

The Political Economy of Wage and Price Controls: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes

On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon imposed the first and only peacetime wage and price controls in U.S. history. The Nixon tapes, personal tape recordings made during the presidency of Richard Nixon, are now available to the public and provide a unique body of evidence to investigate the motivations for Nixon’s macroeconomic policies. We have uncovered and report in this paper evidence that Nixon manipulated both monetary and fiscal policies to create a political business cycle that helped secure his reelection victory in 1972. Nixon was very knowledgeable about economic matters and understood the risks to the economy of his macroeconomic policy actions and the imposition of wage and price controls, but chose to tradeoff longer-term economic costs to the economy for his own short-term political gain.Wage and Price Controls, Political Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Policy

"The Political Business Cycle: New Evidence from the Nixon Tapes"

Drawing from the personal tape recordings made during the presidency of Richard Nixon, we uncover and report in this paper new evidence that Nixon manipulated Arthur Burns and the Federal Reserve Bank into creating a political business cycle that helped secure Nixon’s reelection victory in 1972. Nixon understood the risks that his desired monetary policy imposed, but chose to trade longer-term economic costs to the economy for his own short-term political benefit.Monetary Policy; Political Business Cycle

Do Fixed Exchange Rates Fetter Monetary Policy? A Credit View

The Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model is expanded to encompass a small, open economy with fixed exchange rates. In contrast to conventional wisdom and traditional models, monetary policy is resurrected as a stabilization tool. We show that various financial sector shocks have real aggregate demand effects. Further, we demonstrate that independent monetary policy actions can have substantive impacts on aggregate demand despite perfect capital mobility in bond markets and adherence to a fixed exchange rate regime as long as bank loans are imperfectly mobile.

"Money-Multiplier Shocks in a Credit-View Model"

The financial crisis and recession of 2008-2010 have witnessed the biggest reduction in money-supply multipliers in U.S. history. In contrast to what occurred during the Great Depression, the Fed has avoided decreases in monetary aggregates by dramatically increasing the monetary base. A variation of the Bernanke-Blinder credit-view model is shown to reveal that holding the money supply constant following an autonomous fall in the money multiplier is insufficient to prevent aggregate demand from falling. This helps to explain the severity of the 2008-2010 recession despite growing monetary aggregates and expansionary fiscal policycredit-view model, monetary policy, money-supply model