Rules of Origin in the Africa-EU Strategic Partnership Agreement and Nigeria’s international trade

This paper examines the key issues and assesses the impact of the rules of origin (RoO) and cumulation on Nigeria’s international trade within the context of Africa-EU partnerships agreements. The review of literatures shows that RoO are an important element in determining the final benefit associated with the bilateral trade relationship under preferential trade agreements. It notes that Africa-EU bilateral trade relations dates back to the Lome Conventions that gave preferential entry into EU of some products, and now to the new Africa-EU partnership which lays less emphasis on RoO. An analysis of available data show that RoO have had limited impact on Nigeria’s exports trade with the EU since her major exports (crude oil) does not benefit from RoO. Instead, there has been an increase in intermediate imports from EU which suggests trade creation in favour of EU while the rising trend in trade within Africa could be the result of bilateral cumulation and intra-Africa FTAs/economic integration. The paper further argues that the increase in trade with USA and others may be the result of trade reorientation as a result of switching from EU to other cheaper partner countries, especially USA in the face of AGOA. Among the challenges which militate against the RoO are: global reduction in tariff by WTO and the changing focus of the objectives of Africa-EU partnership principles from PTA to regional support. In concluding, the paper notes that the new partnership agreements needs to reconsider its position on RoO as it is a potent tool that is mutually beneficial in partnership. As such, the EU must go beyond the WTO GSP and AGOA to give preferential treatment to goods originating from Africa

Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries

This study examines the effect of independent exchange rate policy, relative to other determinants, on global export performance of WAMZ countries. The regression results show that exports originating from the Zone to the rest of the world are influenced positively by domestic output, export prices and exchange rate devaluations, but negatively by import price and economic performance of the major global trading partner, proxied by the US GDP. This result is not universal as the Gambia, Ghana and Guinea total exports functions show that exchange rate policy penalized exports contrary to the Nigerian case in which the coefficient estimate is significant and positive. The study infers that these results are consistent with theoretical expectation given the ironical divergence in export basket. Although they are all primary commodity exporters, Nigeria’s exports is mainly crude oil, and a priori expectation is that rapid economic growth or booms in the US should lead to increased demand for energy (healthy competitions). In conclusion, the study infers that since independent flexible exchange rate policy makes no difference to the Zonal export performance ex ante, but have great potential for global exports collectively, they could explore an OCA to enhance both intra- and global inter-regional export trade.Exchange rate policy, export trade, panel data regression model, WAMZ

Determinants of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)countries global export trade: do foreign reserves and independent exchange rates matter?

This study examines the effect of independent exchange rate pursuits and reserve holdings, relative to other determinants, on global export performance of WAMZ countries. The regression results show that exports originating from the Zone to the rest of the world are influenced positively by domestic output, export prices and exchange rate devaluations, but negatively by import price and economic performance of the major global trading partner, proxied by the US GDP. This result is not universal as the Gambia, Ghana and Guinea total exports functions show that exchange rate policy penalized exports contrary to the Nigerian case in which the coefficient estimate is significant and positive. The study infers that these results are consistent with theoretical expectation given the ironical divergence in export basket. Although they are all primary commodity exporters, Nigeria’s exports is mainly crude oil, and a priori expectation is that rapid economic growth or booms in the US should lead to increased demand for energy (healthy competitions). In conclusion, the study infers that since independent flexible exchange rate policy pursuits and reserve holdings makes no difference to the Zonal export performance ex ante, but have great potential for global exports collectively, they could explore an OCA to enhance both intra- and global inter-regional export tradeExchange rate policy, export trade, panel data regression model, WAMZ

A review of Soludo's perspective of banking sector reforms in Nigeria

This paper focuses specifically on the recent Soludo’s banking sector reforms. The study noted that the Soludo’s reforms focused on strengthening the financial systems through banking sector consolidation, foreign exchange market stabilization, interest rates restructuring and the pursuit of stabilization as against structural adjustment policies for monetary and inflationary controls. A review of theoretical qualifications to the Soludo’s reform show that in thoughts, it is rooted in the Classical traditions of Say’s Law, acts monetarist, but expects a Keynesian outcome that money can stimulate expansion in aggregate domestic output. In concluding, the study noted the need to adopt an interest rate operating procedures for monetary policy in addition to moving the economy consciously towards the ‘law of one market and one price’ for the domestic and foreign money markets.Monetary Policy; Reforms;

Rules of Origin in the Africa-EU Strategic Partnership Agreement and Nigeria’s international trade

This paper examines the key issues and assesses the impact of the rules of origin (RoO) and cumulation on Nigeria’s international trade within the context of Africa-EU partnerships agreements. The review of literatures shows that RoO are an important element in determining the final benefit associated with the bilateral trade relationship under preferential trade agreements. It notes that Africa-EU bilateral trade relations dates back to the Lome Conventions that gave preferential entry into EU of some products, and now to the new Africa-EU partnership which lays less emphasis on RoO. An analysis of available data show that RoO have had limited impact on Nigeria’s exports trade with the EU since her major exports (crude oil) does not benefit from RoO. Instead, there has been an increase in intermediate imports from EU which suggests trade creation in favour of EU while the rising trend in trade within Africa could be the result of bilateral cumulation and intra-Africa FTAs/economic integration. The paper further argues that the increase in trade with USA and others may be the result of trade reorientation as a result of switching from EU to other cheaper partner countries, especially USA in the face of AGOA. Among the challenges which militate against the RoO are: global reduction in tariff by WTO and the changing focus of the objectives of Africa-EU partnership principles from PTA to regional support. In concluding, the paper notes that the new partnership agreements needs to reconsider its position on RoO as it is a potent tool that is mutually beneficial in partnership. As such, the EU must go beyond the WTO GSP and AGOA to give preferential treatment to goods originating from Africa.Rules of origin; international trade; Africa-EU partnership; Lome Conventions; preferential trade agreements.

Alternative reconsideration of output growth differrential for the West African Monetary Zone

This paper examines the determinants of output growth differentials from set convergence criteria in a panel of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) states. Drawing largely from micro-founded models, rooted in New Keynesian traditions, the study shows that widespread divergence of output growth rates of participating countries from ideal benchmarks calls to question the ability of independent monetary and exchange rates policy as instruments of national/regional macroeconomic stabilization, the preconditions for unionization. Using a stylized 5-country model of WAMZ area, the differences in national output growth/demand is analyzed in the light of country specific shocks or differences in the monetary transmission mechanisms. The main results show that business cycles (output shocks) stabilization around a desired target was not attained. Over the sample period, the un-weighted average regional GDP growth rates were very slow, vary widely among the countries and responded very poorly to independent monetary policy stance. The strong output growth rates divergence among these countries suggest a reconsideration of output convergence as pre-condition for unionization.Growth rates differentials; Output convergence; exchange rate; WAMZ members; and panel data

An Empirical Test of Trade Gravity Model Criteria for the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)

This study gauged the effects of output co-variability, intra-industry intensity of trade and endogenous features of the countries such as common language, border, or colonizer, etc. on bilateral trade. The results confirm that similarities in business cycles influence bilateral trade among the countries. While the positive effects of the real GDP variable coefficient estimate confirms the assertion in the literature that larger countries exert a greater gravitational pull on imports and push to exports (Nigeria accounts for approximately 60 per cent of the GDP, land mass and population of the group), the negative sign of the per capita income variable coefficient estimate is also consistent with expectation that poorer countries (in per capita terms) tend to have lesser trade. Also, the coefficient estimates of the intra-industry trade intensity variables were significant. While the positive sign of the intra-industry trade in agricultural commodities suggest that it can, ceteris paribus, lead to trade creation within the region, the negative sign of the agricultural and mineral commodities is reflective of the Krugman’s specialization effects arising from the fact that Nigeria is a major exporter of crude oil. It was inferred that these results portends that improvements in per capita incomes of WAMZ countries could invariably be associated with greater trade in the absence of trade barriers and if supported with common currency. This was confirmed by the significance of the trade dummies included in the model.Exchange rate policy, export trade, panel data regression model, WAMZ

Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries

This study examines the effect of exchange rate policy on the bi-lateral intra-WAMZ and global inter-WAMZ export trade, with a view to gauging its relative veracity among other determinants. The regression results show that the coefficient estimates of bilateral exchange rate (variable of interest in this study) was not significant in explaining the changes in the bilateral intra-WAMZ exports. This is not the case with the world inter-WAMZ regression results in which one of the partner’s exchange rate is significant and positively influences their collective exports to the rest of the world. This result is considered interesting as it tends to validate the assertion that exchange rates does not matter much to intra-WAMZ exports to warrant its use as an instrument of bilateral trade stimulation, but can potentially be useful as a common tool of balance of payment adjustment against the rest of the world (third parties). In conclusion, the study inferred that the maintenance of independent flexible exchange rate policy by either party to the bilateral trade makes no difference in terms of export performance, and may indeed constitute an impediment to free trade within the WAMZ region. Among the impediments identified are the microeconomic costs of foreign exchange conversion and high incident of trade diversion associated with it.Exchange rate policy, export trade; panel data regression model; WAMZ

Inflation differential in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) area:Implications for unionization

This paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in a panel of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) states vis-à-vis its set benchmark for macroeconomic convergence since 2000 to date. Using a stylized 5-country model of WAMZ area, the differences in national inflation is analyzed in light of country specific shocks or differences in the monetary transmission mechanisms. The main results show macroeconomic (price) stabilization around a desired target was not attained. Over the sample period, the un-weighted average regional inflation rates were most often above a single digit target and vary widely among the countries. The major monetary policy instruments determinants of inflationary divergence are the pursuit of distorted interest rates, exchange rates overvaluation and expansionary monetary policies, which penalized credit and accentuated output supply/demand gaps.Inflation differentials, price convergence, exchange rate, WAMZ members, panel data

Monetary policy and economic performance of West African Monetary Zone Countries

This study examined the monetary and macroeconomic stability perspective for entering into monetary union, using data available on WAMZ countries. It tests the hypothesis that independent monetary and exchange rate policies have been relatively ineffective in influencing domestic activities (especially GDP and inflation), and that when they do, they are counter productive. Usiing econometric methods, regression result show that, erstwhile domestic monetary policy, as captured by money supply and credit to government hurt real domestic output of these countries. Indeed, rather than promote growth, it was a source of stagnation. It also confirms that there appear to be a two quarters lag in monetary policy transmission effect with regard to real sector output. The results also show that although expansion in domestic output dampened aggregate consumer prices (inflation), it was however, not adequate enough to dampen the fuelling effects of past inflation. This was accentuated by money supply variable (MS2) and aggravated by exchange rate variable which are mostly positive, confirming the a priori expectations that rapid monetary expansion and devaluations fuels domestic inflation. A country by country comparison of the single and simultaneous equations model results show that expansionary monetary policy contributed more to fuelling prices than it did to growth. It also shows that interest rates policy had adverse effects on GDP by exhibiting a positive sign contrary to the theoretical expectation of an inverse relationship. The results also show that exchange rate devaluations manifest mainly in domestic inflation and have no effect at all on the growth variable, in the short term. The study concludes that these countries would be better-off to surrender its independence over these policy instruments to the planned regional body under appropriate monetary union arrangements.International Monetary Economics; Econometric studies