Progression of Geographic Atrophy in Age-related Macular Degeneration AREDS2 Report Number 16

PurposeTo analyze the prevalence, incidence, and clinical characteristics of eyes with geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including clinical and genetic factors affecting enlargement.DesignProspective cohort study within a controlled clinical trial.ParticipantsAge-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, aged 50-85 years.MethodsBaseline and annual stereoscopic color fundus photographs were evaluated for GA presence and area. Analyses included GA prevalence and incidence rates, Kaplan-Meier rates, mixed-model regression, and multivariable analysis of the square root of GA, area adjusted for covariates, including clinical/imaging characteristics and genotype.Main outcome measures(1) Presence or development of GA; (2) change in the square root of GA area over time.ResultsAt baseline, 517 eyes (6.2%) of 411 participants (9.8%) had pre-existing GA (without neovascular AMD), with the following characteristics: 33% central, 67% noncentral; and the following configurations: 36% small, 26% solid/unifocal, 24% multifocal, 9% horseshoe/ring, and 6% indeterminate. Of the remaining 6530 eyes at risk, 1099 eyes (17.3%) of 883 participants developed incident GA without prior neovascular disease during mean follow-up of 4.4 years. The Kaplan-Meier rate of incident GA was 19% of eyes at 5 years. In eyes with incident GA, 4-year risk of subsequent neovascular AMD was 29%. In eyes with incident noncentral GA, 4-year risk of central involvement was 57%. GA enlargement rate (following square root transformation) was similar in eyes with pre-existing GA (0.29 mm/year; 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.30) and incident GA (0.28 mm/year; 0.27-0.30). In the combined group, GA enlargement was significantly faster with noncentrality, multifocality, intermediate baseline size, and bilateral GA (P < 0.0001 for interaction in each case) but not with AREDS2 treatment assignment (P = 0.33) or smoking status (P = 0.05). Enlargement was significantly faster with ARMS2 risk (P < 0.0001), C3 non-risk (P = 0.0002), and APOE non-risk (P = 0.001) genotypes.ConclusionsAnalyses of AREDS2 data on natural history of GA provide representative data on GA evolution and enlargement. GA enlargement, which was influenced by lesion features, was relentless, resulting in rapid central vision loss. The genetic variants associated with faster enlargement were partially distinct from those associated with risk of incident GA. These findings are relevant to further investigations of GA pathogenesis and clinical trial planning

Natural History of Drusenoid Pigment Epithelial Detachment Associated with Age-Related Macular Degeneration Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 Report No. 17

PurposeTo investigate the natural history and genetic associations of drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment (DPED) associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD).DesignRetrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study.ParticipantsOf the 4203 Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2 (AREDS2) participants, 391 eyes (325 participants) had DPED without late AMD at the time of DPED detection. Genetic analyses included 120 white AREDS2 participants and 145 Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) participants with DPED.MethodsBaseline and annual stereoscopic fundus photographs were graded centrally to detect DPED, a well-defined yellow elevated mound of confluent drusen ≥433 μm in diameter, and to evaluate progression rates to late AMD: geographic atrophy (GA) and neovascular (NV)-AMD. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (CFH [rs10611670], C3 [rs2230199], CFI [rs10033900], C2/CFB [rs114254831], ARMS2 [rs10490924]) and genetic risk score (GRS) group were investigated for association with DPED development. Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariable proportional hazard regressions were performed.Main outcome measuresProgression rates to late AMD and decrease of ≥3 lines in visual acuity (VA) from the time of DPED detection; association of rate of DPED development with genotype.ResultsMean (standard deviation [SD]) follow-up time from DPED detection was 4.7 (0.9) years. DPED was associated with increased risk of progression to late AMD (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.98-2.82; P < 0.001); 67% of eyes progressed to late AMD 5 years after DPED detection. Drusenoid pigment epithelial detachment was associated with increased risk of ≥3 lines of VA loss (HR, 3.08; CI, 2.41-3.93; P < 0.001) with 46% of eyes experiencing vision loss at 5 years (with or without progression to late AMD). ARMS2 risk alleles (1 vs. 0: HR, 2.72, CI, 1.58-4.70; 2 vs. 0: HR, 3.16, CI, 1.60-6.21, P < 0.001) and increasing GRS group (4 vs. 1) (HR, 12.17, CI, 3.66-40.45, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with DPED development in AREDS. There were no significant genetic results in AREDS2.ConclusionsThis study replicates the results of previous natural history studies of eyes with DPED including the high rates of progression to late AMD and vision loss (regardless of progression to late AMD). The genetic associations are consistent with genes associated with AMD progression