206 research outputs found
Steady-state simulation of reflected Brownian motion and related stochastic networks
This paper develops the first class of algorithms that enable unbiased
estimation of steady-state expectations for multidimensional reflected Brownian
motion. In order to explain our ideas, we first consider the case of compound
Poisson (possibly Markov modulated) input. In this case, we analyze the
complexity of our procedure as the dimension of the network increases and show
that, under certain assumptions, the algorithm has polynomial-expected
termination time. Our methodology includes procedures that are of interest
beyond steady-state simulation and reflected processes. For instance, we use
wavelets to construct a piecewise linear function that can be guaranteed to be
within distance (deterministic) in the uniform norm to Brownian
motion in any compact time interval.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1072 in the Annals of
Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Efficient rare-event simulation for the maximum of heavy-tailed random walks
Let be a sequence of i.i.d. r.v.'s with negative mean. Set
and define . We propose an importance sampling
algorithm to estimate the tail of that is strongly
efficient for both light and heavy-tailed increment distributions. Moreover, in
the case of heavy-tailed increments and under additional technical assumptions,
our estimator can be shown to have asymptotically vanishing relative variance
in the sense that its coefficient of variation vanishes as the tail parameter
increases. A key feature of our algorithm is that it is state-dependent. In the
presence of light tails, our procedure leads to Siegmund's (1979) algorithm.
The rigorous analysis of efficiency requires new Lyapunov-type inequalities
that can be useful in the study of more general importance sampling algorithms.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AAP485 the Annals of
Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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