Fiscal risks and the quality of fiscal adjustment in Hungary

The government of Hungary has contained the main fiscal risks of the transition to a market economy. It has paid off and resolved most problems in the banking and enterprise sectors. Since 1995 it has implemented fiscal adjustment with the objective of long-term fiscal stability rather than an immediate deficit target. The main result has been pension reform, which has raised temporary deficits but reduced the long-term public liability. Only the health sector awaits the reform needed for long-term fiscal stability. Levels of government spending, budget deficits, and public service remain high, but the government has made great progress toward rationalizing public spending and improving the management of budget and off-budget fiscal risks. In the transition, the government has taken on new fiscal risks--mainly state guarantees and growing programs of credit and guarantee agencies (operating on behalf of the government) organized after privatization to support, first, industries and, later, exporters. The government has dealt with these new programs of contingent government support prudently and transparently, with reasonable ceilings on (and reporting of) risks. Hungary is likely to face pressure for additional spending. Priorities in fiscal policy should include reforming health financing, establishing checks on hidden subsidies in guarantee programs, and determining the government's optimal exposure to risk. In terms of institutions, the government should aim to create a more flexible, responsive budget process and greater capacity to analyze medium-term fiscal risks, to build a more results-oriented budget management system, and to improve mechanisms for sharing risk between the public and private sectors under government programs.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banks&Banking Reform,National Governance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Municipal Financial Management,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

Fiscal adjustment and contingent government liabilities : case studies of the Czech Republic and Macedonia

To control the expansion of government contingent liabilities and reduce fiscal vulnerability, one must be able to identify and measure them. The authors discuss how this may be done and demonstrate how the assessment of fiscal adjustment may change substantially when a broader picture of government liabilities is included. They base their analysis on experience in analyzing fiscal adjustment in the Czech Republic and Macedonia. Their work demonstrates the importance of including contingent liabilities when analyzing fiscal sustainability. To the extent that explicit expenditures are shifted off-budget or replaced by guarantees, the achieved improvement in fiscal balances is overstated. For the Czech Republic, adjustment may have been overstated by some 3 to 4 percent of annual GDP. A stabilization program accompanied by a build-up of contingent liabilities, particularly state guarantees and obligations to cover liabilities emerging from directed credit, may not be sustainable. In Macedonia, the present fiscal equilibrium may be temporary because the stock of existing contingent liabilities could add 2 to 4 percent of GDP to future deficits. And methods used to reduce the"traditional"deficit are unlikely to be sustainable without further modification. The authors conclude that governments: 1) must find better ways to identify and evaluate contingent liabilities arising from the banking system, nonbanking financial institutions, public enterprises, or the contingent and direct liabilities of subnational governments; 2) need to better manage their risks--for example, building adequate reserve funds and hedging risk, where possible; and 3) should examine the implications of the bias toward adding contingent liabilities and develop administrative reform as part of analyzing budget management.Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,National Governance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring