The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (LURNZv1: Model Description)

This paper documents the first version of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model (LURNZv1). It describes the overall modelling approach, the database underlying the model, and the construction of each module within the model. The model is econometrically estimated from national time series data and spatially extrapolated using economic and geophysical variables. It is primarily a simulation model but is also set up to produce predictions based on future price scenarios. The model output includes projections of four types of rural land use under different scenarios and 25 ha grid maps of where land use, and changes in land use, are likely to occur.simulation model, land use, dairy, sheep, beef, forestry, reverting indigenous forest

Achieving ‘step changes’ in science and innovation: Towards ‘Pasteur’s paddock’?

​The Request for Proposals for New Zealand’s National Science Challenges (NSCs) emphasises that successful proposals should ‘represent a significant step change in undertaking research and delivering impact’ (MBIE 2014). How can a ‘step change’ be achieved within NSCs where new funding is small compared to realigned funding? In a video released on 4 February 2014, the Minister for Science and Innovation suggests an expectation that ‘additionality’ will play a key role, with ‘collaborative’ and ‘multidisciplinary’ endeavour as important compo-nents of these ‘mission-led’ Challenges (Joyce 2014). This brief communication reviews and describes a timely synthesis of two important components of the science and innovation literature relevant to the ‘step change’ and ‘additionality’ expectations in NSCs

Greenhouse gas emissions charges and credits agricultural land: what can a model tell us?

Using the simulation model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1 -climate (LURNZv1-climate), we simulate the effects of an agricultural land-use emissions charge and a reward for native forest and scrub regeneration. Our results are preliminary and at this stage should be considered illustrative. We find that, on its own, an agricultural emissions charge based on solely on land use would be disruptive and may not be very effective in reducing emissions. In addition, we find that including an additional policy that rewards regenerating forest and scrub without a similar reward for plantation forestry might negatively impact on plantation forestry, increasing emissions growth in the short-run. We are currently developing a second version of LURNZ-climate, which will be more robust and thus lend more weight to our future results.Climate change, land use, methane, nitrous oxide, dairy, sheep, beef, Government policy