Modelling of the Slovak Agricultural Markets - AG-MEMOD Approach

Slovak sectoral partial equilibrium econometric model based on AG-MEMOD approach is used to analyse the development of the selected Slovak agricultural markets after EU accession. Simulation results for cereals and meats are provided in this poster. Two scenarios are analysed: non-accession baseline and accession with adoption of single area payment scheme. EU accession is expected to increase prices of most products, the biggest increase of prices will occur in animal sector. Because of higher prices consumption will go down. Decrease of consumption will be mitigated by income growth. Production will not increase substantially due to decoupling of direct payments. Trade balance for majority of products will improve.partial equilibrium econometric model, Slovak agricultural markets, EU accession, CAP, Industrial Organization,

Assessing the Implications of EU Enlargement for CEEC Agri-food Trade Specialisation

The goal of the paper is to analyse agri-food trade specialisation in seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with their trade groupings over the period 2000-2005, prior to and after their accession to the EU. For these CEECs, we found high agri-food trade specialisation in a relatively small number of commodities. The most competitive commodities in trade with all trade groupings other than the EU-15 were marked by a fairly high level of processing. Over the analysed period the CEE countries did not maintain positions of the most competitive commodities, but at the same time they improved positions of a number of previously uncompetitive commodities. The competitiveness of CEEC agrifood trade commodities declined over the period analysed.agri-food trade, specialisation, Lafay index, Markov matrices, new EU Member States, International Relations/Trade,

Agri-food Trade Specialisation Pattern in the New EU Member States

The paper analyses development of agri-food trade specialisation pattern in eight EU Member States of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements (NMS) during the period 2000 – 2005. Over the period analysed, the NMS were not able to hold trade positions in the most competitive commodities, but on the other hand, positions of a number of previously uncompetitive commodities improved. We show convergence of dynamism of agri-food trade specialisation across NMS in trade with the partners/groupings investigated.agri-food trade, specialisation, EU Member States of 2004 and 2007 enlargements, International Relations/Trade,

Slovak Agricultural Markets Under Alternative CAP Scenarios - AG-MEMOD Modelling Approach

Slovak sectoral partial equilibrium econometric model based on AG-MEMOD approach is used to analyse the development of the Slovak agricultural markets after EU accession. Simulation results for cereals, oilseeds and meats are provided in this article. Two scenarios are analysed: non-accession baseline and accession with adoption of single area payment scheme. EU accession is expected to increase prices of most products, the biggest increase of prices will occur in animal sector. Because of higher prices consumption will go down. Decrease of consumption will be mitigated by income growth. Production will not increase substantially due to decoupling of direct payments. Trade balance for majority of products will improve.partial equilibrium econometric model, EU accession, Slovakia, agricultural markets, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, C51, Q11, Q18,

Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States

The paper presents an analysis of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy implementation on the agricultural markets of the eight new EU Member States. The study is based on the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber states MODelling) national econometric models. Two scenarios are simulated for each country. The "Baseline" scenario assumes the implementation of the Single Area Payment Scheme until 2008 and the subsequent introduction of the Single Payment Scheme from 2009 onwards. Complementary national direct payments would remain in force until 2013. The second scenario assumes the full decoupling of direct payments from 2007 and the introduction of modulation from 2013 onwards in the 2004 enlargement new Member States (EU-8). The baseline scenario projections suggest that the introduction of direct payments would expand EU-8 aggregate production, mainly of oilseeds, grains, sheepmeat and cheese, while beef and veal production would also increase. Consumption of more expensive beef and veal meat would be substituted by poultry and pigmeat. Full decoupling of direct payments will have only a moderate impact on the balance of supply and use for crop and animal production.commodity markets, CAP reform, new Member States, econometric model, Marketing,

EU Dairy Quota Reform – AGMEMOD Scenario Analysis

This study provides an in-depth model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the dairy policy reform on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU27, EU15, EU12 and the individual MS. The objectives of the study are threefold: 1. to assess the implications of changing policy and market conditions on EU agriculture with special emphasis on milk quota phasing out and export subsidy removal by using a modelling tool; 2. to carry out policy relevant scenarios reflecting deregulation (e.g. quota abolition), changes in quota and price levels, different types and levels of direct payments; and 3. to analyse the implications of policy reform scenarios and to draw appropriate policy recommendations. Based on an overview of the existing approaches used to analyse the dairy market, the necessary adjustments to the AGMEMOD model are developed. Projections are made under a baseline of no policy change for a time horizon of 10 years for selected individual MS, the EU15 in aggregate, EU12 in aggregate (12 MS from May 2004), and the EU27 in aggregate. This baseline is contrasted with a series of scenarios which involve an increase and eventual elimination of the EU milk quota. The increase in EU milk production under the scenarios is smaller than the increase in milk quota. Milk quota rents fall to zero relatively quickly due to rising input costs and falling milk prices. However, the milk price path under the scenarios is not hugely different to that of the baseline, so it can be said that the general international market conditions in dairy and animal feed are the main drivers of the observed outcomes. In some MS, expansion potential is quite strong and in such cases production continues to expand even after quotas are removed in those scenarios which involve a larger milk quota expansion in advance of its elimination.Milk Quota, Policy Analysis, Partial Equilibrium Modelling., Agricultural and Food Policy,

HODNOTENIE KOMPARATIVNYCH VYHOD PRODUKCIE NA PODNIKOVEJ UROVNI S VYUZITIM MATICE ANALYZY POLITIKY

The comparative advantages of the rape-seed production were quantified by policy analysis matrices (PAM). Analysis was conducted on the data of selected agricultural cooperatives located in different growing conditions. The indicators DRC, CC, NEB, IVA of relative comparative advantages were derived from the results of PAM. Comparative static compensated PAM disadvantages, namely static concept and data availability (1997 only). Scenarios were based on world price decrease expectations, the influence of exchange rate policy and abolishment of subsidies. Under these conditions, a loss of comparative advantages of the rape-seed production was observed in agricultural cooperative

Modelling of the Slovak Agricultural Markets - AG-MEMOD Approach

Slovak sectoral partial equilibrium econometric model based on AG-MEMOD approach is used to analyse the development of the selected Slovak agricultural markets after EU accession. Simulation results for cereals and meats are provided in this poster. Two scenarios are analysed: non-accession baseline and accession with adoption of single area payment scheme. EU accession is expected to increase prices of most products, the biggest increase of prices will occur in animal sector. Because of higher prices consumption will go down. Decrease of consumption will be mitigated by income growth. Production will not increase substantially due to decoupling of direct payments. Trade balance for majority of products will improve

CHUDOBA V OBCIACH SR

The paper analyses relevant indicators of the living conditions of Slovak inhabitants and evaluates poverty in the Slovak Republic in 1996 by type of settlements. The assessment of poverty was based on Microcenzus (1997) data of average net income per member of household. Incidence, depth and severity of poverty were quantified by headcount, poverty gap and Foster-Greer-Thoerbeck indexes using the World Bank software Povcal. The highest incidence was found in the settlements with 5, 000 to 10,000 inhabitants, which make approx. 6.7 % of the total population of Slovakia. From the viewpoint of extreme poverty, the most serious situation was revealed in the settlements up to 500 inhabitants (approx. 6.1 % of total population). Relatively low was observed in the settlements with a population of over 50,000 (approx. 24.9 % of total population)

A Critical Survey of Databases on Tariffs and Trade Available for the Analysis of EU Agricultural Agreements

Applied trade analysis and modeling would not be possible without databases. Over the last few years, a considerable effort has been devoted to put together and harmonize a huge amount of data. This has lead to the construction of large-scale datasets on trade (imports and exports in volume and value terms). In parallel, increasing attention has been devoted to measuring tariffs and other trade barriers. These efforts are still under way. It is only recently that large-scale models, for example, have taken into account the lower tariffs applied under preferential agreements (the former generation of models only considered the "bound" tariffs that act as a ceiling in many countries). The changes resulting from the introduction of better data on tariffs have been very significant, and many institutions have revised considerably their estimates of, say, gains resulting from trade liberalization (Ackerman 2005). However, empirical difficulties faced by modelers suggest that there is still a need for improvement, especially in the area of applied tariffs and tariff rate quotas. The aim of this study is to review the main data sources dealing with world tariffs and trade. After discussing some issues and methodology, we provide a brief description of the main datasets available in terms of the origin of the data, its accessibility, reliability and shortcomings