Modelling gravitational instabilities: slab break-off and Rayleigh-Taylor diapirism

A non-standard new code to solve multiphase viscous thermo–mechanical problems applied to geophysics is presented. Two numerical methodologies employed in the code are described: A level set technique to track the position of the materials and an enrichment of the solution to allow the strain rate to be discontinuous across the interface. These techniques have low computational cost and can be used in standard desktop PCs. Examples of phase tracking with level set are presented in two and three dimensions to study slab detachment in subduction processes and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, respectively. The modelling of slab detachment processes includes realistic rheology with viscosity depending on temperature, pressure and strain rate; shear and adiabatic heating mechanisms; density including mineral phase changes and varying thermal conductivity. Detachment models show a first prolonged period of thermal diffusion until a fast necking of the subducting slab results in the break–off. The influence of several numerical and physical parameters on the detachment process is analyzed: The shear heating exerts a major influence accelerating the detachment process, reducing the onset time to one half and lubricating the sinking of the detached slab. The adiabatic heating term acts as a thermal stabilizer. If the mantle temperature follows an adiabatic gradient, neglecting this heating term must be included, otherwise all temperature contrasts are overestimated. As expected, the phase change at 410 km depth (olivine–spinel transition) facilitates the detachment process due to the increase in negative buoyancy. Finally, simple plume simulations are used to show how the presented numerical methodologies can be extended to three dimensions.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption

Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution

Instant tsunami early warning based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case study

Taking the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an example, we demonstrate the ability of real-time GPS to provide qualified tsunami early warning within minutes. While in earlier studies we demonstrated the power of the so-called GPS shield concept based on synthetic data, we here present a complete processing chain starting from actual GPS raw data and fully simulate the situation as it would be in a warning center. The procedure includes processing of GPS observations with predicted high precision orbits, inversion for slip and computation of the tsunami propagation and coastal warning levels. We show that in case of the Tohoku earthquake, it would be feasible to provide accurate tsunami warning as soon as 3 min after the beginning of the earthquake

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

Abstract. We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150 × 25) and employ the concept of Green’s functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near realtime GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution

Landslide tsunami hazard in the Indonesian Sunda Arc

The Indonesian archipelago is known for the occurrence of catastrophic earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Sunda Arc. The tsunami hazard associated with submarine landslides however has not been fully addressed. In this paper, we compile the known tsunamigenic events where landslide involvement is certain and summarize the properties of published landslides that were identified with geophysical methods. We depict novel mass movements, found in newly available bathymetry, and determine their key parameters. Using numerical modeling, we compute possible tsunami scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a way of identifying landslide tsunamis using an array of few buoys with bottom pressure units