Migration in Arctic Alaska: Empirical Evidence of the Stepping Stones Hypothesis

This paper explores hypotheses of hierarchical migration using data from the Alaskan Arctic. We focus on migration of Iñupiat people, who are indigenous to the region, and explore the role of income and subsistence harvests on migration. To test related hypotheses we use confidential micro-data from the US Census Bureau’s 2000 Decennial Census of Population and Income and generate migration probabilities using a mixed multinomial and conditional logit model. Our findings are broadly consistent with Ravenstein’s (1885) early hypothesis of step-wise migration; we find evidence of step-wise migration, both up and down an urban and rural hierarchy. We also find that where migrants choose to live is a function of place, personal, and household characteristics.Migration, Hierarchical Migration, Rural to Urban Migration, Arctic Alaska

Interstate Migration in Alaska

Prepared for State of Alaska Office of the Governor Division of Budget and Managemen

Alaska Statewide and Regional Economic and Demographic Systems: Effects of OCS Exploration and Development

Prepared for Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Office Contract Number 29078Ye

Endogenous On-Site Time in the Recreation Demand Model

Careful modeling of on-site time may substantially improve estimates of the benefits of recreational visits using the travel cost method, especially when on-site time in endogenous. This paper review the theory of endogenous on-site time, and shows how the theory may apply to the Random Utility Model (RUM). An empirical example of a two-level, nested-choice model of sport fishing in southcentral Alaska illustrates a discussion of the relative advantages of the different ways to specify endogenous onsite time. (JELQ26)Ye

Technical Report No. 124

This report contains projections and analyses of economic and demographic effects of petroleum exploration and development that may occur in Alaska under the proposed Five-Year program, 1987-1991, for leasing the federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Econometric modeling techniques are used to develop projections for the state of Alaska and the state's Southcentral Region. The projected cumulative effects of the Five-Year Program include an increase of approximately 3 percent in population and employment for both the state and for the Southcentral region. The statewide effects grow during construction of facilities for OCS development and remain relatively constant as petroleum development moves into the operations phase in the late 1990s. Economic activity related to expanded OCS development yields modest new revenues for the state, by the new revenues are not sufficient to offset new demands on public services created by the influx of new residents. The effects grow more slowly in the Southcentral Region, continuing to increase until 2010 to reach or exceed the same percentage increases in population and employment as observed for the state as a whole. The effect of the Five-Year program on Southcentral Region population and employment occurs later than for the state as a whole due to the lags in the multiplier process producing these largely indirect effects.Prepared for Social and Economic Studies Program Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Region under Contract Number 14-12-0001-30139Ye

Technical Report Number 115

This report projects cumulative demographic and economic effects expected from the federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas lease sale program in Alaska. Econometric modeling techniques are used to develop projections including and excluding OCS exploration and development for the state of Alaska and the state's Southcentral region. The projected cumulative effects of the OCS program include and increase of approximately 3.5 percent in state population and employment and a modest decline in real per capita state expenditures. The statewide employment and population effects grow as OCS development proceeds but diminish very slowly as construction employment declines in the late 1990s. The effects grow more slowly in the Southcentral Region, continuing to increase until 2000 to reach or exceed the same percentage increases in population and employment as observed for the state as a whole. The delayed response is due to the importance of the support sector in projected Alaska economic growth, especially in the Southcentral region.Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Region Prepared under contract number 14-12-0001-30139Ye

Estimating Net Benefits of Reallocation: Discrete Choice Models of Sport and Commercial Fishing

Increasing conflicts over allocation have heightened interest among fishery managers in reliable and comparable measures of the relative economic contribution of commercial and sport fisheries. This paper shows how discrete choice methods may be applied to develop comparable estimates of net economic benefits of a proposal to reallocate sockeye salmon from the commercial to the sport fishery in Alaska's Kenai River. The study estimates net benefits that include both market and nonmarket use values for three groups of fishers: sport anglers, commercial drift and setnet operators, and their crew members. Results for a midrange scenario for run size and price suggest that the commercial losses roughly offset sport gains. However, the particulars of this fishery are key to this result. The principal advantages of the discrete choice method are the flexibility of a micro decision model and comparable treatment of time and intangibles across different user groups. The principal disadvantages are increased data requirements and the difficulty of estimating confidence intervals.Ye

Novel actions of next-generation taxanes benefit advanced stages of prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To improve the outcomes of patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), there is an urgent need for more effective therapies and approaches that individualize specific treatments for patients with CRPC. These studies compared the novel taxane cabazitaxel with the previous generation docetaxel, and aimed to determine which tumors are most likely to respond. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cabazitaxel and docetaxel were compared via in vitro modeling to determine the molecular mechanism, biochemical and cell biologic impact, and cell proliferation, which was further assessed ex vivo in human tumor explants. Isogenic pairs of RB knockdown and control cells were interrogated in vitro and in xenograft tumors for cabazitaxel response. RESULTS: The data herein show that (i) cabazitaxel exerts stronger cytostatic and cytotoxic response compared with docetaxel, especially in CRPC; (ii) cabazitaxel induces aberrant mitosis, leading to pyknotic and multinucleated cells; (iii) taxanes do not act through the androgen receptor (AR); (iv) gene-expression profiling reveals distinct molecular actions for cabazitaxel; and (v) tumors that have progressed to castration resistance via loss of RB show enhanced sensitivity to cabazitaxel. CONCLUSIONS: Cabazitaxel not only induces improved cytostatic and cytotoxic effects, but also affects distinct molecular pathways, compared with docetaxel, which could underlie its efficacy after docetaxel treatment has failed in patients with CRPC. Finally, RB is identified as the first potential biomarker that could define the therapeutic response to taxanes in metastatic CRPC. This would suggest that loss of RB function induces sensitization to taxanes, which could benefit up to 50% of CRPC cases

A Regional Interactive Model of a Frontier Economy: Anchorage and the State of Alaska

Ye