EU-MIGRATION IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBERALIZING AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

The paper discusses the relevance of migration in the course of the forthcoming eastern enlargement of the EU focusing on the liberalization of the agricultural markets. The technical basis of this research is represented by the general equilibrium model GTAP comprising a survey of existing applications and own calculations including migration.Labor and Human Capital,

Effects of Aggregation and Model Structure on Model Linkages

Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy,

The challenges of model based policy advice

In policy consultation, communicating model results to administration and policy makers has always proven to be a challenge for scientists. Many of the relevant preconditions for effective and successful policy advice are aggravated when results are based on the simultaneous use of a multitude of different models. This paper identifies key issues – e.g., relations to administration; correct identification of prevailing objectives of all agents involved; ability to run scenarios ‘in time’ - and discusses strategies for successful communication based on the experiences of the vTI model network. Specific attention is paid to the issue of communicating ‘conflicting’ results of different models: while often seen as a source for scientific insight, such ‘inconsistencies’ have proven to be a major obstacle for acceptance in a non-academic institutional setting. The experiences, as well as the literature, point specifically to the importance of tight linkages between modellers and policy makers, and the need to abandon decisionist or technocratic approaches of policy advice in favour of pragmatic approaches stressing the bilateral nature of communication.model network, policy advice, Agricultural and Food Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Implications of Domestic Support Disciplines for Further Agricultural Trade Liberalization

This paper employs the GTAP computable general equilibrium model and dataset to analyse the implications of domestic support reductions in the context of agricultural trade liberalisation. Three specific issues are addressed: overhang in domestic support, the accurate distinction of the boxes in the GTAP dataset and the treatment of market price support in the amber box. An extensive domestic support database is used to calculate the change in applied domestic support rates from a specified cut in bound rates, and to identify the impact on the different domestic support boxes and the required reductions in each support category. The GTAP model is extended to incorporate an explicit representation of the market price support element of the AMS. The results from these extensions of the standard database and model support the view that the impact of an agreement to reduce domestic support will be limited and lower than conventionally estimated. Results of simulations combining domestic support cuts with market access and export competition disciplines show that the effect of import tariff reductions dominate the gains from domestic support cuts once full account is taken of the issues addressed in this paper.WTO agricultural negotiations, domestic support, agricultural protection, Aggregate Measure of Support

The logic of the CAP: Politics or Economics?

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT: WHAT ARE THE AGRICULTURAL TRADE MODELS MISSING?

This paper quantifies the potential impact of European Union enlargement and the consequences of ignoring the non-agricultural component of this integration. We find that agriculture-focused studies offer sound estimates of agriculture-specific production and trade changes, but the estimates of trade volume changes, and welfare gains are far too low.International Relations/Trade,

WOHLFAHRTSWIRKUNGEN EINER HANDELSLIBERALISIERUNG: WELCHEN EINFLUSS HAT DIE ZOLLAGGREGATION AUF DIE MODELLERGEBNISSE?

Die Ergebnisse von modellgestützten Liberalisierungsstudien können maßgeblich durch die Aggregation der Importzölle beeinflusst werden. Gegenstand dieses Beitrags ist die Quantifizierung des Einflusses unterschiedlicher Aggregationsmethoden auf die Wohlfahrtsergebnisse eines multiregionalen und multisektoralen allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells. Ausgehend von derselben Datenbasis werden die Zölle mit dem einfachen und handelsgewichteten Durchschnitt, dem Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) und dem Merkantilistischen Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) von der detaillierten Zolllinienebene auf ein modellkompatibles Niveau aggregiert. Unter Berücksichtigung von gebundenen und angewandten Zöllen wird ein multilaterales Liberalisierungsszenario entsprechend des G20- Vorschlags in den WTO-Verhandlungen gerechnet und die Ergebnisse verglichen.WTO, Agrarhandelspolitik, Zollaggregation, TRI, MTRI, International Relations/Trade,

EU-Migration in the Context of Liberalizing Agricultural Markets

In the last decades migration has become an increasingly regarded topic in economic research in line with the growth of the world's migrant population which more than doubled in the 1960s and 1990s (ILO 2002). Particularly now - in the light of the forthcoming EU Eastern enlargement with 10 middle and eastern European countries accessing the Union - migration gains importance in research even more. With respect to these future developments several studies have been carried out analyzing various issues, like migration incentives or future migration flows in an enlarged EU. Regarding the forthcoming heavy adjustments of Eastern agriculture to the EU's CAP strong impacts not only on agriculture but also on the labor markets will occur. In order to reflect the economic developments in the candidate as well as in the current EU member countries as realistic as possible the simulations carried out in this paper comprise a very detailed modeling of the agricultural market and furthermore incorporate migration flows. The purpose of the different simulations is to point out the relevance of migration issues in the course of regional integration and its influence on the different production sectors.Migration, EU Eastern enlargement, GTAP, Labor and Human Capital,

Im Dschungel der Importz̦lle РDie Bedeutung der verwendeten Methodik bei der Aggregation von Importz̦llen

The results of liberalization studies can be influenced decisively by the methodology of import tariff aggregation. This article deals with different measures used to aggregate import tariffs. Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of different aggregation measures are discussed theoretically. In the empirical part of the paper, the simple average and the trade-weighted average of bound and applied tariffs are calculated for different agricultural products of the EU. The analysis considers ad valorem and specific tariffs as well as tariff rate quotas. Additionally, for the applied tariffs, a distinction is made between MFN-tariffs and bilateral preferential tariff rates. Using the same data base, the product specific Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) and the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) are calculated. Because of the poor data availability at the detailed tariff-line level, a simple partial equilibrium application of these indices is implemented, which can be extended to the whole import tariff data base of an economic trade model. The results show a strong correlation between all aggregation methods, but the size of the import tariffs differs highly, depending on the aggregation measure used. Furthermore, high differences between bound and applied tariffs for some EU agricultural products are calculated.agriculture in international trade, tariff aggregation, bound tariffs, applied tariffs, Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI), Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI), Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag

A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion of the reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects of the revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with an extensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run, projections are implemented in the form of economic developments as well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda 2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997 to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating the Doha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinson proposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenario provides information on the effects on EU trade and budget. The revised Harbinson paper leads to a particularly negative development in the trade balances and production quantities for the agricultural and food sectors of the EU-27, which are supported with high import duties, export subsidies and direct payments. Significant effects could be seen particularly in the cases processed food, beef, fruits and vegetables, other cereals and oils and fats. A decomposition of the total effects of the implementation of the Harbinson paper provides detailed insights in the effects resulting from the changes in the complex protection structure of the CAP. The implementation of the Doha Round of the WTO negotiations leads to a reduction in expenses for agricultural market policy of the CAP, caused especially by the production related reduction in direct payments and the complete dismantling of export subsidies.WTO negotiations, Doha Round, Harbinson paper, GTAP model, agricultural trade, EU budget, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,