A new paradigm for the U.S. economy?

Economic conditions - United States ; Business cycles

Economic literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from a laboratory experiment

We present new experimental evidence on heterogeneity in the formation of inflation expectations and relate the variation to economic literacy and demographics. The experimental design allows us to investigate two channels through which expectations-formation may vary across individuals: (1) the choice of information and (2) the use of given information. Subjects who are more economically literate perform better along both dimensions - they choose more-relevant information and make better use of given information. Compared with survey data on inflation expectations, fewer demographic factors are associated with variation in inflation expectations, and economic literacy in most cases accounts for demographic variation in expectations

Social Cue Analysis using Transfer Entropy

Robots that work close to humans need to understand and use social cues to act in a socially acceptable manner. Social cues are a form of communication (i.e., information flow) between people. In this paper, a framework is introduced to detect and analyse social cues and information transfer directionality using an information-theoretic measure, namely, transfer entropy. We demonstrate the framework in three settings involving social interactions between humans: object-handover, group-joining and person-following. Results show that transfer entropy can identify information flows between agents, when and where they occur, and their relative strength. For instance, in a person-following scenario, we find that head orientation of a predictor is particularly informative, and the different times and locations that this is used to convey information to a leader influences their behaviour. Potential applications of the framework include information flow or social cue analysis for interactive robot design, or socially-aware robot planning.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures. Preprin

What makes a die-hard entrepreneur? Beyond the 'employee or entrepreneur' dichotomy

The paper makes three contributions to the economics literature on entrepreneurship. We offer a new measure of entrepreneurship which accounts for variations in persistence in self-employment and as a result avoids the weakness of approaches which categorise an individual as an entrepreneur by observing their occupation at just one point in their career. We outline an econometric methodology to account for this approach and find that it is superior to probit/logit models which have dominated the literature. While our results indicate that this existing literature is good at explaining an individual’s propensity to try self-employment, we find that entrepreneurial persistence is determined by a different model and unearth some new insights into the roles of early career experience, finance, role models, gender and the unemployment push effect

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.

Electron rescattering at metal nanotips induced by ultrashort laser pulses

We report on the first investigation of plateau and cut-off structures in photoelectron spectra from nano-scale metal tips interacting with few-cycle near-infrared laser pulses. These hallmarks of electron rescattering, well-known from atom-laser interaction in the strong-field regime, appear at remarkably low laser intensities with nominal Keldysh parameters of the order of $\gtrsim 10$. Quantum and quasi-classical simulations reveal that a large field enhancement near the tip and the increased backscattering probability at a solid-state target play a key role. Plateau electrons are by an order of magnitude more abundant than in comparable atomic spectra, reflecting the high density of target atoms at the surface. The position of the cut-off serves as an in-situ probe for the locally enhanced electric field at the tip apex

Recurrent Heart Failure after Left Ventricular Assist Device Placement

A host of complications are common after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) surgery. Perhaps none is more challenging to manage than recurrent heart failure (HF). HF in an LVAD patient is associated with substantial morbidity and increased mortality. HF can occur early or late, can present abruptly or insidiously, and can be due to an array of LVAD-specific problems including pump thrombosis and cannula obstruction, or intrinsic cardiac problems such as right ventricular failure or valvular disease. These disparate etiologies require specific testing and distinct therapeutic strategies. This chapter reviews the causes of recurrent HF after LVAD surgery with particular attention to evaluation and management strategies that can identify and treat these distinct etiologies

A Millisecond Interferometric Search for Fast Radio Bursts with the Very Large Array

We report on the first millisecond timescale radio interferometric search for the new class of transient known as fast radio bursts (FRBs). We used the Very Large Array (VLA) for a 166-hour, millisecond imaging campaign to detect and precisely localize an FRB. We observed at 1.4 GHz and produced visibilities with 5 ms time resolution over 256 MHz of bandwidth. Dedispersed images were searched for transients with dispersion measures from 0 to 3000 pc/cm3. No transients were detected in observations of high Galactic latitude fields taken from September 2013 though October 2014. Observations of a known pulsar show that images typically had a thermal-noise limited sensitivity of 120 mJy/beam (8 sigma; Stokes I) in 5 ms and could detect and localize transients over a wide field of view. Our nondetection limits the FRB rate to less than 7e4/sky/day (95% confidence) above a fluence limit of 1.2 Jy-ms. Assuming a Euclidean flux distribution, the VLA rate limit is inconsistent with the published rate of Thornton et al. We recalculate previously published rates with a homogeneous consideration of the effects of primary beam attenuation, dispersion, pulse width, and sky brightness. This revises the FRB rate downward and shows that the VLA observations had a roughly 60% chance of detecting a typical FRB and that a 95% confidence constraint would require roughly 500 hours of similar VLA observing. Our survey also limits the repetition rate of an FRB to 2 times less than any known repeating millisecond radio transient.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 13 pages, 9 figure