Modelling of efficient distributed generation porfolios using a multiobjective optimization approach

In course of the German power system transition to a higher share of renewable energy sources decentralized activities constitute a major driving force for the growth of renewable en ergy capacity. In this context plural activities and initiatives on the local and regional level are followed to develop concepts for an efficient and sustainable regional energy supply. To achieve these goals various objectives has to be simultaneously accom plished. Generally, these objectives contradict to each other and cannot be handled by a single optimization technique. This paper proposes a multiobjective (MO) optimization approach for iden tifying efficient DG generation portfolios regarding multiple ob jectives. The methodology presented allows the planner to decide the best trade-off between the self-supply degree, environmental impact and electricity generation cost. The proposal applies, in a study case, a MO genetic algorithm that allows identifying a set of non-inferior Pareto-optimal solutions.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Agent-Based Modelling of Cost Efficient and Stable Transmission Grid Expansion Planning

"Due to politically defined goals to raise the share of renewable energy, the landscape of electricity production has changed in recent years. Normally, a decision to invest in new generation capacity by generation com panies is often based on profit maximization criteria. Criteria considering the costs resulting from the required expansion or construction of new transmission capacity are only playing a minor role, if any. This paper introduces an inte grated model based on a multi-agent system to simulate the investment and decision behavior of the relevant entities in the liberalized energy market and their impact on social welfare. The interaction between the modelled market entities is based on a non-cooperative game theoretic approach. Its functionality is demonstrated within a small application example. "CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Investment Valuation in Liberalized Power Markets: Integrating Real Options with System Dynamics

"The proposal is elaborated under a long run market framework, based on System Dynamics simulative approach, and considers for the investment rates to be a function of the value of flexibility of the deferral option, obtained by means of Real Options analysis."CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Analyzing energy storage system for energy arbitrage

The need for integration of renewable energy to the electricity grid promotes research and development of new energy storage technologies, as well as models and techniques to study them. In this sense, the present work proposes a model to evaluate the benefit that can be harnessed through energy arbitrage in function of a daily hourly rate differentiation. The Vanadium Redox Battery is one of the energy storage technologies that have proven most interesting for stationary applications in recent years, especially to medium and large-scale installations. A mathematical model is presented and applied to a case study to evaluate the feasibility of investing in an energy storage system of vanadium redox batteries. The results indicate that at present the capital cost should decrease around 75% to be considered profitable for the case study. Finally, real options approach analysis is suggested to assess the flexibility offered by VRB ESS, such as relocation, expansion and abandonment.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Análisis de Riesgo de Inversiones del Plan de Expansión del Sistema Eléctrico de Potencia Paraguayo bajo Incertidumbre

Un aumento de la demanda de electricidad podría beneficiar a un país en términos de crecimiento económico y desarrollo. En dicho contexto, la planificación del Sistema Eléctrico de Potencia (SEP) debe centrarse en fomentar las inversiones en generación y capacidad de transmisión para abastecer el ritmo del crecimiento de demanda. Por lo tanto, una planificación de la expansión del sistema de potencia inadecuada constituiría el principal obstáculo en un país, para lograr un crecimiento integral. En este sentido, este trabajo pretende evaluar el rendimiento de las inversiones futuras en el SEP del Paraguay bajo incertidumbre, con el fin de obtener un análisis de riesgos. La evaluación se lleva a cabo por medio de un modelo matemático, basado en simulaciones de Monte Carlo y Movimiento Browniano Tendencial para replicar el comportamiento estocástico del crecimiento de la demanda. Con dicho modelo se lleva a cabo el cálculo del Flujo de Potencia Óptimo en DC del sistema eléctrico de potencia paraguayo durante el horizonte 2014-2023, con el objetivo de maximizar el Beneficio Social Incremental (BSI) del país.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Coordination of flexible generation and transmission investments under uncertainty

The liberalization of power markets has led to a paradigm shift in the scope of the generation and transmission expansion planning. The assessment of this issue is complex because of the uncertainties that usually determine the long term evolution of the market. Moreover, and from the point of view of regulators and policy makers, an optimal assessment is of great interest because the lack of coordination between two types of investments can jeopardize competition and efficiency in the whole sector. In this regard, the literature suggests the use of holistic approaches, which are a suitable to address risks associated to the coordination of investments in the power market. This allows regulators to identify an efficient investment alternative, even in scenarios in which the uncertain variables evolve unfavorably. In that context, this paper proposes an improved method to assess the joint Transmission and Generation Expansion Planning segments, considering the inherent flexibility of generation investments, using the Real Options Valuation approach, calculated with the Least Squares Monte Carlo.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Analyzing Feasibility of Energy Storage System for Energy Arbitrage

The need for integration of renewable energy to the electricity grid promotes research and development of new energy storage technologies, as well as models and techniques to study them. In this sense, the present work proposes a model to evaluate the benefit that can be harnessed through energy arbitrage in function of a daily hourly rate differentiation. The Vanadium Redox Battery is one of the energy storage technologies that have proven most interesting for stationary applications in recent years, especially to medium and large-scale installations. A mathematical model is presented and applied to a case study to evaluate the feasibility of investing in an energy storage system of vanadium redox batteries. The results indicate that at present the capital cost should decrease around 75% to be considered profitable for the case study. Finally, real options approach analysis is suggested to assess the flexibility offered by VRB ESS, such as relocation, expansion and abandonment.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Análisis de Interacciones entre Procesos de Expansión de Generación y Transmisión de Energía Eléctrica con Dinámica de Sistemas

La reestructuración de los mercados eléctricos ha supuesto un cambio de paradigma en el ámbito de la toma de decisiones inherente a la expansión de los sistemas de potencia. Principalmente, esto se debe a la inclusión en dichos procesos de diversos agentes autónomos, quienes no siempre actúan de manera coordinada. Atendiendo a esto, el uso de enfoques de simulación resulta de gran utilidad para analizar el comportamiento e interacción de los participantes dentro del mercado. Este trabajo se encuentra enfocado en presentar una revisión del estado del arte sobre la aplicación de la teoría de Dinámica de Sistemas (DS) para replicar la dinámica a largo plazo de inversiones en infraestructura eléctrica en sistemas de potencia. En este sentido, se ha encontrado que DS ha sido empleado extensamente tanto para evaluar la expansión del parque generador, así como el impacto de inversiones en la red de transmisión, requeridas para interconectar distintos mercados eléctricos. Sin embargo, no se han encontrado antecedentes de la aplicación de DS para evaluar la dinámica de la interacción entre decisiones de inversión en generación y transmisión. En este contexto, el principal aporte del trabajo consiste en proponer delineamientos básicos para analizar la interacción de inversiones emprendidas por agentes de generación y transmisión de un mercado eléctrico competitivo, mediante el enfoque de DS. Finalmente, dicho modelo buscará ser una herramienta para delinear políticas que incentiven la coordinación y cooperación entre agentes autónomos del mercado eléctrico.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Power Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning under Uncertainty considering Flexibility in Generation Investments

The process of liberalization of power markets has led to a paradigm shift in the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments. The assessment of this problem is even more complex when considering the uncertainties that usually determine the long-term evolution of the system. Moreover, and from the point of view of regulators and policy makers, an optimal assessment is of great interest because the lack of coordination between the two types of investment can jeopardize competition and efficiency in the whole electricity sector. In this regard, the literature suggests the use of holistic approaches, which necessarily evaluate the risks associated with the coordination of investments in the power system, in order to allow regulators to identify an efficient investment alternative, considering scenarios in which the uncertain variables evolve unfavorably. In this context, this paper test a method to assess the joint expansion planning of the generation and transmission segments, considering the inherent flexibility of generation investments, using the Real Options Valuation approach, calculated with the Least Squares Monte Carlo. In order to validate this method, a case study has been simulated. It is shown that the consideration of investments’ flexibility allows increasing the system-wide social benefit through the coordinated planning of the generation and transmission segments.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Planificación de expansión de generación y transmisión bajo incertidumbre considerando flexibilidad en inversiones de generación.

En este trabajo propone un método de planificación de la expansión conjunta de los segmentos de generación y transmisión, considerando la flexibilidad de las inversiones en el primer segmento, empleando el enfoque de valoración de Opciones Reales, basado en el método Mínimos Cuadrados de Montecarlo. Con el fin de ilustrar la validez del método propuesto, se incluyen resultados del análisis de un caso de estudio, donde se demuestra que la consideración de flexibilidad de las in versiones permite incrementar el beneficio social mediante la coordinación de la expansión de generación y transmisión.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI